Warsaw, Poland - Warsaw's streets were filled with red and white flags last Sunday as hopes of the two presidents and their supporters marched in the capital once before Poland voted for the second round of the country's next president on Sunday, June 1.
Rafał Trzaskowski from Civic Coalition's center-right citizen platform and Karol Nawrocki, an independent candidate supported by the Right-wing Law and Justice (PIS) party, were the two remaining contenders in the election. In the first round of polls on May 18, Trzaskowski won 31.1% of the vote, while Nawrocki ranked second with 29.5%.
So far, the polling group said that in the final round, the vote was fairly average between the two. A poll conducted by Ibris on Polish news outlet Onet found that 47.7% of respondents intend to vote for Trzaskowski, while 46% said they would vote for Nawrocki. The rest is uncertain.
One of the two will replace outgoing nationalist Conservative President Andrzej Duda, who also has PIS backing and has been accused of behavioral judicial reform for passing a veto on the government.
It was a fierce game. Trzaskowski and Nawrocki clashed with EU, national security and social values. Meanwhile, both candidates have adopted a similarly hard-working approach to immigration and used anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, based on ongoing resentment, who see themselves as competing with 1.55 million Ukrainian immigrants and war refugees for tense social services.
Although Trzaskowski proposed that working Ukrainians should be able to get child benefits in the country, Nawrocki went further, saying he would also oppose Ukraine's entry into NATO and even the EU.
"Every ticket is required"
Trzaskowski, speaking on his "Patriot March", called about 140,000 supporters, targeting his opponents while calling for solidarity.
"It's time for honesty to win. It's time for integrity to win. It's time for justice to win. It's time for truth to win. It's time for these elections to be the purpose of these elections," he declared to a cheering crowd.
"Full determination is needed. Every vote is needed. Let the future win. So, all Poland wins."
Trzaskowski has served as Mayor of Warsaw since 2018. His comments on "honest" are seen as references to recent news reports about Nawrocki's alleged purchase of an apartment in Gdansk, who belongs to an older man, in exchange for a commitment to provide care to him. The promise was not fulfilled, according to the man's family, and he was placed in a state nursing home.
In response, Nawrocki said he would donate the apartment to the charity, noting that the family was expelled from the state accommodation in Warsaw under the mayor of Trzaskowski.
Trzaskowski is seen as a more liberal candidate than his opponent, unlike Nawrocki, which supports calls for LGBTQ rights and the liberalization of past strict abortion laws on the country. However, during the current campaign, he remained silent on these issues. If elected, he would be more likely to help the ruling coalition pass various bills, mainly reforming the rule of law and the judicial system, which has so far been blocked by Duda.
"Rafał Trzaskowski will be a pro-European politician," said Bartosz Rydlinski, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski. "Brussels, Paris and Berlin will be the capitals he will visit. He will try to maintain close ties with the United States but focus on strengthening the European components of the European Union and NATO."
The United States recognizes Navoloki
Nawrocki's weekend March for Poland gathered nearly 50,000 supporters through Central Warsaw and highlighted his nationalist conservative, pro-declared and free-market views. He believes Poland should prioritize its relationship with the United States over the EU.
But his real victory came this week, when he was officially recognized by President Donald Trump’s Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem.
Nawrocki formulated his plan for the future of Poland at a conservative political action meeting Tuesday, an annual event held by the Conservative Coalition (USA) for American conservative activists and officials. The event is usually held in the United States but will be held in Hungary in 2022. This year, the event was held in the Polish town of Jasionka, southeastern Poland, near an air and shipping hub that provides weapons and assistance to Ukraine.
“For us, relationships with the United States are based on a profound foundation of values. These values are freedom, democracy and sovereignty,” he told listeners, including Noem of the Department of Homeland Security, JD Vance, billionaire Tesla Tesla owners Elon Musk and Steve Bannon, former former White House political strategist Steve Bannon and former Trarge of Traver’s first term.
“My opponent, Rafał Trzaskowski, is playing dishonestly,” said Navoroki, who claimed that Trzaskowski will blindly follow EU orders, including relaxing immigration rules. “Not only did he lie in public debates and get caught up in these lies, he also didn’t want to say what he really thought about Poland after 1 June 2025. The idea is obvious. Speeding up immigration agreements, speeding up climate treaties and pursuing policies that are important to Brussels, for our safety.”
After a long bad news, this activity is a much-needed boost for Nawrocki.
First, on May 22, Slawomir Mentzen, the far-right head of the free market party Konfederacja, ranked third in the first round of the presidential election, claimed in an interview with Nawrocki's YouTube channel that the PIS candidates participated in Nawrocki's fight in 2014 in a 2014 football magazine team-Never deny Nawrocki.
Then, during the next day's TV debate, he was seen putting a small bag on the gum, thought to be full of tobacco, but this prompted him to speculate that he might be taking drugs. Nawrocki provided negative drug test results on Tuesday, in response.
Finally, Onenet cited anonymous sources to publish a news report claiming that he was a young Nawrocki who attended the Seaside City of Secuthe Grand Hotel in Sopot and worked as a security guard in 2007. Nawrocki denied the claim and rejected an article on X, which he would Sue Outlet Sue Outlet.
But the negative news did not seem to affect his support.
"When it comes to rogue fighting, he was 28, I have no problem with it because I think men should know how to fight. When it comes to other issues - everyone can make mistakes, it doesn't have to mean bad intentions," said Marcin Mamon, a right-wing freelance journalist who claimed to have been Nawrocki exgrapsie exgrapsie eqgaggers equggeraips equggeraike of Exgergaime eqgaggers equggeraucki.
"For me, voting for conservative or right-wing candidates is a statement of values, such as the Catholic faith. Voting for other candidates means voting against the church and abortion, and I am totally opposed to it."
Parliamentary deadlock
A like-minded president is crucial to reverse the controversial judicial reform platform proposed by the former Pice administration, especially regarding the independence of the judiciary.
The EU imposed penalties on Poland as the changes were believed to contradict European law. Although the Citizen Platform came to power in 2023 and promised to reverse the controversial law, it was impossible to do so because President Duda has the veto power and will prevent any attempt to change the law.
"Navoroki's victory will mean a total war with the government," Reedski said. "He will be more conservative than Andrzej Duda, who may transfer many bills to the Constitutional Tribunal, which is still under the control of judges elected by the law and judicial governments."
According to experts, Navoroki's victory will also lead to a conflicting route between Poland and Europe.
"Karol Nawrocki will choose the bilateral relationship between Warsaw and Washington very strongly, thus breaking the EU solidarity," Rydlinski said. "He will be a mini-Trump in Central Europe, which means a major conflict with Germany, a cooling relationship with France and a conflict with Brussels."
Nawrocki's conservatism and obsession with Trump have attracted the attention of some Polish voters. Those who voted for the left or centrist candidate in the first round may now unite, rather than support Trzaskowski, but instead oppose what they think of Nawrocki as Nawrocki's Trump-like vision for Poland.
The left-wing and centrist candidates who lost in the first round announced their support for Trzaskowski, and their supporters are expected to follow suit.
“It’s not easy for me to put a cross next to Trzaskowski,” said Zofia Szeremet, a 20-year-old student in Warsaw, who voted in the first round for Adrian Zandberg, the left-wing leader of the Razem Party. "But I can't imagine not having a vote in such an important election. I disagree with Trzaskowski on many issues, but at the end of the day, he is a guarantee of a pro-European course in Poland.
“Navoroki is anti-EU, anti-Ukrainian, without experience and incompetence, and I don’t think the president has a connection to the rogue movement.”
Close call
When it comes to election favorites, the polls are inconclusive. However, the first round of votes shows that voters are tired of the continued priority of the two largest parties.
"If we add up the results of Navaroki and trzaskowski, it's slightly above 60%, which is the worst result since 2005. It's clear that the Poles are looking for an alternative, not only on the right but on the left, but on the left." By comparison, in the 2020 presidential election, the top two candidates won nearly 74% of the victory - Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski.
"Rafał Trzaskowski was even the lowest game predicted by the polls in the first round of the year, and it was the worst case scenario," Pallard said. "Nawrocki has achieved the worst results since 2005, below the ratings of the party standing behind him."
In addition, there may be more voters in the second round: the voter turnout in the first round is 67.3%. "The second round will be decided by the young people, but also by those who did not vote in the first round. It's an open question of who they will support," Palade added.