Last week's Indian-ruled Kashmir declared that the deadly armed attack on Pahalgam, where 26 civilians lived, has rekindled the sense of grimness towards Indian security forces and diplomats.

This is a familiar reason. In 2016, India launched a "surgical strike" throughout the control line - the de facto border between India and Pakistan - targeting radical bases.

In 2019, the Pulwama Bombing killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, prompting air strikes to penetrate Balakot - the first operation inside Pakistan since 1971 - triggered retaliatory attacks and air combat.

Prior to this, the horrific 2008 Mumbai attack - 166 people were taken away in a 60-hour siege at a hotel, a train station and a Jewish center.

Every time, India holds an armed group responsible for the attack in Pakistan, accusing Islamabad of supporting them by default - Pakistan's allegations have been denied.

The threshold for escalation has changed dramatically since 2016, especially after the 2019 air strikes. India's cross-border and air strikes have become new norms, causing revenge from Pakistan. This further exacerbates the already fluctuating situation.

Experts say India once again finds itself walking the rope between escalation and restraint - a fragile balance of response and deterrence. One who understands this recurring cycle is Ajay Bisaria, the former high commissioner of Pakistan in India, who captures the consequences in his memoir, Anger Management: Diplomatic Relations between India and Pakistan.

Mr. Bisaria told me 10 days after the recent attack: “There are striking similarities between the consequences of the Pulwama explosion and the killings in Pahargam.”

However, he noted that Pahalgam marked the transition. Unlike Pulwama and Uri targeting security forces, the attack hit civilians - tourists from all over India - evokes memories of the 2008 Mumbai attack. He explained: “This attack carries elements of Pulwama, but more of Mumbai.”

“We are in conflict again and the story goes nearly the same way,” Bisaria said.

A week after the latest attack, Delhi took retaliation measures to act quickly: closing major border crossings, suspending a key water classification treaty, expelling diplomats, and halting most visas for Pakistani nationals - they were sent for days. In recent days, both sides have exchanged intermittent small arms fires.

Delhi also bans all Pakistani aircraft - commercial and military - airspace, which reflects early operations in Islamabad. Pakistan suspended retaliation with its own visa and suspended its 1972 peace treaty with India. (Kashmir has been declared by India and Pakistan since the 1947 division, but is imposed by various parts of India and Pakistan.)

Bisaria tells the story of India's reaction after the February 14, 2019 attack on Pulwama.

The next morning he was summoned to Delhi because the government quickly moved the cessation of trade - revoking the status of the kindest state granted to Pakistan in 1996. In the next few days, the Cabinet Security Committee (CCS) imposed 200% customs duties on Pakistani goods, imposed 200% customs duties on Pakistani goods, effectively terminated import trade and suspended trade on land borders in Wagah.

Mr Bisaria noted that a broader range of measures were also proposed to reduce interaction with Pakistan, most of which were subsequently implemented.

These include suspension of a cross-border train called Samjhauta Express, and bus services connecting Delhi and Lahore; negotiations between border forces on both sides and negotiations in the historic Qatarpur Corridor and one of the most sacred shrines of Sikhism, cessation of visas, cessation of visas, banning of visas from the borders, banning India from traveling to Pakistan, and suspending flights between the two countries.

"I want to build trust how difficult it is. How easy it is to break it," Bisaria wrote.

“In this difficult relationship, all confidence-building measures for planning, negotiation and implementation can be cut by yellow notepad within minutes.”

The strength of the Islamabad High Commission for India has been reduced from Pulwama to 55. (Now is 30 years old after the Pahalgam attack.) India also launched a diplomatic offensive.

The day after the attack, then Foreign Minister Vijay Gokhale introduced the role of Jaish-e-Mohammad to the special envoys from 25 countries including the United States, Britain, China, Russia and France, a radical group in Pakistan as a bombing and accused Pakistan of terrorism as its national policy. Jem was designated as a terrorist organization by India, the United Nations, the United Kingdom and the United States, claiming to be responsible for the bombing.

On February 25, 10 days after the attack, India's diplomatic offensive continued, pushing the designation of Masood Azhar of the UN Sanctions Commission as a terrorist and put it on the EU's "autonomous terrorist list".

Bisaria wrote that despite pressure to abolish the Indian Water Treaty, a key river-water sharing agreement, India chose to withhold any data that exceeded the treaty’s obligations. A total of 48 bilateral agreements were reviewed to carry out suspensions. A full party meeting was convened in Delhi, leading to a unanimous resolution.

Meanwhile, communication channels remain open - including the hotline (DGMO) between the general directors of military operations of the two countries, the main link between military and military contacts, as well as two senior commissions. Now, in 2019, Pakistan said the attack was a "false action."

Just like this time, Kashmir’s crackdown was the arrest of more than 80 “ground workers” – local supporters may provide logistical assistance, shelters and intelligence to militants from Pakistani organizations. At that time, India's interior minister Rajnath Singh visited Jamu and Kashmir and prepared archives of the attacks and prepared suspected perpetrators.

Bisaria told her during a meeting with Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj: “India has limited diplomatic options in dealing with terrorist attacks of this nature”.

"She gave me the impression that some tough action was done around the corner, after which I should expect the role of diplomacy to expand," Mr Bisaria wrote.

On February 26, the Indian air strikes - crossing international borders for the first time since 1971 - targeted Jem's training camp in Balakot.

Six hours later, the Indian Foreign Minister announced that the strike killed “a large number of” militants and commanders. Pakistan quickly denied this claim. More high-level meetings followed in Delhi.

On February 27, when Pakistan launched a retaliatory air strike, the next morning, the crisis escalated sharply.

In the ensuing dog strike, an Indian fighter was shot down and its pilot wing commander Abhinandan Varthaman was ejected and landed in Arimir Kashmir, Pakistan. His detention on enemy territory sparked a wave of national concern and further exacerbated tensions between two nuclear-weapon neighbors.

Mr. Bisaria imposed multiple diplomatic channels in Islamabad with the special envoys of the United States and Britain. India’s message is “Any attempt by Pakistan to further escalate the situation or cause harm to the pilot will lead to escalation in India.”

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan announced the release of the pilot on February 28 and handed over on March 1 under the POW agreement. Pakistan uses the “good gesture” as a tension that aims to relieve tension.

By March 5, as the dust from Pulwama, Balakot and the pilot returned, the political temperature in India had cooled. The Cabinet Security Committee's decision to send India's high commissioner back to Pakistan indicates a shift to diplomacy.

Mr Bisaria wrote: “I arrived in Islamabad on March 10, 22 days after Pulwama left.

"India is willing to give old-fashioned diplomacy another opportunity. ... This is the concept that India has achieved strategic and military goals, and Pakistan has won victory for its domestic audience."

Mr. Bisaria described it as a “test and interesting period” as a diplomat. He noted that the key difference this time was that the target was Indian civilians and the attacks took place “ironically, when the situation in Kashmir improved significantly, the attacks took place.”

He believes that upgrading is inevitable, but points out that there is also a "degraded instinct of upgrading instinct". He said when the Cabinet Security Council (CCS) met during such conflicts, their decision weighed the economic impact of the conflict and sought measures to hurt Pakistan without sparking backlash against India.

"The body language and optical functions are similar (this time)" he said, and he believes that the most important move is: India threatens to eliminate the Indian waters treaty. “If India takes action on this, it will have long-term, serious consequences for Pakistan.”

"Remember, we're still in the middle of a crisis," Bisaria said. "We haven't seen any dynamics (military) action yet."