Sunrise - We will never know.

Has the NHL suspended Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk, punished Jake Guentzel in Game 3, and did it change the tenor in Game 4?

We will never know.

Will this make a difference in the first stage without scoring if Nikita Kucherov was awarded to Nikita Kucherov when his stick was broken by an intruder online in a breakout from the court?

We will never know.

Can Lightning stay ahead if Brandon Hagel isn't eliminated by an illegal elbow that has never been summoned?

We will never know.

But here is what we know:

The Panthers are a strong, talented team. And there seems to be less lightning.

This means another lightning season is the brink of doom in Game 4 Monday's 4-2 loss to the Panthers.

"What's happening in sports is happening in sports, and I think that's what makes watching interesting," said Victor Hedman. "It's obviously on the wrong side."

It feels as if Lightning is already on the wrong side of many of the flash points in this series, but in the end, that's not the only reason they beat the Stanley Cup 3-1.

They lost because their league's best offense stagnated in the playoffs. They are lost because their power play is trapped in a never-ending pass cycle, not the camera. They failed because Andrei Vasilevskiy was solid but didn't steal a game for them.

They lost because they couldn't keep the lead 2-1 with the remaining five minutes on Monday night.

Do you know how dramatic the 11-second swing in the third stage is? I mean, obviously, the rebound’s two blast goals, while the deflection takes less time to remove the beer from the fridge in Florida favor.

But that's much more than that.

Tampa Bay is only five minutes from the series. Five minutes away from the Panthers' momentum. Five minutes away from turning the series into two-thirds.

Instead, history says that teams that trailed 3-1 in the NHL seven-game series continue to lose more than 90%.

In other words, that 11 seconds brought lightning from Rhapsody to near weapons.

"We're going to learn from this and learn from it," said Lightning striker Mitchell Chaffee. "We're not done yet. ”

Technically, this is true. Actually, it feels like it's over. Last season, the Chargers won a game by defeating Florida 3-0. They won a game by defeating Toronto 3-1 in 2023. They beat Colorado 3-1 in 2022 and won a game before bowing.

That doesn't mean Tampa Bay won't be able to win three consecutive games against the Panthers over the next six days, but considering the opponent and after Aaron Ekblad midway through the second phase, considering the opponent might not be able to get Hegel.

Lightning gambled 11 forwards instead of the usual 12 in Game 4, and ended up playing 10 games after Hegel returned to the locker room. This means Brayden Point, Guentzel and Kucherov ended up playing about 24-25 minutes to make up for the missing depth.

It's not extraordinary time on the ice, but it's a team targeting the heavier batsmen of Florida and Florida.

Tampa Bay's high octane offense not only struggles with scoring, but also creates scoring opportunities. They entered Monday night's game with the remaining 16 teams, averaging 21 in the playoffs.

In Game 4, they scored 20 shots.

In the power game, Lightning failed to score more clearly on their last 14 chances with the man's advantage.

"It's unfortunate," said Lightning coach Jon Cooper. “We performed enough to win two games (Sunrise), and we were a little short of that.”

Tampa Bay's offense has hardly changed to playoff mode. They are still trying to get the perfect pass and score a nice goal instead of attacking Florida tennis and hope to beat the dirty goals of rebounds, deflections and funnels.

This is exactly how the Panthers scored two goals in the third stage. Vasilevskiy blocked Sam Reinhart's shot but the rebound fell on Ekblad's stick, which he easily knocked down. Eleven seconds later, Seth Jones drove a hail Mary from 66 feet away, and the puck seemed to deflect Ryan McDonagh's skateboard, then swung between Vasilevskiy's right arm and Torso, sliding it into the net.

Can Lightning win Game 4 if Lightning is more aggressive and gets more shots?

We will never know.

John Romano can access jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @Romano_TBTimes.

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