Hours after a ceasefire was announced on Sunday, Hamas militants were back on the streets of Gaza. Sure, there weren't many of them, and those who showed up were armed only with Kalashnikovs and some rudimentary body armor, but they were there.

In Khan Younis, several pickup trucks carrying gunmen drove past crowds of cheering young people. Dozens of uniformed fighters wearing Hamas headbands could be seen as three Israeli hostages were handed over in Gaza City. Elsewhere, there were reports that Hamas police officers wearing blue uniforms were being deployed in some areas after months in hiding to avoid Israeli attacks.

These are scenes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to avoid, but there is no doubt that it will happen. They are the image Hamas most wants to see in Gaza and the West Bank, in the region and around the world. They did not appear to be powerful or particularly capable, and social media exerted its usual amplifying effect. But, true to their meaning, the images show that Hamas has survived Israeli attacks over the past 15 months, which Hamas leaders consider a major victory in itself.

The reality is that Hamas has suffered huge losses. On the day of the attack, October 7, 2023, Hamas fired thousands of missiles deep into Israel. Now, it can only occasionally fire artillery shells at targets more than ten kilometers away. Supply lines were cut, ammunition depots emptied, and most new bombings used explosives recovered from Israeli-fired munitions. Much of the network of tunnels Hamas built under Gaza has been destroyed.

Its top leaders in Gaza, including Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas at the time and the mastermind of the October 7 attack, are dead. The same goes for many experienced mid-level activists.

Israel's claim that 17,000 Hamas fighters were killed is difficult to believe. An analysis in October by ACLED, an independent nonprofit that collects data on violent conflicts, said detailed IDF reports of killings of militants containing specific time frames, locations or operations resulted in about 8,500 deaths, although that number also Included are fighters from other armed groups and possibly other non-combatant Hamas members.

Such casualties, which could represent a quarter of Hamas's pre-war strength, are consistent with reports that some large Hamas units in central Gaza remain intact.

Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a speech last week that Hamas was recruiting nearly as many fighters as it was losing, a root cause of the long-running insurgency and another reason for the ceasefire.

Israeli officials say the number of new recruits is lower than Blinken recommended and that inexperienced teenagers cannot replace well-trained and strong-willed veterans.

This may be true, but even with severe degradation, Hamas will still be able to harm Israeli forces until a ceasefire is reached. Recent fighting in the northern Gaza town of Beit Hanoun has been so intense that Israeli commanders underestimated the size and morale of Hamas forces there, as well as the extent to which the tunnel network had been rebuilt. Hamas has caused heavy casualties as a result.

On the political front, Hamas has also been weakened. It has lost control of the territory it had ruled for 16 years, and all the prestige, power, facilities and revenue it brought with it. Many Hamas officials died; its network of clubs, charities and religious associations dispersed. Other players - such as large crime families - are now vying for influence. Many in Gaza blame Hamas and Israel for the bloody war that has killed 47,000 people and caused so much destruction.

But for now, with no agreed-upon government plan for Gaza, there is no one else. Aid organizations are still dealing with many of the managers they met in the summer of 2023. Hamas's media office remains operational and ambitiously describes a "government plan" to return Gaza to its pre-war status quo.

The reality is that neither side can achieve an outright victory, which is one of the reasons for this fragile moment of calm. Sadly, this is also how hopes for lasting peace may be dashed.