How Donald Trump changed the Gaza ceasefire

Steve Witkoff, a real estate investor, was just a bystander at the U.S. Capitol in July when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress. The author described the experience as "epic" and "spiritual."

Five months later, the Bronx-born businessman - with no diplomatic experience - was in Israel as Donald Trump's chosen envoy to the Middle East, cajoling and pressuring Netanyahu into making concessions. to end the devastating 15-month war in Gaza.

After on-again, off-again grinding negotiations, numerous false dawns and seemingly never-ending questions, the chances of a breakthrough appear slim before the end of Joe Biden's U.S. presidency.

So when Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani finally announced a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Doha — thereby freeing hostages in the besieged strip — Vitkov and The fact that other mediators were present together was telling.

"What has changed in the last eight months? It's Trump and Witkoff. Trump's approach does show a difference," said one person familiar with the negotiations.

It's unclear whether Steve Witkoff (right) issued any explicit threats from Trump or made promises to Benjamin Netanyahu in the event of a deal © Government of Israel/Media Advisor to the Prime Minister

The deal, structured as a multi-phase proposal leading to peace and reconstruction, was first conceived by mediators and publicly endorsed by Biden more than six months ago. But it was Trump's endorsement that ultimately sealed the deal.

Trump made Middle East peace a big issue during the campaign and attacked Biden for failing to secure a ceasefire; he was quick to back up his remarks after the vote. Witkov was unexpectedly appointed as special envoy to the Middle East and was sent to Qatar on November 22 - less than three weeks after he won the election.

In Doha, Vitkov met with Sheikh Mohammed to get an update on the deadlock in negotiations and to learn why Qatar had suspended its role. Qatar has become frustrated with the warring parties over a lack of progress in negotiations and has been criticized for hosting Hamas. Act as mediator.

He then flew to Tel Aviv to meet with Netanyahu. It’s unclear whether Witkov issued any specific Trump threats or made commitments to Israel in the event of a deal — both hallmarks of Trump’s diplomacy, which, again, is not allowed Predictive, but also transactional.

But the impact was clear: One day later, on November 24, David Barnea, Israel's top negotiator and head of the Mossad spy agency, traveled to Vienna to meet with Sheikh Mohammed.

“That’s when it started, and the Israeli side had completely different aspirations,” said a person familiar with the talks.

Witkopf, a close confidant of Trump who is also well known to Qatari officials through his real estate business, has suddenly become the star of an unlikely negotiating team led by Brett McGurk, Biden's top Middle East adviser.

In directing envoys to coordinate, both Biden and Trump put aside their bitter personal and political rivalries — a small miracle in itself.

The challenges they face are clear. Netanyahu has spent much of last year circling Biden's mediators, coming close to a deal several times before coming up with new terms, such as new demands including that Israeli troops should remain in the Philadelphia Corridor, a corridor along extends to the Gaza Strip. Egyptian border.

Even some Israeli security officials have accused Netanyahu of blocking the process, but the Biden administration, at least publicly, has largely echoed Israel's sentiments, blaming Hamas for the failure of negotiations.

At this point, Israel has largely accomplished its battlefield objectives against Hamas: the militant group's military capabilities have been destroyed, and Israel has assassinated nearly all of its top leaders, including Yahya Shin, the mastermind of the October 7 attack. Yahya Sinwar.

The Biden team had long concluded that there would be no deal as long as Sinwar was alive. But even after Israel assassinated him in October, Gaza negotiations remained deadlocked. Netanyahu has publicly insisted that he will never agree to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza or withdraw Israeli troops from the besieged strip, and has given no sign that he will back down.

Trump's electoral victory shook up Gaza negotiations and created a new reality: Any deal Biden agrees to will be implemented by Trump.

In early December, Trump made it clear that he wanted to end the conflict by the time he takes office in January, posting on his Truth Social platform: "If the hostages are not released by January 20, 2025... Middle East There will be a heavy price to pay," Trump posted shortly after having dinner with Netanyahu's wife Sara and son Yair at his Mar-a-Lago club.

In mid-December, Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan and McGurk traveled to Israel to make a last-ditch effort to resume hostage ceasefire negotiations in Gaza.

Some suspect Netanyahu will wait for Trump to win rather than allow lame-duck Biden to be elected president. The Israeli prime minister also faces continued pressure from far-right allies who have threatened to leave his governing coalition if he agrees to a deal with Hamas or "surrenders" to the Palestinians - after the deal was announced A factor he's still grappling with.

But people familiar with the negotiations said Witkov was repeatedly unwilling to tolerate deadlocks. With Trump's support, he discussed the needed actions directly with Netanyahu and pledged strong U.S. support for Israel, people familiar with the matter said.

"He gave us a lot of authority to speak on his behalf, and he exhorted us to speak with emphasis. And with emphasis he meant: 'You better do this,'" Witkoff told reporters in Palm Beach last week.

The first hostages should be released on Sunday, the day before Trump's January 20 inauguration © Ammar Awad/Reuters

McGurk returned to the region in early January, shortly after Hamas made a key concession: Hamas agreed to release a list of about 34 hostages in the first phase of the deal, a senior U.S. government official said.

But momentum in the negotiations has begun to wane again. Vitkov flew back to Doha last weekend to meet with Sheikh Mohammed to discuss the obstacles and agreed that Vitkov would push Israel while Qatar pressures Hamas.

With McGurk's agreement, Witkov then returned to Israel to meet with Netanyahu — an unplanned trip that coincided with the Jewish Sabbath.

Vitkov next joined McGurk and Israel's chief negotiator, Baniya, in Doha, where they remained until the deal was finalized. The talks took place in Sheikh Mohammed's offices or residences and often continued late into the night.

Hamas negotiators are sometimes in the same building, just one floor below.

Many in the Arab world and beyond believe Biden has repeatedly failed to use his influence with Netanyahu to strike deals or curb Israel's ferocious offensive in Gaza because of his staunch support for the Jewish state.

In contrast, when Witkov engaged, the Israelis seemed more obedient. “The way he did it was as if he was trying to strike a business deal,” said a person familiar with the negotiations. "He applied the right pressure. There was a feeling that when he met the Israelis there was improvement."

Thousands of Gazans celebrated on a street in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip as news of the ceasefire spread © Bashar Taleb/AFP/Getty Images

At first, McGurk and Witkoff kept in touch, just updating each other. But in the final stages of the negotiations, they decided it made sense for Vitkov to join directly.

They know that any breakthrough depends on Netanyahu accepting key points that previously derailed the deal, such as where Israeli troops in Gaza will be redeployed.

This is where Witkoff, backed by Trump's political clout, comes into play. Netanyahu realizes that Trump implemented a series of pro-Israel policies during his first term, upending years of U.S. Middle East policy.

"The only difference is Trump. Netanyahu really wants to ally with Trump. . . . They (the Americans) have made it clear they want it to be quiet here," another person familiar with the matter said.

Trump's victory also prompted Qatar and Egypt to put new pressure on Hamas.

“The Trump effect is not just affecting Bibi, it’s also affecting Qatar and Egypt,” said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East peace negotiator now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "They lean towards Hamas because they both need to show Trump: 'Look what we did'."

The ceasefire will take effect on Sunday, when the first hostages are released, the day before Trump's January 20 inauguration.

Additional reporting by Neri Zilber in Tel Aviv

Aditi Bhandari Graphics