As rains approach this weekend, the risk of debris flows, a type of landslide that can cause serious damage, is increasing in recently burned areas of Los Angeles County.

Currently, there is a 10% to 20% chance of severe debris flows in recently burned sensitive areas of Los Angeles County; this is up from the previous estimate of 5% to 10%. The risk of debris flow in other burn scars remains 5% to 10%.

Among burn scars, the Eaton burn scar and the Palisades burn scar are the most concerning.

"The most likely outcome is that there could be some shallow mudslides that would be less impactful, but the threat is significant enough that we at least want to emphasize that," National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Kittle said Friday afternoon. "

The period of greatest concern is between 4 p.m. Sunday and noon Monday, when the storm system's heaviest rainfall is likely. This is also a time when thunderstorms are possible in the area.

Kittel said there is a 15 to 25 percent chance of thunderstorms occurring anywhere and at any time during this rainfall.

A flood watch will be in effect from 4pm Sunday to 4pm Monday for areas recently burned including the Eaton, Palisade, Franklin, Hughes and Bridge fires. Flood watches will not cover wildfire burn scars in Ventura County.

Forecasters expect rainfall amounts in isolated areas could range from half an inch to three-quarters of an inch per hour, Kittle said. If these speeds occur in recently burned areas, debris flows are possible.

But most areas should see rainfall rates of one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch per hour. The intensity of this rate is beneficial, but not intense enough to initiate a debris flow or debris flow.

Cumulative rainfall amounts from Saturday to Monday may be higher than initially expected. Los Angeles and Ventura counties could now see half an inch to an inch, with up to 2 inches in the mountains.

The increased rainfall is expected to be the result of a low-pressure system descending from Canada that appears to be a little further west and away from the Southern California coast than initially expected, which will make the storm wetter. .

Snowfall amounts may also be higher than initially expected. Snowfall levels are possible as low as 3,500 feet, with 6 to 12 inches possible in the San Gabriel Mountains. Kittle said the Grapevine section of Interstate 5 could get 1 to 2 inches of snow, but the accumulation could be less or more.

Kittel said delays are expected on mountain roads.