Although the sound branch of the School of Film Arts and Sciences combines the best sound editing and blends the best sounds from the Oscars into the best sound category of 2020 (Metal sound It is the first comprehensive winner of 2021), and there are still two organizations that respect voice work separately, both of which hold awards ceremony this weekend.

The Movie Sound Editing and the Movie Audio Association represent the Sound Editor and the Sound Mixer, respectively. Over the years, their nominations and winners’ awards have been studied with possible clues to understand expectations for the Academy’s Voice Branch.

The Academy's voice branch currently consists of 551 people, accounting for about 5% of the total membership of the organization - only Oscar nominations related to sound are always identified. Subsequently, other members of the academy have been identifying Oscar winners related to sound.

In the last three award seasons, has one of the sound-related guilds (MPSE or CAS) proved to be more predictable than the other's Oscars since the Oscars of Two Voices? The answer is complicated.

First of all, please note that the CAS awards have one The highest award for recognizing the rational mix of live-action features (and the same award for recognizing the rational mix of animation and documentary features), while the Golden Reel Awards of MPSE already have three Rewards considered equally important. These recognize features dialogue/ADR editing, feature effects/Foley work and music editing.

Last year, CAS awarded its highest award Oppenheimerand the Oscar was awarded Areas of interest. In the three years before that, CAS and the Academy gave away their voice prizes to the same movie: Top Gun: Mavericks,,,,, dune and Metal sound. That was an excellent track record. But before that, they are usually but not always on the same page. In 2020 Ford V Ferrari It is a CAS champion; it also won the Oscar for Best Sound Editor, but the sound mix goes 1917. All three have gone Bohemian Rhapsody In 2019 and Dunkirk 2018. In 2017, La La Land Win CAS, but the Academy awarded Oscar's voice editor arrive Mix Oscars with sound Hacksaw Ridge.

Last year, the Academy awarded the Best Voice Oppenheimerwon the Conversation/ADR and Foley Awards from MPSE; master Win MPSE Music Editor Award. In 2023 and 2022, Oscar winners are ultimately the best voice - Top Gun: Mavericks and dune - First won the Best Foley at MPSE. In 2021, Metal sound Winning the Oscars but not getting any love on the Golden Scrolls, and in 2020, the Oscar winner 1917 Best conversations for scoring MPSE/ADR Ford V Ferrari Win the best Foley and Jojo Rabbit Win best music. The biggest winners of Oscars and CAS the year before, Bohemian Rhapsodyscore only best conversation/ADR in MPSE.

Now is the best Oscar nominee of the year. A completely unknown Nominated by CAS and MPSE (conversation/ADR and music editing). Dunes: Part 2 CAS NOM and NOM received all three MPSE honors. Emilia Perez Passed by CAS, but received the MPSE music editor nod. and evil Nominated by CAS and MPSE (conversation/ADR and music editing).

The fifth largest sound Oscar nominee this year, animation features Wild robotpropose an interesting case. It is nominated by CAS and MPSE in the animation function category for sound editing in functional animation. The last Oscar-nominated animation feature for sound-related Oscars is the first year of unifying the sound category. That movie, soulnominated and won, and won the same award Wild robot Nominations in CAS and MPSE (Metal sound Win a year soul nominated at the Oscars).

Whether any of the above overlaps cause and effect or coincide? The latter seems more likely, as 95% of voters who have re-established the best Oscar champion are no Members of the Voice Community.

Perhaps for this reason, the Academy tends to give its voice-related Oscar nominees to Best Picture, just like every year of the past three years, because these movies are the ones they most likely to see and like Nominated for a movie. and/or making sounds or lacking movies are front and center (like Metal soundit's about losing the hearing Areas of interestThis is because it uses the sound subtly to tell the story of Auschwitz concentration camp.

What does this mean for this year's Oscar nominee? Well, four of the five were nominated for the best picture (A completely unknown,,,,, Dunes: Part 2,,,,, Emilia Pérez and evil). Five are musicals or four of them (four of them) (A completely unknown,,,,, Emilia Pérez,,,,, evil and Wild robot), while the other is a sound-centric sequel to the best sound winners in the past (Dunes: Part 2).

In other words, your guess is as good as ours.