He has coveted Greenland since Donald Trump regained his presidency. Trump insists that the United States will control the island, currently Denmark's autonomous territory, and if his proposal is rejected, perhaps by force to seize Greenland.

In a recent Congressional hearing, Senators and expert witnesses focused on Greenland’s strategic value and its natural resources: key minerals, fossil fuels and hydropower. No one mentioned these harms, many of which are exacerbated by human-induced climate change, and those who desire to own and develop the island will inevitably encounter it.

This is unwise, because the climate in the Arctic is faster than anywhere on Earth. Such rapid warming further increases the economic and personal risks that people already live, work and extract resources in Greenland and other parts of the planet have already been substantial.

I am a geoscientist who studies the environmental history of Greenland and its ice sheets, including natural hazards and climate change. This knowledge is crucial to understanding the risks faced by military and mining efforts today and in the future.

Greenland: Extreme Land

Greenland is different from where most people live. The climate is very cold. For most of the year, sea ice relies on the coast, making it inaccessible.

Ice caps up to 2 miles thick cover more than 80% of the island. A population of about 56,000 people live on the island's steep rocky coastline.

While studying my book When I Disappeared, I discovered how Greenland’s harsh climate and vast wilderness hampered colonial efforts. During World War II, dozens of American military pilots were lost by thick fog, exhausted fuel, and crashed on the ice cap. An iceberg from Greenland sank the Titanic in 1912, and 46 years later, another Danish ship was specially designed to resist ice, killing all ships No. 95.

Now, due to climate change, natural hazards make Greenland’s resource extraction and military efforts uncertain, expensive and potentially fatal.

Rock

Greenland's coastal landscape is prone to rocky landslides. The danger occurs because the coast is where people live and the rocks are not hidden under the ice sheet. In some places, rocks contain critical minerals such as gold, as well as other rare metals used in the technology, including circuit boards and battery batteries.

The unstable slope reflects how the ice sheet erodes deep fjords when it is larger. Now that the ice has melted, nothing can surpass the walls near the vertical valley, they collapse.

In 2017, the Northwest Greenland Mountainside fell 3,000 feet into the deep waters of the fjord below. A moment later, the waves (tsunamis) generated by the rock fall were washed on the nearby villages of Nuugaatsiaq and Illorsuit. The water was loaded with icebergs and sea ice, and the water ripped off the house from the foundation as people ran with sled dogs. By the end, four people died and both villages were in ruins.

The island's steep fjord walls are covered with scars from past rocky landslides. There is evidence that at some point in the past 10,000 years, one of the slides dropped enough to fill 3.2 million Olympic swimming pools into the water below. In 2023, another rock landslide triggered a tsunami, wandering back and forth in the Greenland Fjord for nine days.

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Greenland has no paved network. The only viable way to move heavy equipment, minerals and fossil fuels is at sea. Piers, mines and buildings within dozens of feet of sea level will be vulnerable to tsunamis caused by rock landslides.

Melt will be fatal and expensive

Driven by fossil fuel combustion, human-induced global warming accelerates the melting of Greenland ice. This melting threatens the island’s infrastructure and the way of life of indigenous peoples who have adapted their transport and food systems into the presence of snow and ice. The recorded flood was fed due to the melting of the ice sheet caused by warmth, and recently swept the bridge that stood for half a century.

With the warmth of the climate, permafrost - frozen rocks and soil - the foundations of the island, melted. This disrupts the landscape, weakens steep slopes and destroys critical infrastructure.

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Thawing of permafrost has threatened U.S. military bases in Greenland. As the ice melts and ground settles under the runway, cracks and craters form - the hazard of the aircraft. The buildings tilt as their foundations fall into softened soil, including critical radar devices that have scanned missiles and bomber skies since the 1950s.

Greenland's icebergs may threaten oil rigs. As the warm climate accelerates the flow of Greenland glaciers, they add more icebergs to the ocean. The problem is closer to Greenland, but some icebergs drift towards Canada, endangering the oil rigs there. The ship guards, ready to tow the threatening iceberg.

The Greenland government bans drilling for fossil fuels in 2021 out of environmental concern. However, Trump and his allies still long to see the island’s exploration, despite the unusually high cost, is less than the outstanding performance of initial drilling and the ongoing risks of the iceberg.

As Greenland's ice melts and water flows into the ocean, sea levels change, but may not be intuitive. Away from the islands, sea levels rise about an inch every six years. But close to the ice sheet, this is the land where the land rises. Gradually getting rid of the weight of the ice, the rocks under Greenland, long been frustrated by the huge ice caps, rebounds. This rise is fast - over 6 feet per century. Soon, many ports in Greenland may become too shallow, as ship traffic is too shallow.

Greenland's past and future challenges

History clearly shows that many past military and colonial efforts failed in Greenland because they had little consideration for the island’s severe climate and dynamic ice sheets.

700 years ago, a changing climate drove Nordic settlers out of Greenland. The explorer who tried to cross the ice cap lost his life. American bases built within the ice cap, such as Camp Century, were quickly crushed as they deformed the snow.

In the past, the United States' focus in Greenland was on short-term returns and had little consideration for the future. The U.S. military bases of World War II were scattered on the island and needed to be cleaned up, and this is an example. During the Cold War, forced relocation of the Inuit community in Greenland was another. I think Trump's demand for the United States' control of resources on the island today is also short-sighted.

But when it comes to the habitability of the planet, I think Greenland’s greatest strategic and economic value to the world is not its location or natural resources, but its ice. The snow and ice reflect the sunlight, keeping the earth cool. Ice caps perch on land, keeping water away from the ocean. As it melts, Greenland's ice sheet will raise global sea levels, about 23 feet when all the ice disappears.

Climate-driven sea level rise has spread around the world, including major economic centers. As this continues, estimates indicate that the losses will total trillions of dollars. Unless Greenland freezes, coastal submersion will force the largest immigrants ever. Such changes are expected to undermine the global economic and strategic world order.

These examples show that Greenland Courts ignore natural hazards and the risks of climate change in disasters locally and globally.