Fed officials remain focused on the possibility that tariffs will stimulate inflation

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Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said Friday that tariffs already pose an uptrend risk to inflation, and that continued job market elasticity means lower interest rates to increase job opportunities.

If you are waiting for the Fed to lower your borrowing costs, don't hold your breath. Among several Fed officials speaking on Friday, no one was in a hurry to lower the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.

In speeches and interviews, Fed officials expressed their views on President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign and how central banks might respond to the economy. Although Trump demanded lower interest rates, which would boost the economy, central banks have resisted so far, thus keeping interest rates stable due to fears that lower interest rates will cause inflation.

Federal Reserve officials soon opposed the idea of ​​lowering interest rates and the idea that independent central banks should take direction to elected officials. Economists predict that Trump’s tariffs will come into effect primarily in April, which will push up consumer prices and prevent work from happening longer, and the longer they stay in effect, could hurt both sides of the Fed’s dual mission to keep inflation high and jobs.

Pricing in financial markets could lower the benchmark interest rate in July as of Friday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. But the outlook and interest rates of the economy are more uncertain than usual - no one knows how the modern economy and its very complex supply chains react to the highest tariffs passed down from generation to generation.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John C. Williams stressed the importance of the Fed's "dual mandate" price stability in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday.

“One of the things we’ve learned from history is that having good inflation expectations and giving the public confidence that inflation will return to 2% regardless of what happens today, and we’ll make sure that this happens, which is very important for price stability,” Williams said. “In fact, this helps to enhance our ability to achieve both goals.”

Federal Reserve officials and many economists are closely watching consumer surveys on expectations of future prices that will rise because people think that inflation expectations may be a self-fulfilling prophecy: People can rush to buy goods before prices rise. This may cause a rush in demand, allowing businesses to raise prices.

Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler first raised the inflation issue when explaining why the Federal Open Market Committee, the bank's policy-making group, chose to stay uniform at higher rates at last week's meeting and spoke in another interview with Bloomberg last week. Coogler said progress against inflation has been slowing, and Williams echoed the concerns about maintaining public expectations for inflation before tariffs rocked the outlook.

“We see some upside risks to inflationary risks for tariffs that are currently met, and with that, it makes sense to ensure we keep federal funding rates moderately limited,” she said.

Kugler noted that the job market has remained resilient so she has hardly lowered interest rates to increase job opportunities.

Federal Reserve Gov. Michael S. Barr said it was unclear whether tariffs would cause greater damage to inflation or employment, so he favored waiting and seeing what emerged was a greater threat.

“I am equally worried that tariffs will lead to higher unemployment,” he said in his speech at the Economic Conference of Reykjavik in Iceland, according to the prepared speech. “So if we are to see higher inflation and higher unemployment, the FOMC may be in a difficult position.”

But at least one Fed official is unsure that tariffs will actually raise prices. While many economists expect companies to transfer the cost of import tax to their clients, Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, expressed doubts about how much this would happen.

"What I heard from retailers is that consumers will be out of shape," Bloomberg reported. "That means it's nice to say you'll continue to use it, but it's not as easy as you think."

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller focuses on the value of central bank independence. The Fed is structured so that its officials cannot be fired by the president. In the long run, this gives them room to make possible decisions, but are unpopular, and has caused damage to the president in the short term. Waller pointed out his own research, as well as other economists' research, that independent central banks have a better impact on the country's economy than those affected by politicians.

"I think it's been a test of time and I hope it will continue to exist for the next few years," Waller said in the Hoover Institutional Think Tank at Stanford University in California.

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