onIn Istanbul on Thursday, the empty seats reserved for Vladimir Putin are completely symbolic of Russia's reluctance to end the Ukrainian war. Putin's negotiating rival Volodymyr Zelensky spent several days calling for him to show up and face him. "We are ready to talk," the Ukrainian president said. "End this war."

But Putin stayed away, showing his contempt for the peace process and handed Zelensky a tactical victory. For the Russians, this is the latest news among a series of diplomatic stumbling blocks. President Donald Trump and his envoys have tried for months to hold a ceasefire in Ukraine. Along the way, they provided Putin with many opportunities to bring the Americans to his corner. But the Russian leaders missed everyone.

On the last day of February, the most precious opportunity landed in Putin's circle when Trump and Zelensky participated in a fierce shouting match in the Oval Office. Since then, relations between the United States and Ukraine are facing a crisis, and Trump briefly cut off US aid to Ukraine. He has become more friendly than ever to Moscow's proposal. In mid-March, Trump held what he called "very good and productive" calls with Putin. His envoy of the peace talks, Steve Witkoff, visited Putin in Moscow and, after his return, publicly responded to many of the Kremlin's arguments about the war.

Zelensky watches from Kyiv, worried that Putin won the Americans. "I think Russia has managed to influence some members of the White House team through information," Zelensky told Time in an interview in Kiev on March 21. "Their signal to the Americans is that Ukrainians don't want to end the war and that some measures should be taken to force them."

But Trump seems to be buying it. In early April, his administration welcomed Putin's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, who became the first senior Russian official to visit the White House for more than three years. Former investment banker Dmitriev has provided the United States with a series of lucrative mining agreements and gained access to Russian natural resources in exchange for measures to lift U.S. sanctions. Trump seems to be impressed. "Europe has not successfully dealt with President Putin," he told reporters after his visit. "I think I will succeed."

In all appearances, Putin surpassed Zelensky in the competition for Trump's good grace. But on April 13, a few days after Dmitryev's visit to Washington, the trend suddenly changed. That morning, two Russian ballistic missiles attacked the Ukrainian city of Sumi, killing at least 34 people and injuring 117 people, including 15 children. Television broadcasts around the world show the victims' bloody bodies scattered on a central square in a city near the city. Less than two weeks later, as Trump and his team continued to push for peace deals and promising outcomes, the Russians launched one of the deadliest bombings of the Ukrainian capital since the war began. On the evening of April 24, about 70 missiles and 150 drones attacked Kiev, killing at least a dozen people and injuring others.

That wave of attacks made Trump claim that Russia is serious about the peace process, and his tone of the Kremlin changed drastically, making Trump seem childish and even stupid. Trump wrote on social media on the day of the Kiev explosion: "Not necessary, nor a bad time, direct attraction to Putin: "Vladimir, stop!" ”

The attack on Keefe and Sumi seemed completely unnecessary for the targets of Putin's war. Civilians in northern Ukraine hit civilians far behind the front lines, not helping Russian troops advance in the east and south of the country, where they fought desperately for years to capture more Ukrainian territory. Stop attacks on civilians and focus on military targets on the frontline, at least until he can consolidate reconciliation with the Trump administration.

But the Russians can't help themselves. Even if Trump and Zelensky called for a 30-day ceasefire to clear the path to peace talks, Putin blew away any sincere appearance by continuing the massacre of civilians. Diplomacy, this decision cost him a huge price. It created opportunities for Zelensky to win Trump around him, and Ukrainian leaders seized Trump on April 26.

During an impromptu meeting that day at the funeral of Vatican Pope Francis, Zelensky told Trump that Putin could only understand the language of force. He said the only way to get him to negotiate was through diplomatic pressure, which included a series of sanctions against Russia. A Ukrainian official introduced Zelensky's bombing attack on Kiev at a Vatican meeting to raise a debate. The news seems to have hit the house.

When he flew to Washington on Air Force One, Trump issued one of the toughest condemnations of Putin. "It makes me think maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just poaching me and has to treat different ways through banking or secondary sanctions?" Trump wrote on social media.

Trump's transformation became even more obvious in the following week, when he withdrew from the proposal for diplomatic quarantine in Moscow. In mid-February, Trump said he would "love" invite Russians to return to the G7, the world's richest democracy. When Trump was asked about this again, that desire disappeared: “I don’t think it’s a good time,” he told reporters. “We missed that gate.”

Putin's next diplomatic opportunity comes the week after Trump and many European leaders urged him to come to Istanbul for a round of peace talks. They were originally the first direct negotiation between Putin and Zelensky since the start of the full invasion. "I hope this time, Putin won't look for excuses for why he can't," Zelensky said. His chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, twisted the knife in a social media post: "Where is Putin? Is he afraid? We'll see."

The Kremlin has been stalled until the last minute and said in a statement that Putin will make a decision when he “deems it necessary.” Finally, he chose to send a delegation of Russian aides and diplomats.

The consequences of Russia's snub may be distinct. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the price of oil, Russia's most profitable exports and the lifeline of its war economy, has fallen to its lowest point, and Putin needs the West to ease sanctions on Russia. European leaders plan to strengthen sanctions after Putin refuses to participate in the peace process.