Last season, the New York Knicks posted a 61.0% winning percentage in the regular season, earned the second spot in the Eastern Conference, and played seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals before suffering an injury loss against the Indiana Pacers. and exhaustion from consumption.

This offseason, the Knicks reorganized the starting lineup through two blockbuster transactions, introducing Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, as well as current players Jalen Brunson and OG Anu. Nobby and Josh Hart.

So, halfway through the season, what do we know about this team? What is their expected value for the remainder of the regular season and playoffs? What are their fantasy basketball prospects like? Let's explore it.

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Through 41 games, the Knicks are 26-15, a winning percentage of 63.4, just shy of last season's 50-win pace. But their approach is completely different. The offense is strong and dynamic (offensive efficiency 120.5, second in the NBA), but the defense is mediocre (defensive efficiency 113.8, 17th in the NBA). They were strong on both ends of the court last season, but not dominant, with ORTG ranking seventh (118.2 points per 100 possessions) and DRTG ranking 10th (113.4 points allowed per 100 possessions).

Even a quick look at the numbers shows that the Knicks' defense is actually very similar to last season's overall performance, but the league as a whole is better defensively this season, so they're better in that regard relative to other teams. Bad league.

This also points to the flip side, even with better defense league-wide, the Knicks' offense is still 2.3 PP100 better this season, indicating that their offense is significantly better this season relative to the league than last season.

what's working

First, a clear identity as an offensively dominant team increases the team's ceiling. Their current offensive roster features two All-NBA caliber players in Brunson (who finished sixth in NBA MVP voting last season) and Towns (who ranked ninth in MVP odds this season, per ESPNBET), and their games complement each other. Works well together.

Towns is one of the best shooting big men in the NBA. He can score with very high efficiency inside the three-point line (59.3% 2P%) and from outside (44.9% 3P%). Brunson, on the other hand, excels at creating offense off the dribble all over the court for himself (53.0 2P%, 38.5 3P%) and teammates (7.6 APG vs 2.4 TO).

Both are dominant in one-on-one defense and are strong in the pick-and-roll/pop game, which creates more obvious mismatches and creates easy looks for the entire team on the court. The last point is reflected in the team's three-point shooting percentage. All five Knicks starters have three-point shooting percentages between 1.3 and 2.3, and effective field goal percentages (including three-pointers and two-pointers) between 54.5% and 61.7%.

A closer look will reveal that Brunson is the only starter to create his own three-pointers. His three-point assist rate is only 46.7%, while the other four starters have an assist rate of 86.5% (Josh Ha Special) and 100% (OG Anunoby). Their three-point shooting percentage. With Brunson being the alpha creator in the backcourt and Towns being the elite finishing big man who creates space for teammates and puts gravity on opposing defenses, the Knicks' offense is difficult to plan for.

What doesn't work

There's no other way to put it - the Knicks' defense was disappointing. On paper, Anunoby (eighth in All-Defensive voting in 2022-23), Bridges (second in 2021-22) and Hart (23rd in 2023-24) That trio should make them one of the best perimeter defensive trios in the NBA.

But in practice, Anunoby almost exclusively plays a diminutive power forward, playing more of an interior defensive role, which is not his strength. While Hart remains one of the best rebounding wings in the NBA, both he and Bridges have struggled more as screen defenders than in the past.

Part of the reason for their struggles may be that neither Brunson nor Towns are strong defenders of their positions. As a result, opposing point guards can more easily penetrate and penetrate their team's defense, while the lack of rim protection means wing defenders are more of an island with no one to stop opponents from getting into the paint. The latter could be helped by the potential return of Mitchell Robinson, who has a career scoring average of 1.9 points per game. Robinson missed the entire season with an ankle injury but is expected to be able to fully practice sometime in January, so his return is imminent. Robinson would bring true interior defense to the Knicks and could also play alongside KAT, giving the Knicks more size on the floor against bigger opponents. Let's not forget that KAT spent his final two seasons in Minnesota playing alongside Rudy Gobert at power forward.

fantasy basketball prospects

All five Knicks starters currently rank in the top 85 in the league in fantasy points per game (points league) and in the top 45 in ESPN player ratings (classified league). Towns leads them in both formats, making him the king of fantasy basketball in New York, although his ADP (14.0) trails teammate Brunson slightly. Towns leads the league in rebounding, which combined with his strong scoring ability, 3-point shooting and efficient field goal percentage make him one of the most valuable fantasy basketball producers in the NBA.

While Brunson ranks second on the Knicks in fantasy points per game, third place goes to the surprising Hart (37th in FP/G) with his strong rebounding, field goal percentage, assists, and steals The combination ranks him ninth in player rating. Considering Hart's profile is still low relative to his production, he might be the best value fantasy basketball player on the Knicks and one of the top targets you should consider in trade negotiations.

Futures angles and bets

ESPN BET Odds

ESPN BET puts the Knicks' regular season winning percentage at 53.5 games. Already out of playoff contention, they are +850 to win the Atlantic Division, +550 to win the East Division, and +1,200 to win the title.

Here are two compelling bets:

Over 53.5 wins: Assuming they continue to stay relatively healthy, the Knicks have a good chance of finishing with 53.5 wins (draws). They got off to a slow start this season, winning just two of their first seven games, but have since gone 24-10, a 70.6 winning percentage, and are projected to win an additional 29 over their last 41 games...or 55 total. victory.

But keep in mind that health is a legitimate question mark given head coach Tom Thibodeaux's penchant for playing starters big minutes. All five Knicks starters have played in at least 38 of the Knicks' 41 games, and all five players are averaging at least 34.7 MPG. There's a chance the roster will be weakened like it was in last season's playoffs.

Knicks win Eastern Conference (+550): That would likely require their defense to improve significantly with Robinson's return, but if that happens, they'll have a legitimate shot at a seven-game series against the East-leading Cavaliers and defending champion Celtics. The Knicks defeated the Cavaliers in the playoffs two seasons ago, and their offense can even go head-to-head with the mighty Celtics.