Donald Trump began his second term exactly as predicted: with a flurry of executive orders, memos, oaths, musings and outrageous rhetoric. The world has at least a year to prepare for the return of an "America First" agenda to the White House. No one can say they are surprised by this approach or by most of Trump’s moves — radical and divisive though some of them are. Even so, his full-on unleashing of the animal spirits of American capitalism has unsettled some traditional allies. Now, the world must decide how to respond to the whirlwind that a second Trump administration appears to be accompanying, if not summarizing.
America also has a big question to answer. Much of Trump's early days as president have been focused on ensuring his reelection, particularly reducing immigration and cutting back on what his supporters call the "deep state," or federal government. He is right to focus on the concerns of the voters who sent him back to the Oval Office. But if, as his opponents fear, he indulges his baser instincts and begins to undermine the pillars of democracy, how should Americans respond?
Both questions have a simple answer: values other than profit. For example, Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement cannot be an excuse for the EU to slow down its decarbonization agenda; however, it should reduce regulatory burdens and simplify rules.
On the domestic front, now is also the time to pick the right battles. U.S. courts should be prepared to deal with Trump’s more controversial moves, such as his attempt to end birthright citizenship enshrined in the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution.
Trump's first attempt underscores a widespread sense that an era is over. It was met with a weary response from U.S. allies, who saw it as exacerbating threats to the multilateral order. But it's worth noting that many people elsewhere in the world view Trump more favorably and like the idea of a more inward-looking America. Some of his moves may also produce desirable results. Trump’s mere threat of tougher sanctions on Russia will not bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table to reach a fair peace deal on Ukraine. But the president's blunt and unexpected warning this week is a step in the right direction and a reminder of how he views unpredictability as an asset.
More broadly, allies must accept that some of Trump's prescriptions may prove to be a much-needed call to action. Just as he urged NATO members to increase defense spending during his last term, his support for reducing regulations and bureaucracy and lowering taxes this time will force EU leaders to confront the continent's competitiveness issues with greater urgency.
It's still early days. The fact that Trump hasn't launched a new trade war with China or Europe doesn't mean it won't happen next week. No matter what happens, this is a time to calm your head. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told the Financial Times this week that he and other East Asian leaders believed the global trading system would survive the initial turmoil intact. We have to hope he's right.
Trump is now at the peak of his power, controlling both houses of Congress, with conservatives in the majority on the Supreme Court and on track for re-election. Whether at home or abroad, it is important not to be distracted by the more performative elements of his agenda, to accept that he may be right at times, but most importantly to stand up for what is important. If recklessness and arrogance prevail, political capital in a second term could quickly evaporate.