The combination of “bullying and likable” by former UK Home Secretary Charles Clarke on U.S. President Donald Trump will last a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Trump made a "final" ceasefire proposal to Russia and Ukraine on April 17, which forced Kief to legally ced Crimea to Moscow without providing security assurances.

"From the beginning, my photos were essentially pessimistic, a big moment when Trump wanted him, and in the same way North Korea, he thought he could (coax Russia) into this situation," Clark said.

Trump also tried to force North Korea to conduct nuclear disarmament in 2019.

"I don't understand myself how (Ukrainian President Vodimir) Zelenskyy or Ukraine as a whole recognizes Crimea's control over Russia.

"He was shocked everything, but I think he was obviously too credible, and both Putin and Russia were too much for Russia throughout the process."

Clarke spoke with Al Jazeera on the sidelines of the 16th Baltic Research Conference in Europe, recently hosted by the University of Cambridge’s Geopolitics Centre and co-directed by Brendan Simms, a professor of geopolitics in Europe.

Can Europe face Russia?

The prospect of a possible ceasefire is rarely headlines.

Putin said on the weekend, Russia will negotiate "no prerequisites" with Ukraine after European leaders encountered a 30-day truce with Zelenskyy in Kiev.

Ukraine and Europe have filed a ceasefire document that, unlike Trump's plan, has no territorial concessions to Russia three years after its invasion of Ukraine. The question is whether Russia and the United States will and can continue to support it with military efforts if they refuse.

"Now, the situation with the U.S. evacuation may be too bleak, but it is definitely a possibility," Sims said.

Then, should Europe provide independent security guarantees for Ukraine?

"I do think we should do that, but I think we should only do that if we really commit to a mile with Ukraine," Sims said.

“For example, in a country like Germany, it’s easy to see a discourse that says ‘OK,’ Well, it’s awful in Ukraine, Trump is awful, but no, no, we won’t do anything to help Ukraine, we’re going to use Trump as an excuse to support Ukraine.” “This is the one you start to hear in German public opinion.”

Both Clarke and Simms believe that the ability of the Russian army to win incredible military victories in Ukraine has been overestimated due to the Kremlin touted narrative.

"People are too convinced that Russians have effective military and economic machines," Clark said. Russia failed to take over Kiev in 2022 and lost control of the Black Sea without a naval force.

Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine fell sharply, and two separate analyses were found last month.

The British Ministry of Defense estimates that Russian troops occupied 143 square kilometers (55 square miles) of Ukrainian land in March, compared with 196 square kilometers (75 square miles) in February and 326 square kilometers (125 square miles) in January.

A think tank war institute in Washington, D.C. found the same trend, with Russia estimated growth in March of 203 square kilometers (78 square miles), 354 square kilometers (136 square miles) and 427 square meters (165 square miles) in January.

This pattern of lower returns began in 2024, with Russia only confirmed in January in just 4,168 square kilometers (1,610 square miles) of fields and abandoned villages (equivalent to 0.69% of Ukraine) in one year.

The Ukrainian ministry said the cost of these insignificant soldiers was 430,790 soldiers, equivalent to 36 Russian mobile rifle divisions, exceeding Russian losses in 2022 and 2023. defense.

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense said that as Russia prepares to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the victory of World War II, Ukraine's losses are approaching one million points.

Al Jazeera cannot independently verify the casualty toll.

"They do have the weight of numbers, but the weight of numbers can be calculated only if you have a willing fighter jet," Clark said. "And there is a lot of evidence that there is a real problem with the Russian leaders in terms of attitudes from the Russian army and the Russian standpoint."

While Europe could ultimately improve its defense industry capabilities, Clark warned that Europe will still work to replace U.S. intelligence, political coherence, and command and control.

European power of the Baltic Sea

These issues have recently emerged as Europe struggles to address the possibility of holding peacekeeping ground forces in Ukraine.

Simms advocated the establishment of it, but opposed its deployment in Ukraine as a peacekeeping force.

One reason, he said, is that European military has not received drone warfare training now developed in Ukraine and will not be effective.

"Another consideration is that the Ukrainian army is our most effective ally. If we deploy troops as part of the peace agreement, this will by definition end the war in Ukraine and remove the Ukrainians from conflict, we will eventually be in a mobile force that puts us (the only force that we can deploy, its only force that can be deployed, no longer able to be fixed in the Ukraine. The Baltic states and Ukrainians in the north will no longer enter the field.

Sims said European mobile forces should keep the powder dry anywhere Putin strikes in order to be in the Baltic countries, while Europe helps Ukraine in long-range fires (drones and missiles) and provides air covers.

Russia's psyops: nuclear ransomware

Clark said it was "absolutely possible" for Europe and Kiev to win the war without Washington's support, but warned that if Ukraine "stands for so long that Russia would be in trouble", it was a "high-risk strategy."

Sims said that if Europe overcomes fear of nuclear extortion, Europe and Ukraine will win.

He said Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons from the outset, but did not use them when Ukraine regained 20,000 square kilometers (7,720 square miles) of its territory in September 2022, nor did it use them when Ukraine counterattacked Russia in August 2024.

However, there are concerns that nuclear retaliation will prevent Germany from providing Ukraine with its 500-km (310 miles) Taurus missile, which has a 450-kilogram warhead and hit at high speed, destroying its target.

"It is not clear at this point that if the power plant in Moscow is destroyed by Taurus, then (Putin) would use nuclear weapons. Actually, I don't think it's possible," Sims said.

"But he has achieved it through words, and I think the misunderstanding of the nature of deterrence, the shocking impact on the West, has cost the Ukrainians, wasted three years, and we have to solve this problem - before Donald Trump appears on the scene."