How much will it cost to rebuild Gaza?

phosphorusPalestinians in Gaza are eager to leave their miserable tent camps and return home if a long-awaited ceasefire ends Israel's war with Hamas, but many will find that all is lost and there will be no way to rebuild.

Israeli bombings and ground operations have turned entire neighborhoods in several cities into rubble-strewn wastelands, with charred building shells and piles of rubble stretching in every direction. Major roads have been bulldozed. Critical hydropower infrastructure is in ruins. Most hospitals are no longer functioning.

It’s unclear when — or even if — much of it will be rebuilt.

The agreement for a phased ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas-led militants did not say who would rule Gaza after the war or whether Israel and Egypt would lift a blockade that restricted the movement of people and goods during the Hamas occupation. Powered in 2007 .

The United Nations says if the blockade continues, reconstruction could take more than 350 years.

Two thirds of the buildings were destroyed

The full extent of the damage will only be known when the fighting is over and inspectors have full access to the area. Israeli forces sealed off the most devastated areas of northern Gaza and largely cleared the area of ​​its population in an operation that began in early October.

The United Nations last month used satellite data to estimate that 69% of buildings in Gaza had been damaged or destroyed, including more than 245,000 homes. The World Bank estimates that the war caused $18.5 billion in damage in the first four months alone, nearly the economic output of the West Bank and Gaza Strip combined in 2022.

Israel blames the destruction on Hamas, which launched an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 that killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapped another 250 people, triggering the war. Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, more than half of whom were women and children, according to Gaza's health ministry, which did not say how many of the dead were militants.

Israel says it has killed more than 17,000 militants but has provided no evidence. Photos and videos released by the military show Hamas building tunnels and rocket launchers in residential areas and frequently operating in and around homes, schools and mosques.

Read more: What to know about the ceasefire agreement in the war between Israel and Hamas

Mountains of rubble need to be moved

Before it can be rebuilt, the rubble must be cleared - a daunting task in itself.

The United Nations estimates that the war has left more than 50 million tons of rubble in Gaza, roughly 12 times the size of the Great Pyramid of Giza. With more than 100 trucks working full-time, it will take more than 15 years to clear the rubble, and there is little open space in the narrow coastal area home to some 2.3 million Palestinians.

Removing the debris will also be complicated by the large amounts of unexploded ordnance and other hazardous material it contains, as well as human remains. Gaza's health ministry said thousands of people killed in the airstrikes were still buried under the rubble.

No plans for the day after tomorrow

Clearing the rubble and eventually rebuilding homes will cost billions of dollars and require the ability to bring construction materials and heavy equipment into the area — neither of which is guaranteed.

The ceasefire agreement calls for the final phase of a three- to five-year reconstruction project to begin after all 100 remaining hostages are released and Israeli forces withdraw from the territory.

But getting to that point will require agreement on the second and most difficult phase of the deal, which still needs to be negotiated.

Even so, the ability to rebuild will depend on lockdowns, which critics have long decried as a form of collective punishment. Israel says Hamas needs to be prevented from rebuilding its military capabilities, noting that cement and metal pipes can also be used for tunnels and rockets.

Israel may be more inclined to lift the blockade if Hamas is no longer in power, but there are currently no plans to establish an alternative government.

The United States and much of the international community want to reinvigorate the Palestinian Authority, with Arab support, to govern the West Bank and Gaza Strip before the eventual establishment of a state. But that is unlikely for the Israeli government, which opposes Palestinian statehood and rules out any role for Western-backed authorities in Gaza.

International donors are unlikely to invest in an ungoverned region that has endured five wars in less than two decades, meaning sprawling tent camps along the coast could become a permanent feature of life in Gaza.