Geopolitical uncertainty, oil prices with weak demand signals in China are almost unchanged

By Scott Disavino

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices remained barely changed on Tuesday due to uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while new government data has produced a cautious view of China's top Chinese economy.

Brent Futures cut 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $65.38 a barrel, while US Westexas Intermediate (WTI) crude glided 13 cents, or 0.2%, to settle for $62.56.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the U.S. demands that Tehran stop enriching uranium is "excessive and outrageous" and expressed doubts about whether negotiations on a new nuclear deal will be successful.

Stonex analyst Alex Hodes said a deal between Iran and the United States would increase oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day if sanctions are relaxed.

Iran is the third largest crude oil producer organized by the Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 2024, second only to Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to U.S. federal energy data.

The EU and the UK announced new sanctions on Russia on the day after U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, without winning a promise of a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Ukraine hopes that seven (G7) developed economies will reduce their price cap on Russian offshore oil to $30 a barrel. The current G7 cap imposed on Russia's war in Ukraine is $60.

"However, an immediate settlement of the Russian/Ukrainian war is indeed unlikely. So while it may lead to more Russian oil entering the market, it remains uncertain as Russia's obligations to OPEC+ are still indefinite."

An agreement to end the war between Russia and Ukraine could allow Moscow to export more oil to the world. Russia is a member of the OPEC+ country group, which includes OPEC and other producers.

According to U.S. federal energy data, Russia is the world's second largest crude oil producer after the United States in 2024.

China Data

At least seven Fed officials are scheduled to speak on Tuesday.

Traders currently expect the U.S. central banks will lower interest rates by at least twice in 2025, and are expected to make their first cut in September, according to data compiled by financial services firm LSEG.

Central banks like the Fed use interest rates to keep prices inflated. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and demand for oil by reducing consumer borrowing costs.

Data shows that growth in China's industrial output and slowing retail sales put greater pressure on oil prices, and analysts expect fuel demand from the world's top oil importers to drop.

However, the analysis does not reflect a 90-day pause in tariffs between the United States and China, with Goldman Sachs noting trade flows in China late Monday.

In Germany, Europe's largest economy, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil promises to increase investment measures amid global trade uncertainty and global trade uncertainty.

U.S. oil stocks

The U.S. Petroleum Institute (API) Trade Group and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release U.S. oil inventory data on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. (EIA/S) (API/S)

Analysts predict that the energy company has withdrawn about 1.2 million barrels of oil from U.S. stockpiles in the week ending May 16.

If correct, that would be the third drop in four weeks. The same week last year increased by 1.8 million barrels, an average drop of 3.5 million barrels in the past five years (2020-2024).

(Reported by Scott DiSavino, Trixie Yap and Laila Kearney; Editors by Jacqueline Wong, Clarence Fernandez, Saad Sayeed, Louise Heavens, Paul Simao and Deepa Babington)