Emerging from the rubble of Los Angeles' raging wildfires are calls from local entertainment industry figures devastated by the blaze: to bring production back to the region.

“One of the most important things to do for our city is to shoot here,” wrote acclaimed cinematographer and director Rachel Morrison (morning show, The Mandalorian)’s Instagram posts went viral among those working behind the scenes in film and television. “We have some of the best workers in the world and they need their jobs now more than ever.”

Morrison's message points to an unprecedented decline in local production. The pandemic came first. Then came the strike. Just when Los Angeles' filmmaking industry seemed to have bottomed out and was about to rebound, a tit-for-tat battle for Hollywood funding in various shooting hotspots continued to escalate, as wildfires fueled by hurricane-force winds battered the city. It has caused massive damage in earthquakes, fires and civil unrest, but nothing like it has been encountered in recent memory. Apocalyptic flames, fueled by 100-mph wind gusts, destroyed more than 12,000 buildings built over more than a century in a matter of days, casting uncertainty into a bleak manufacturing environment that has yet to recover from the aftermath. Recover from a crisis that changed the world. The economics of Hollywood.

Now, Los Angeles faces a new set of challenges from the historic fires that, if not mitigated, could further erode its share of filming. Chief among them: The fires threaten to accelerate a small migration of entertainment industry workers from California.

The extent to which production is being affected by the number of filmmakers and crew members who have left their homes is unclear. Wildfires have destroyed tens of thousands of acres in Pacific Palisades and Altadena, two areas with close-knit film and television communities. While the names of celebrities who lost their homes grabbed the most headlines — Mandy Moore, Paris Hilton, Milo Ventimiglia, Jeff Bridges and Billy Crystal, to name a few — — but less well known are the losses suffered by local film and television crew members. The offline union IATSE estimates that at least 8,000 members have been evacuated or had their homes destroyed; Lindsay Dougherty, a senior staff member at Local 399, said her organization found at least 25 Members' homes were destroyed. An Excel document has been circulated listing the GoFundMe for affected crew members, which currently has more than 200 entries.

As crews disperse to relatives' homes, shelters, rentals, hotels and Airbnbs, production is likely to be affected, at least in the coming days and months. “The fire was definitely "This is bound to have an impact on the industry, especially in the short term. "

FilmLA President Paul Audley stressed that many workers in Hollywood and supporting industries have been "directly affected by this tragedy" and "many places beloved by audiences across the country may never return to the silver screen."

There are rumors of a larger exodus. Entertainment industry workers have left Los Angeles over the past few years as work slowed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2023 strikes and a wider industry contraction. Dutch Merrick, an experienced armorer and prop master who lost his Altadena home in the Eaton Fire, worries that "many people will be running away now, even more than before the disaster." To escape." While no one has heard of any definite plans to leave the area, the former president of IATSE Local 44 wrote in an article that "perhaps the insurance money will allow the otherwise bankrupt film crew to abandon Los Angeles for a cheaper 's ranch.”

This could be an inflection point where the fires could accelerate the exodus of talent and film crews from Los Angeles to other production hubs. After all, why live in Los Angeles, where the median rent is 70% higher than the national average, when Georgia has massive levels of production and a cheaper cost of living?

Those who stayed faced a housing market inundated with potential tenants displaced by the fires who bid up their bids. Los Angeles real estate agent Steven Moritz said 50 of his clients lost their homes, adding that before the fire, a house that was being rented for $7,500 received more than $1,000 last week. An offer was made for twice that price ($8,100 per month at lease signing). Los Angeles' housing crunch has been exacerbated by homeowners in Pacific Palisades and Altadena, some of whom received checks from insurance companies to buy temporary housing for the value of their previous properties.

"It's almost survival of the fittest," Moritz said. "The problem is there's a huge lack of product. By the time you get there and look, they're already rented out."

There is also the issue of production insurance. Wildfire season in Southern California typically runs from June to October. That changed, and with it came risky conditions for filming in some parts of the state, particularly those buffeted by Santa Ana winds.

Late 2024 and early 2025 are an atypical time frame for major wildfires in Southern California. Now wildfire season may only be year-round. Expect insurance premiums to increase and deductibles to decrease.

“The risk no longer has the same time limit,” said Kirk Pasich, an insurance attorney at McGuireWoods. “So if production occurs in January or February in wind-prone areas, prices will increase.”

Productions without major studio support will be hardest hit. Studios often purchase insurance for a series of films, which equates to lower prices because the insurance company can spread the risk across multiple projects in multiple locations at different times of the year. Independent production companies spend about 2% of their budgets on insurance, so don't have that luxury and may have to pay more for insurance. And in a filming environment where every penny is considered, the added cost can mean the difference in getting adequate financing.

"I suspect it will be difficult to get a policy, but the premiums will be higher than you've seen before," said Bryan Sullivan, an entertainment attorney who handles a variety of matters for production companies. "When you actually file a claim, there may be more resistance to certain obligations that you have. If an evacuation occurs, you may have to find a similar location."

Insurance policies will cover the cost of downtime caused by wildfires, but there is a limit. That's why banks and financiers that lend money to film and TV projects insist on a completion bond, which is essentially like another layer of insurance to ensure the production will cross the finish line if a shortage arises. The completion guarantee industry - which was reeling last year from the collapse of Film Finances, the global leader in film completion guarantees - may collectively decide that certain productions filmed in bushfire-prone areas are no longer available during high-risk times of the year. guarantee.

Equally important is how the wealthy, who invest millions of dollars each year in production (primarily in the independent film sector), lose their homes or suffer other financial impacts from the fires, respond to the crisis.

“A lot of high-net-worth film financiers are definitely affected,” said Elsa Ramo, a lawyer who handles production and distribution for companies including Fox and Skydance. “Will they give up on the L.A. dream or double down?”

Some Producers Guild of America board members lost their homes in the fire, according to a person familiar with the matter.

In the wake of the fires, Gov. Gavin Newsom's plan to save Los Angeles productions by more than doubling tax credits for film and TV productions from $330 million to $750 million annually became the The focus of people's attention. Whether current productions choose to film in the city at historically comparable levels depends largely on other changes to the show. Industry insiders have been calling for some changes, including broadening the types of spending and production categories that qualify for tax credits, such as reality TV shows, and increasing the maximum amount of subsidy an individual show can receive. One feature of California's film and television tax credit program in particular is exploited by competing jurisdictions to lure productions away: It's the only major motion picture ban on any portion of outside-the-line costs, such as actors, directors and producers' salaries. Center — Not eligible for tax relief.

“This is about getting profits to a level that is competitive with other jurisdictions,” said PGA CEO Susan Sprung. "Los Angeles has something that some other places don't have, which is the best crews and the best producers in the world. We have all the infrastructure, so you just have to get the budget close enough to make the case for why you want to shoot here ”

Rameau also said that an overhaul of the tax incentive program must be a "backbone of relief." She added, "Unless the government supports why people should film here, what's the point of rebuilding in Altadena if production has stopped?"

Still, Hollywood has long abided by the dictum that shows must go on, so any doomsday theories may be premature. One highlight is that the main sound stage where much of the television and film filming takes place in Los Angeles remains intact. Already several productions have been briefly paused due to wildfires – Max’s hacker and CBS NCIS and NBC's suitable for los angeles Among them - has been resurrected. From Doherty's perspective, it doesn't look like her members will be escaping anytime soon. In response to a question about whether the crew might leave Los Angeles, she said: "I would say the opposite, especially the members who lost their homes in Altadena... I think they would want to rebuild their community."

This story first appeared in the Jan. 17 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. To receive the magazine, click here to subscribe.