The two parties in the conflict are not Stark as the Russian and Ukrainian delegation landed in Istanbul on Friday in an attempt to end the Three Years of War in Ukraine. Organized seems to be guaranteed - clarify its goals. Another, scattered and uncertain.

Russia's position on the outline of potential reconciliation has long been evident - it has been leverage besides its ambiguity on territorial affairs. Moscow continues to push for the return to Istanbul agreement, and now the UK and we are derailed in spring 2022. At the same time, it demands the retention of the territory occupied since then, and perhaps even more of the meaning.

By contrast, the status of the pro-Ukrainian alliance is chaotic. The United States has taken an almost neutral stance, while Ukraine and its European allies are working to prevent Washington from putting pressure on Kiev to see what they see as premature birth and unjust peace.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that the Trump administration is open to any mechanism that could end the conflict. Meanwhile, Ukraine and its European partners insist on a 30-day ceasefire as a prerequisite for participating in peace negotiations.

Just before the Istanbul negotiations began, Ukraine announced that its delegation would not discuss anything with the Russians until it agreed to a ceasefire. European countries support this demand, claiming they are ready to impose threats of serious sanctions. Whether Ukraine will eventually reduce such demand remains a key point in uncertainty as direct negotiations were held in Istanbul on Friday afternoon.

When negotiators come out of the venue and face the media, they don’t get the answer. The two sides agreed to continue negotiations, but the ceasefire was still on the table - perhaps a measure to avoid superficiality, which would bring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on board the ship. It is extremely unlikely that the Russians would agree to any ceasefire until they see a clear path to the final deal.

But the goal of this ceasefire game is too transparent, especially for its scheduled audience: Donald Trump's administration. The ceasefire is clearly against Russia, whose main leverage in negotiations is the slow and steady progress of its troops along the frontline of more than 1,000 kilometers.

The demand in Ukraine and Europe is intended to be rejected. Its real purpose is to make negotiations undermine, fight against Trump against Putin, and restore a long-term strategy to try to defeat Russia by combining enhanced military support for Ukraine and new economic sanctions against Moscow.

This strategy is nothing new – Ukraine has paid a huge price in the past three years: the loss of vast territory and critical infrastructure, thousands of people were killed, and 6.9 million (mainly women and children) may leave the country forever.

In response to its manipulation, Russia sent a delegation that exceeded expectations of political status, but included top military and diplomatic experts who were able to discuss all technical aspects of possible deals. News: Moscow is ready for substantive negotiations - if they go beyond the performative final state.

Russia's position on the outline of the settlement has not changed since the last negotiations in Istanbul in spring 2022, when it insisted on a neutral Ukraine with its military-sized ceiling.

The only difference now is territory. Under the framework of Istanbul in 2022, Russia will withdraw its existing links before a full invasion. Now, it claims to have occupied territory since then - and maintains strategic ambiguity in various parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Helsen and Zaporizhzhia, but still under Ukraine's control, using it as a bargaining chip.

Since the beginning of the entire invasion, Moscow has viewed territorial occupation as a stubborn form of punishment for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova said bluntly on Thursday: “Ukrainian territory shrinks every time Ukraine refuses to negotiate.”

But territory is not the Kremlin's main goal in Ukraine. Its core goal is to draw a hard red line for further Western military expansion near its borders, thus requiring the restoration of Ukraine's neutrality and minimization of its armed forces. However, Moscow is open to the idea of ​​Ukraine joining the EU - especially because the prospect remains unlikely, as Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe see Ukraine's agricultural sector as a threat to its economic stability.

Given the current situation on the battlefield, the war can only end with Russian terms - something harsh and unjust. This is highlighted by the daily gains of the Russian army and the slow territorial losses of Ukraine. Every delay in peace negotiations will lead to smaller Ukraine. Putin acts like a political racketer - like those who ran during the political period he grew up in: the longer you resist, the more you pay.

However, an agreement on these terms will be very difficult - for the Ukrainians and Europeans, they have also experienced significant economic impacts on Russia. The inevitable question arises: What have the Ukrainians fought and died in the past three years? They could have received better deals in 2015, and even better deals in 2022 Istanbul failed deals.

What Ukraine maintains in combat is fantasy - cultivated by the complexity of military industry and psychological operations on social media, that nuclear forces like Russia can be decisively defeated.

Now, fears are about becoming a major contributor to Ukraine’s pain with Russia – along with Russia – now pushing European politicians to continue to dig a deeper hole for Ukraine and its leaders, rather than in President Trump’s failure to acknowledge (or quietly reshape) in President Trump, which should not happen first.

But now almost all the cards are on the table. The hallucination is discarded by a person. The idea of ​​France and Britain deploying NATO forces in Ukraine was almost put on hold - which would make the conflict from proxy wars to direct NATO-Russian conflicts. Meanwhile, the EU is preparing to reduce the duty-free trade quota for Ukraine’s imported goods, which has helped maintain Ukraine’s economy over the past three years. This is a clear signal that Brussels no longer regards continuing war as a continuing war forward.

The Baltic and Baltic states tried to open the second front in the Ukrainian war by targeting the so-called Russian "shadow fleet" (the tanker that helped Moscow protect Western sanctions, and both Nordic and Baltic states were trying to open the second front in the Ukrainian war, one of the last efforts of the Nordic and Baltic states.

But the recent attempt to board such a ship ended with Russian fighter jets that violated Estonian airspace - a clear warning of what will happen next.

The West is not ready for a confrontation with Russia—not to mention the nuclear conflict that will almost certainly come with it. But there are many alternative win-win strategies. Ukraine will gain the most from peace – once firmly established. The real losers will be the political class and security elites who have invested so much in illusory results.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own views and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.