Fear of Russia brings the Western alliance together. Now, there is concern that Russia may break it down.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was established in 1949 by the United States, Canada and European allies to stop Moscow. But if the Trump administration now tries to force Ukraine to accept partial failures in the war with Russia, it will be widely seen in Europe as a reward for Russian aggression. If NATO allies no longer agree on the threat they face and how to deal with it, their entire alliance will be at risk.
Over the past few decades, the Atlantic Alliance has survived many profound differences - from Suez in 1956 to the wars of Vietnam and Iraq, because there is always an understanding that, ultimately, the United States and its European allies are on the same side.
The United States-European partnership is based on shared interests and values. Throughout the Cold War, a common interest was to contain the Soviet threat. Common values are a defense of democracy. Even after that war, a war to terror and protect new European democracies provided a common purpose for NATO.
But this common understanding is now in trouble. The disastrous conclusions of the Ukrainian war may be completely snapped up.
The United States and Europe have been pushing different peace plans for Ukraine over the past week. Europeans reject key elements of Trump’s plan – most importantly, the legal recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Donald Trump appeared to have a friendly conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Rome Ukraine over the weekend - and the U.S. leader also ventured to make rare criticisms of Vladimir Putin. However, the United States has not withdrawn any element of the peace plan that Europeans and Ukrainians consider so offensive.
The fundamental reason for this disagreement is the conception of international security and the threat to the next war comes from this. Europeans believe that rewarding Russia's aggression in Ukraine would allow Putin to start attacking other parts of Europe from the Baltic states.
The Trump administration has a very different view of things. Worryingly, the United States may eventually be dragged into a direct conflict with Russia. Trump himself repeatedly warned of the risks of World War III. The Biden administration is also concerned about the risks of escalation with Russia. But unlike Trump, it shares Europe's deep suspicion of Putin and determines that Russian aggression should not be rewarded.
Now, the difference in security vision goes far beyond the question of how to end the Ukrainian war. The U.S. allies must face the reality that Trump directly threatens the territory of two NATO members.
Trump has repeatedly vowed to include Greenland, which is Denmark's autonomous part, into the United States. In a recent interview with Time magazine, he also reiterated his desire to turn Canada into the 51st state in the United States. Trump has not yet posed an open military threat to Canada. But he obviously wanted to eliminate his existence as an independent country.
Combining these authoritarian instincts, his threat to NATO allies and his obvious sympathy for Putin - it is hard to say that NATO is still an alliance based on shared values.
Indeed, the conflict of value has now been made public. The United States and its largest European allies continue to argue that they are defending democracy. But both believe (or claim to believe) that democracy is threatened on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.
In a famous speech at the Munich Security Conference, JD Vance accused the United States of Europe of suppressing freedom of speech and fearing its own people. In much of Europe, the vice president's allegations have been met with cold anger - Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 U.S. presidential election and his attacks on U.S. judiciary, media and universities have not escaped.
The Trump administration and its European allies are now preaching two contradictory ideas about Western values. Vance-Trump's vision is nationalist, culturally conservative and liberal. Europeans are internationalists and are based on laws and liberal institutions.
The department is even more painful because both sides believe it is a survival struggle for political survival and seeking allies on the other side of the Atlantic. The Trump administration hopes to work with nationalist populists such as Viktor Orbán of Hungary, Robert Fico of Slovakia or Nigel Farage of the UK. Major European governments hope Kamala Harris will win the U.S. presidency and are now desperately counting the days of the U.S. midterm elections.
The Transatlantic Alliance was once a bipartisan commitment and could easily survive the changes in government. Now it works only if the liberals (or liberals) are in power on both sides of the Atlantic.
Even then, there are still questions. In addition to common values and interests, the Western alliance also depends on trust. All parties need to know that everything that happens in the next election will last. But Europeans and Canadians now know that the United States has the ability to elect Trump twice. They can no longer take America's unwaveringness for granted.
gideon.rachman@ft.com