TEL AVIV, Israel — The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which has dramatically transformed much of the Middle East and is still causing aftershocks, may now be nearing its end.

When Hamas launched a surprise attack on southern Israel on the morning of October 7, 2023, it was operating under Middle Eastern rules that had existed for years. On one side is US-backed Israel, and on the other is Iran and its partners - Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.

Each side believes it can inflict significant damage on the other, an assertion that makes everyone wary of a major confrontation.

The fighting of the past 15 months has rewritten those rules. Israel has launched a powerful military strike against its adversaries, while Iran and its allies have suffered severe setbacks with no clear path to recovery.

The leaderships of Hamas and Hezbollah have been eliminated, leaving them in a weak position to sign separate ceasefires with Israel. Syria's longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad fled into exile in Russia last month. Meanwhile, Iran is trying to make sense of a rapidly changing Middle East where its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 85 and ailing.

The ceasefire announced by Israel and Hamas on Wednesday could mark an end to fierce fighting in the region and could prevent another large-scale war, at least in the short term. But the fighting over the past 15 months has created a series of disasters or made existing problems more difficult to solve.

Israel's reputation damaged

Israel can claim significant military success, but the destruction it has caused in Gaza has done enormous damage to Israel's reputation. Gaza health officials say more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in the area, more than half of them women and children.

The massacre sparked widespread Arab anger that spread far beyond the region to many Western countries. Israel relies heavily on U.S. military and political support, which will continue under President-elect Donald Trump. But Israel also needs political support and trade ties from European countries to limit its international isolation.

Even before the war in Gaza, Israel had been widely criticized for its brutal occupation of the Palestinians. Israel now faces greater scrutiny over how it treats Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where Jewish settlements are expanding rapidly.

Will Israel work with the international community to help rebuild Gaza and provide Palestinians with a political path to statehood?

Or will Israel continue to squeeze the Palestinians with the punitive measures that have characterized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s years in power?

Netanyahu has promised security throughout his term. Hamas attacks undermine that commitment. Now, with the war in Gaza apparently over, Israel may find itself in a stronger security position in the coming years. However, Israel's Palestinian policy is likely to come under intense political pressure.

Iran's strategy is in tatters

For decades, Iran’s strategy has been to support a network of Arab partners with the goal of undermining Israel. This practice is now fragmented.

Iran's proxies are overwhelmed in the fight against Israel. Iran also suffered setbacks in its missile exchanges with Israel last year. Military analysts say Iran's air defense capabilities are severely weakened, leaving the country vulnerable to future Israeli air strikes.

Additionally, Iran's fragile economy is shackled by Western sanctions, preventing the country from continuing to provide military aid to its partners.

Iran will also have to deal with Trump, who took office on Monday. He exerted "maximum pressure" on Iran during his first administration and is expected to pursue hard-line policies again.

Iran could be forced to make compromises — such as scaling back or abandoning support for proxies — in exchange for sanctions being lifted.

Of course, Iran could go in the opposite direction and push for the development of nuclear weapons as the best form of defence—a move that could lead to a showdown with the United States and Israel.

The broken land is in urgent need

Before October 7, 2023, many places in the Middle East were already in misery, and the recent fighting has made it worse.

Much of Gaza is in ruins. Nearly all 2.2 million residents have been displaced multiple times and are no longer homeless. Israel says it will no longer allow UNRWA, the United Nations Palestinian refugee organization, UNRWA, to operate in the territory.

The crisis is most severe in Gaza, but Lebanon and Syria also face alarming problems.

Lebanon has suffered from chronic political and economic troubles for years, and an Israeli military offensive last fall caused significant damage to the country's south. Lebanon's parliament recently elected a president, the first time the position has been filled in more than two years, offering a glimmer of hope.

Syria's nearly 14-year civil war ended with Assad's exile in Russia last month, but piecing the shattered country back together will be an arduous, long-term undertaking. During the war, more than half of the Syrian people were driven from their homes.

If the ceasefire in Gaza is implemented, it will mark the end of 15 months of ongoing unrest. The changes taking place will play out over the next few years.