Donald Trump has been polling the president badly for the first 100 days of his tenure, but the White House’s 2026 mid-term strategy will be permeated with Trump himself while trying to recreate the energy behind his 2024 campaign.
Republicans and top White House advisers generally believe that the mid-term map is good for them in the Senate, but more important in the air on the House side. But the number of Trump’s polls — at least so far, has become an unpopular, tariff-led economic policy — some Republicans fear both rooms could be at risk.
According to nearly 12 Republican agents and interviewed by Trump adviser NBC News, the goal for 2026 is to try to overcome negative economic sentiment by rekindling the energy Trump brings in voting, a Republican who has surpassed Republicans in recent special congressional and state-level elections, a need for Democrats to surpass Republicans.
House and Senate leaders have been closely linked to the White House, involving key candidates who will benefit from Trump’s recognition, both in the first driving and juniper election support. His political action was millions of dollars in clear political groups that competed heavily in the midterm with the Republican Party Committee and the Congressional Chief Super PAC. The Supreme Republican then hopes that other members of the party tend to favor Trump’s message, causing his supporters to vote in 2026.
"Efforts need to push that energy. In some states, his approval will be very beneficial, depending on the candidates, trying to copy his message to inspire turnout," working for Trump's 2024 campaign.
Reisner added that some of the most intense Trump voters who supported him in the presidential election cycle did not always appear in non-presidential games, which was amplified in recent special elections, most notably in the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, where Democrats performed well compared to political make-up in various regions. She said getting those voters engaged as if Trump was on the ballot would be the key to Republicans next year.
"We obviously know that there is motivation and angry liberals may vote," Resner said. "We can't flesh ourselves out too much, nor do we think we have the perfect messaging. There are some center-right voters who vote for President Trump, who said, "Of course we will win, 'but we need to make sure these people meet. ”
With the formation of midterm elections, most of the dynamics will be related to immigration policy and economic policy.
Trump’s handling of immigration has resulted in a substantial reduction in border crossings on the southern border, which often gives voters a higher mark, and the White House is eager to talk about it. But his decision to impose tariffs on most parts of the world has sent a shock wave through financial markets and has a political ripple effect that could undermine the confidence of the Republican Party if the government does not cut a series of trade deals in the near future.
"The president's economic policy has been disastrous for this tariff competition, right?" said longtime Republican donor. "It's disastrous. I think it really makes the Senate work. I mean, I think it puts a lot of pressure on the house.
The person added: "If they don't announce some deals, I mean, over the next two weeks, I think they'll have real problems."
However, Republicans do have serious chances in the Senate, and Democrats can flip by winning four seats. Senator Jon Ossoff (D-Ga). Meanwhile, the only Republican senators who appeared in danger were Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.
Before he won the game last year, Georgia had been Trump's problematic area, marked by Ossoff and Sen. Raphael Warnock's runoff victory in January 2021 and a failure to try to beat GOP GOP Gov. Brian Kemp.
But Trump adviser, who was spoken frankly, said Trump would support Republican leaders in a challenge to Osov, despite past tensions.
"He will no doubt approve of Kemp," the man said.
Trump plans to endorse the Senate and House primary elections by the midterm, including “in the competition seat”, with particular attention to how incumbents vote on Trump’s legislative priorities this year.
So far, there has been some delay between Senate Republican leaders’ recognition in key races and Trump’s remarks. South Carolina's Tim Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senate Committee and South Dakota Majority Leader John Thune, all supported former Senate Senate bids in Michigan. They also support Sen. John Cornyn's re-election in Texas, who will face a major battle with state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Trump has no recognition in any game.
Trump advisers say his lack of immediate recognition among those races should not be interpreted as a sign of his distance from Senate Republican leaders, who spoke to him before gaining early recognition.
"I'll tell you that without some sort of direction, they won't act so aggressively," the adviser said. "The president may be leaning towards Mike (Rogers).
A person familiar with NRSC thinking said no endorsed decisions were made without "making sure the White House knows what happened." ”
There was some tension between the White House and Scott, who ran against Trump in 2023, then he quit the Republican game and later recognized him. Some heartburn comes from Scott's attempt to hire staff members who are believed to be working on groups that are opposed to Trump.
Trump advisers barely downplay potential tensions, providing Scott's leadership with less than Juniper's approval.
"I mean, he's fine, I think," the man said.
Spokeswoman Joanna Rodriguez said the NRSC is on the same page as Trump.
“Republicans are working with President Trump to serve the American people, protect and develop our majority in 2026 and hold Senate Democrats and candidates accountable for their radical, touch priorities and dishonest phobia,” she said in a statement.
White House advisers say the White House does plan to deploy “our own resources” in the medium term through a series of super PACs and other vehicles, suggesting that its political store will run its own campaign strategy, not just rely on partisan campaign groups such as the NRSC.
"I think (the White House) will deploy a lot of resources on its own," the adviser said. "Anyone who seeks a huge contribution will be disappointed. I think it will be a protracted trench war, and we have ammunition."
Republicans say the interim data are encouraging despite the small number of Trump’s personal votes. Internal polls touted by the National Republican Congress Committee this week found that Democrats are basically related to Republicans, a general vote for possible voters in the competitive House area. At this point in the mid-2018 cycle, Democrats took a six-point lead in the measure during Trump’s first administration.
Some recent media polls have found that on the brink of mistakes, Democrats have a slight advantage in the national universal voting test. There will also be a lot of changes in years more than a year before the midterm elections, but Republicans hope these numbers hint that approaching 2022, when Democrats performed better than expected in President Joe Biden's lonely midterm elections (although they still nearly lost their house).
"This is a small map," said House Republican strategist. "If you look at 2024, there are 10 games that won with 5,000 votes or less."
A person close to the White House was shared anonymously, pointing out that Trump's poll numbers, while skewed, were better than in 2017. However, the man also warns that external factors, such as depression or economic depression in the Middle East or escalating wars, may change the trajectory.
Still, Trump is a big attraction, the man said the biggest mistake a Republican could make is to get him on his side job.
"They should hope that Trump is willing anywhere and anywhere for the very simple fact that we now have empirical evidence that there are a large number of voters who are not automatic Republican voters - they are automatic Trump voters," said a source close to the White House.
House Republican strategists agreed.
"The whole final game of 2026 is to get these Trump voters to vote again," the man said. "That's what we all are trying to figure out - if we can get these presidential voters out to vote in the mid-term. So the president is helpful. These are his voters, and we need to keep them out. And, no one picks those voters better than Donald J. Trump."
Democrats only need to purify three seats to flip the house, but Republicans can find hope in some of the housing map fronts. According to the election results analysis of NBC News' decision-making station, Democrats won the 13 Houses last year, with only three Republicans compared to the seats won by Kamala Harris.
"This is a map we can attack," Trump adviser said.
The people close to the White House, who are willing to send Trump to wherever he wants to go, is not sure how much he wants to run for and envisions a situation where Donald Trump Jr. and Vice President JD Vance will rally nationwide. Vance is expected to succeed Trump in 2028, and he can improve Trump by a successful support role in the midterm. The man added that he could be deployed heavily in key matches.
“Between the president, vice president and Don GOP Jr., Republicans actually have three surrogate people who can drive the serious media anywhere and attract a large crowd,” the man said.
Republicans also see a favorable Senate map — “In terms of open seats and their positions,” said Greg Manz, a Michigan Republican strategist, who is an adviser to Trump’s 2020 campaign.
Manz saw Trump visit Macomb County, Michigan this week, a group of Detroit suburbs known for their "Reagan Democrats" - heralding a strong focus on the country.
Trump announced new fighter jets as an endangered Air National Guard base and hosted bipartisan events, including Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat who may become president in 2028, and Rep. John James, who runs for Whitmer, who will be appointed as restricted next year.
Michigan's governor's game, seats in the U.S. Senate Open, and several competitive House seats including James in McCum County, will be key races in the country.
"As much time as possible at Macomb, it will be key," Manz said. "Manz also has the name Pennsylvania and New York that is important for House games, where Republicans believe Trump has the unique ability to conduct Republican votes.
There is concern that if Democrats occupy the House, they may impeach Trump for a third time, which his political action has already come to mind. In fact, it hopes to keep the concept in headlines as a reminder of Republican voters' stake in mid-2026.
Trump advisers dismissed the concept of Democrats winning the House, despite how close profit margins are. "But it's about making sure voters remember the benefits of the midterm elections," the consultant said.