Investor investment in U.S. trade deals boost Asian currencies

Betting, currency trading will form part of trade talks with the U.S., which will help boost a range of Asian currencies against the dollar as traders are looking for signs that countries will propose shrinking interventions to appease President Donald Trump.

South Koreans won, the yen and Taiwan dollar gathered strongly in recent weeks, making them the best-performing currency in Asia this year, expecting a reduction in comprehensive U.S. trade tariffs will involve how countries manage the dollar exchange rate.

"The market is likely to think that the U.S. will seek to introduce certain languages ​​as part of a broader trade agreement with certain trading partners," said Nathan Venkat Swami, head of FX trading at Citigroup Asia Pacific.

"The exchange rate will be part of the negotiations," said an investor at a large Chinese fund. "The market will move forward before the negotiations are published."

A large amount of reserves of wealthy Asian exporters, such as Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, have raised speculation.

Timothy Moe, co-head of Asian macro research at Goldman Sachs, said the Asian currency’s “a bit of a curly spring.” “The appreciation of the currency is in its current state.”

Many businessmen and analysts believe that when Washington negotiated depreciation with Japan, Britain, France and West Germany, a so-called Mar-A-Lago agreement was conducted in the style of the 1985 Square Agreement, a large multilateral currency agreement in the style of the 1985 Square Agreement.

Instead, they say the market is expecting a series of smaller bilateral currency transactions to strike more easily. Meera Chandan, co-head of FX strategy at JPMorgan, said, "It may be easier to reach a bilateral agreement than a unilateral agreement."

Last week, it was later confirmed in South Korea that it won as much as 2.2% of the shares, and the report discussed exchange rates with the United States in early May.

WON's move comes after a historic surge in the Taiwanese dollar earlier this month, after speculation that U.S. trade talks will drive higher currencies. The market is seen by the market as a lack of intervention by the central bank in Taiwan, which is a sign of the policy shift towards allowing currency appreciation.

A portfolio manager in Hong Kong said the recent growth of the Taiwan dollar is a signal of “government changes” from the central bank to the market.

Taiwan’s central bank said at the time that the U.S. Treasury Department did not ask for monetary appreciation as part of the negotiations.

However, more and more analysts believe that the United States can use limited monetary intervention as a condition of a trade deal.

Chris Turner, Global Market Leader at ING, said: “At this stage, I hope that any FX transaction will be in line with the commitment to free-floating exchange rates and limiting FX interventions, especially the interventions that sell local currencies.”

Forex traders from the region are adjusting their expectations that local currencies are a long-term trend.

"I don't think appreciation will be as vertical as it happened in early May," said a treasurer at a Taiwanese Life Insurance Company who works for FX. "But we do agree that appreciation moves are a trend."

When lawmakers asked about sharp appreciation on Wednesday, Taiwan’s Central Bank Deputy Governor Yen Tzung-ta said managing exchange rate volatility was the main issue.

Traders in the region will have the shape of any trade agreement that Japan has reached with the United States as key to determining what is happening in other currencies in the region,” said a portfolio manager in Hong Kong. This will have a “door knock effect” on other Asian currencies.

According to investors and analysts, the yen and renminbi anchor regional exchange rates.

Trade talks between Japan and the United States have been delayed as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's deeply unpopular government declares a complete exemption of tariffs in an attempt to win voters before the July election.

As most analysts predict, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Treasury Secretary Katsunobu Kato did not reach a formal agreement on monetary action during a meeting held by Canada's G7 financial meeting in Canada.

However, there is an unusual affirmation in a statement from the U.S. Treasury that the exchange rate should be determined by the market, and the current dollar exchange rate reflects fundamentals.

Gato said at a press conference that the exchange rate level did not discuss exchange rate levels, nor did Japan's large holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds.

Before the meeting, Tokyo analysts speculated that the conditions that Nomura chief FX strategist Yujiro Goto called "hidden transactions" already existed.

Despite being the first country to conduct formal tariff negotiations with Trump, Japan's efforts to reduce the 25% levy of cars have not yet produced any results. But the U.S. may now agree to raise the yen in Tokyo to a road closer to 3% to 5% of the dollar, so the U.S. may now agree to lower 10% to 10%, Goto said.

Goto said that if the Japanese bank insists on working to raise interest rates, and any verbal interventions by the yen government as the yen rises sharply, the yen will rise naturally.

As for the RMB, Goldman Sachs now predicts that in the next 12 months, it will thank RMB7 to the US dollar from the current RMB7.20.

"This situation is conducive to the market allowing for a gradual appreciation of the yuan," Goldman Sachs' church said. "This can open the door for the yen, win and other currencies such as the Taiwanese dollar for further appreciation."

Other reports from Haohsiang Kong