Fed's words today: "Uncertainty"

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US Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook held a Fed Campus Event on Friday, March 22, 2024 in Washington, DC.

In recent speeches and emergences by Fed policymakers, one word is a core theme: “Uncertainty.”

Two months after President Donald Trump announced the “Liberation Day” tariffs, Fed officials appear to be less close to the fog piercing the trade war, which prevents them from moving the central bank’s benchmark interest rates.

Three Fed officials who spoke on Tuesday stressed the need to be more clear about trade policy and how the economy will react to tariffs before any action is taken.

Officials have repeatedly expressed concerns in recent months: Scanning and frequently changing tariffs may raise consumer prices and slow down the economy.

The task of the Federal Reserve, which formulates national monetary policy, is to put inflation under control and employment levels, mainly by adjusting its influential Fed funding interest rates, which affects the borrowing costs of various loans.

The Fed's dilemma is whether to lower the Fed's funding rate from its current high levels to increase the economy and avoid unemployment, or to maintain a higher rate to calm inflation for longer, which still exceeds the Fed's annual 2% age target.

So far, the answer to the deadlock is to do nothing and see what happens. So far, neither the resurgence of inflation nor the unemployment rate has been achieved.

"There is a lot of uncertainty out there, so it's hard to predict the economy with confidence," Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, wrote in an article posted online on Tuesday. "Given that, I continue to think that the best way to monetary policy is patience. Since the economy is still very healthy, we have room to wait and see how the growth of uncertainty affects jobs and prices."

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook made a similar comment in a speech at the New York Council on Foreign Relations on Tuesday.

"I think the U.S. economy is still in a stable position, but the increased uncertainty poses risks to price stability and unemployment," Cook said in his prepared speech. "I will continue to monitor developments closely when I consider monetary policy decisions."

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said the economy was heading in the right direction before Trump launched the tariff campaign. He said in a Q&A in Davenport, Iowa that if these conditions are restored, lower interest rates will be orderly.

"The place entering April 2 is stable, full employment, and the price drops to the 2% target, so the interest rate will be lower than today's target," Goolsbee said.

"But, due to uncertainty, I can't be confident because who knows if we wake up tomorrow and tariffs will be restored to 50% of the world," he continued. "There are a lot of domestic production that will suffer and we have to figure out how to deal with it."

The Fed's strategy has aroused fierce criticism from Trump, who demanded lower interest rates. For their part, Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, insist that they make policy decisions based on economic rather than political considerations. So far, they have maintained interest rates throughout President Trump’s presidency.

Financial markets have translated the Fed’s non-communication information into expectations that central banks will cut tax rates in the summer. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors were priced nearly 70% on Tuesday, with central banks lowering a tax rate in at least September, which predicts rate changes in futures trading data based on Fed funds.

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