At the end of the US industrial production in 2024, it surpassed the expectations of economists with signs of hope and showed that after two years of decline, the manufacturing department was stabilizing.
In December last year, industrial output increased by 0.9 %, which is the largest increase in monthly since February last year. This is due to the rise in factory activities and the long -term strike of Boeing. This ascension not only exceeds the forecast, but also marks the major rebound of the manufacturing industry. In the case of high borrowing costs and fluctuations in demand, it has previously struggled in the struggle.
The December report of the Federal Reserve emphasized that since August 2024, manufacturing output has risen by 0.6 %. This growth is mainly due to the surge in the production of aerospace equipment after the Boeing strike. However, the production of consumer goods and building supplies has also improved significantly, and it has played a role in a wider range of industrial expansion.
It does not include automatic output inclination, and the production of factory has increased by 0.7 %, while the growth of mining and public utilities is 1.8 % and 2.1 %, respectively. The increase in natural gas extraction has significantly increased the public business department, which shows that domestic and foreign demand is growing.
The retail data from December has similarly affirmed the positive trajectory of the US economy. Commodity expenditures of GDP (GDP) have increased their maximum growth within three months, which shows that consumer demand continues. In addition, housing began to accelerate to the fastest speed since 2024. These outstanding performances led Goldman Sachs economist to increase the estimation of the fourth quarter of GDP tracking by 0.1 percentage points to 2.6 %.
Despite these encouraging signs, the manufacturing industry is still in the early stages of recovery. Compared with December 2023, the manufacturing industry accounts for three -quarters of the total industrial output and remain flat.
The growth of December shows that the beginning of the potential transformation of the industry depends on continuous improvement and favorable trade policies. The release of the Federal Reserve also pointed out that the capacity utilization rate of the factory reached a three -month high of 76.6 %, although it still lags behind a long -term average 2.1 percentage point.
Two key emotional surveys can further understand the manufacturing industry: the manufacturing index of Empires in New York and the manufacturing business prospects of Philadelphia.
The Empire Manufacturing Survey conducted in early January betrayed the shrinkage of general business conditions. Beginning in December, the title index fell 14.7 points, that is, Minus-12.6, and at the same time decreased new orders and goods, most of them blame.
Nevertheless, the company has not stopped hoping to improve in the next six months. The forward -looking index fell 9.8 points to 34.2, which reflects the manufacturer's vigilance but still great optimism. The prospects of new orders and delivery are equally bright. The respective indexes read 34.2 (after 5.9 points of bumps) and 28.8 (after the trip of 4.2).
Instead, the manufacturer's reading of the current environment is even greater in Philadelphia. From the amendment of the negative 10.9.9 revised in December to the renovation of 44.3 in January, the index of general business activities has soared. This is the highest reading since April 2021. It is the monthly increase since June 2020. Essence November 2021 and October 2020.
Looking forward to the future, the index of business activities has increased by 12.5 points to 46.3, which is an obvious expectation for the next half -year growth. The survey of the prediction of new orders and goods not only increased, but also reached many years of high points, emphasizing the confident position of manufacturers for continuous demand. The prospect of labor is also very favorable, because the employment index has risen to 40.4 since December 2021.
Although the current situation is still a bit touched, forward -looking investigations point to the gradual stability and potential growth of industrial activities.
The increase in manufacturing output is directly transformed into a high demand for freight services, especially in departments that have experienced rapid growth in aerospace and energy. With the increase of factories, the demand for transportation materials and finished products has increased, and the number of trucks increases.
In addition, the increase in building supply and production is the main indicator of the increase in construction projects, which further refuels the needs of trucks (especially for flat beds). As these departments continue to restore and expand, the amount of trucks is expected to follow, providing positive prospects for the truck transportation industry.
However, the challenge still exists. Data of the Fed's capacity use shows that there are still sparse in the system, and the overall utilization rate is lower than historical specifications. This deficiency indicates that expanding the restrictions on operations may affect the ability to maintain industrial production growth and expand the volume of trucks. In addition, continuous trade tensions and potential tariffs have risked to manufacturers with international supply chains.
President Donald Trump's expected trade policy is another informal. His government's position on tariffs can strengthen domestic manufacturing by making our products more competitive, or may face retaliatory measures abroad. This policy decision -making and consequences will play a vital role in shaping the future dynamics of industrial needs and transportation and logistics.
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