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You don’t hear a lot of good news these days, and you hear even less good news about crime. In fact, this is a question of consistent structure of crime reports. When crime rose, it attracted a lot of attention - with the motto of "if blood, that would lead to old newsrooms".
Most news consumers may realize that starting in 2020, the United States has witnessed one of the most significant crime increases in its history. From 2019 to 2020, the murder rate is the highest annual tax rate recorded every year (drawing back to the beginning of a reliable record). Some advocates of criminal justice reform fear that the increase will continue the progress in an attempt to reduce it. They rightly point out that violent crime is still well below the worst peaks of the 1980s and 1990s, but completely refutes this increased peak. So steep, consistent and the rise of a nation is terrifying, every data point is terrifying to the real one.
There has been less happening since: From then on, crime will be reduced. Although final statistics are not available yet, some experts believe 2024 may set the steepest record fall With murder rate. And the starting point for 2025 is even better. The year isn't over half yet, and it can still be changed - considering that in 2020, when murders actually took off in the second half, the real-time crime index with the help of a national sample found that by March, murders fell 21.6%, violent crime fell 11%, and real estate crime rates fell 13.8%. In April, 20 murders occurred in Chicago. It's not only lower than April in the past few years - it's the best April since 1962, the mayor of Richard J. Daley.
One of the great challenges of reporting crime is the lack of good statistics and lateness. The best numbers come from the FBI, but aren't released until the fall of the following year. Nevertheless, we can understand the trends from the available data. The Criminal Justice Commission analyzed 2024 data from the 2024 crime category in 40 cities and found that all (shopping) had declined except 2023. Homicides in the data reported in the sample fell 16%, with murders and murders in the cities reported in particular, such as St. Louis, Baltimore and Detroit, who fell to the 2014 rank. Even though carjacking has suddenly become more common in recent years, it has dropped below the 2020 level, although car theft is also higher.
Another report from the Chiefs Association of Major Cities, which gathered police department leaders in the largest cities, found a similar trend: From 2023, homicides fell by 16%, with less reductions in rape, robbery and aggravated assaults.
Another huge challenge in reporting crime is how vague we are about what drives the changes in crime. Even now, scholars disagree with the reasons for the long-term decline in crime in the 1990s. A popular theory for the rise of 2020 is that it has a link to George Floyd's murder and the resulting protests, although this allows for several possible ways: Are police also subject to protests to deal with ordinary crime? Are they going to undone as a protest ("blue flu")—or back down because that is the message that the protest sent them and their leaders? Does the focus on brutal law enforcement empower the police in the eyes of citizens to encourage the rise of criminal behavior? Any or all are possible in various proportions.
A Brookings Agency report was published in December, deeming the pandemic itself the main culprit. The author believes that murder was on the rise when Freud was killed. “In 2020, the surge in murders was directly related to local unemployment and closing ceremonies in low-income areas,” they wrote. “In March and early April, more young people were forced to lose their jobs and teenage boys were kicked out of school in low-income neighborhoods, and homicides increased on average from May to December of that year. As many of these unemployment and school-related trends continued for years, they believed that this explains why high murder rates continued in 2021 and 2022. Reporter Alec MacGillis also made a powerful report, which is a similar argument.
Recognizing the true trend in crime rates is important to some extent, because disorder (real or perceived) creates vacancy for incitement. President Donald Trump politically, exaggerates or completely distorts the criminal situation in the United States and uses it to promote stricter and more cruel policing. He also believes deportation would reduce crimes – his administration even deleted the Justice Department’s webpage, noting that a report noted that undocumented immigrants have lower crime rates than native citizens in Texas.
Ironically, Trump’s policy choices may slow down or even reverse the positive trends that are happening right now. Reuters reported that the Justice Department canceled more than $800 million in grants through a judicial program. Giffords, a gun control group founded by former U.S. representative Gabby Giffords, warned that this includes important aid to local police departments to prevent gun violence and other forms of crime: “Trump is undermining the foundations of the national violence prevention program.” The administration’s economic policy could also put the United States in recession, which often leads to an increase in crime, as 2020 did in 2020.
The rise in crime driven by misleading policy choices will be tragic, especially as the shock in 2020 is gradually disappearing. Not only is good news difficult to find, it can also be fleeting.
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Stephanie Bai contributed to the newsletter.
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