The nature of Israel's feverish coalition politics has long favored drama. The stature and psychology of its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, further add to the element of panic and cynical calculation.

All of these characteristics are evident as Israel and Hamas inch toward a ceasefire, especially as Netanyahu struggles to triangulate his description of a deal that could harm him politically.

As many Israeli media outlets wasted no time in pointing out, the deal was essentially the same deal that Netanyahu torpedoed over the summer, resulting in the deaths of more Israeli hostages and soldiers in the months that followed. .

Furthermore, it is unclear to the Israeli right and far right how a negotiated solution would fit into Netanyahu’s promises of “total victory” and Hamas’s total defeat. On the contrary, if the deal succeeds, Hamas will likely survive and its wounded will travel to Egypt for treatment.

The reality is that an endless war in Gaza will always serve the interests of Netanyahu and his supporters more than the interests of Israelis as a whole.

This allowed Netanyahu and his supporters to put aside the question of responsibility for Hamas's failed surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. It also allows Israel's prime minister, who is on trial on corruption charges, to present himself in the dock as a figure preoccupied with national security and distracted by proceedings.

As a wartime leader, he invoked Israel's longstanding practice that unity should trump politics to hold together his knotty coalition of right and far-right parties.

The deal leaves Netanyahu exposed in all these respects, which explains why he feels uncomfortable being tethered to it.

The problem is all politics. Netanyahu is likely to win a binding vote in the cabinet, but his coalition could collapse if far-right parties withdraw, potentially hastening an election in which he is not guaranteed to win.

On top of that, there is a growing recognition that Donald Trump’s interest in Israel, its wars, and Netanyahu in particular is transactional at best and rests on a far more tenuous basis than his troubled relationship with the Biden administration , and the Biden administration has endured a mountain of humiliation. Netanyahu.

If there's a complication, it's that, in the short term, Israeli political analysts see an agreement to ensure the release of Gaza hostages and a phased end to Israel's offensive against Hamas as a welcome move that could be beneficial to internal affairs. Tanyahu.

“Netanyahu is wavering,” said pollster and academic Dahlia Scheindlin, who believes the Israeli cabinet will eventually sign off on the deal. "He was known to be paralyzed by stress. He was going through a period of being unable to choose between conflicting loyalties.

"But he created this situation, starting with him bringing in (far-right ministers) Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and then Each stage prioritizes them over other options.

"[Nevertheless]he is in a strong electoral position because he is seen as undermining the Iranian-led axis of resistance in Lebanon and elsewhere. He is back to his pre-war bases. With 70 percent of Israelis supporting the deal, He expects a boost."

The big unknown is how Trump and the incoming president's relationship with Netanyahu might develop.

"My feeling is, this is a missing piece," Scheindlin said. "What's the substance behind Trump's influence on Netanyahu (to reach a deal)? No one knows."

In particular, Netanyahu will rely on the Trump administration to protect him from arrest and prosecution by the International Criminal Court and to maintain U.S. military aid to Israel.

How interested Trump is in Israel and Netanyahu — beyond his loud insistence that he does not want to inherit the war in Gaza — remains unclear, and how Israeli voters will internalize the events of the past 15 months of war. The same is true. The prospect of early or other elections.

“You know what was written (in the agreement) and you know what was written in the previous proposal, we almost have an agreement with Hamas,” an Israeli official told Izvestia, summarizing the sentiments of many Feel. "It's shocking to think that we signed this agreement so long ago," the official said. "It's inevitable - along with the happiness comes the horrible thoughts that eat away at you relentlessly."

The combination of these pressures and uncertainties forced Netanyahu to declare what many suspected was a manufactured crisis in the deal, accusing Hamas of reneging on its promises, while also trying to suggest that Israel would be involved in the second phase of the deal. Get back into the fight.

Haaretz's Amir Tibon writes that this "version of the deal," which emerged in statements and briefings from Netanyahu's office and his media loyalists, states that the second phase of the deal is a dead letter and that Israel is single-minded. Restart the war after the war is over. Completion of the first phase, even at the expense of male hostages (remaining in Gaza after the first phase).”

What will occur to many observers is that it was this concern that continued to worry Hamas negotiators even as they signed the agreement.

If one thing is clear, it's that Netanyahu's behavior, whether intentional or not, is a bad sign for a deal that relies on starting new negotiations in phase one (before any phase two). Omen.

There are concerns that a phased approach would increase the risk of failure with each subsequent attempt. Even if the Israeli cabinet signs off on the agreement, it does not appear to be final.