A friend asked me for advice on a few players to add to his fantasy basketball team. He plays in a 12-team H2H points league, and based on his "TLDR" reaction, I should give him a name instead of analyzing each player and their current circumstances.
This is a good reminder that my process won't work for everyone, but for those who might want to know my strategy for achieving immunity in points leagues, here are some tips to help me make my decision.
This is obvious, but it needs to be said. If a player has lit it recently, Notice. Maybe someone suddenly dropped 20 points in a game, or collected a ton of other statistics. Spurs streaks are important in points leagues because the scoring system doesn't punish inefficiencies other than turnovers.
For example, Cole Anthony (26% of rosters) has been a top-80 player over the past two weeks, averaging 33 points per game. Whenever a player gives up an average of 30 fantasy points over multiple games, it's time to scoop them up. Kel'El Ware (37% roster) is another example of a player who has recently reached the must-roster level.
If a person goes viral and you wait until their stats show up on Reddit or X, you're already too late.
Playing time is one of those "ugh" statistics that is necessary to generate fantasy points while also serving as a foundational anecdote for establishing a player's baseline. If someone suddenly logs starting-level playing time, they're more likely to post fantasy statistics because they're on the field for more time.
Opportunities can be created by injuries to teammates, rotating rotations or coaches benching underperformers.
Picture this - your starting center hurts his foot, and now the backup big man only gets 30 minutes a night (like Daniel Gafford). If you don't swoop in and grab that guy, you're going to leave points to your opponent.
Don’t sleep on your monitoring rotation, either. The coach may move someone into the starting lineup who will immediately benefit from having better players around him (like Nick Richards). Even if they're just a role player, getting consistent playing time is usually a positive sign for scoring fantasy points.
FPPM is the first and only advanced stat I cover here because I find it helpful in DFS, which has a scoring system similar to the Yahoo Points League. Fantasy points per minute (FPPM) is an excellent metric for measuring a player's efficiency per minute. If someone is averaging close to 1.0 fantasy points per minute, that's a strong indication that they can get any boost beyond their typical output in just a few minutes.
For example, let's say a bench player only plays 15-20 minutes per game but averages 1.2 FPPM. Suddenly, injuries shaved 25-28 minutes off their playing time. Do the math. That's probably a 30-34 fantasy spot (see: Tari Eason). Even if their actual scoring doesn't go up, they can accrue value just by staying active on the court.
Think of FPPM as a hidden gem metric - a clever way to discover the value of players who initially appear to be just "average". You can find FPPM data through Fantasy Labs.
More games increase your chances of earning more total fantasy points. Points league math doesn't get any easier than this. If you are keeping an eye on two potential players, be sure to check their upcoming schedule first.
Who will play four games next week while their opponent plays only two? Grab those who own four games, because one deal can lead to a multi-game fantasy production.
I always try to win a lot of games in H2H because even if you blow a streamer or two in a match, you'll have an advantage in extra games.
Not all points are created equal. Someone might give up 20 points, but if they don't do anything else, you leave value behind (see: Tim Hardaway Jr.). You should be looking for a guy who can give you everything - points, rebounds, assists, steals, you name it. These all accumulate in the points league and every point counts. Remember not to pay too much attention to FG% and FT% as they are not part of the Points League scoring criteria.
Players like this can be unicorns on the waiver wire (Carson Wallace), but they Do Happens more often than it seems. Even if you don't get a monster scorer, players who put up all-around numbers are just as valuable.
This is where you can get nerdy. I used FantasyPros and Hashtag Basketball's free defensive and positional tools to see if there were any exploitable matchups on the roster. Matching is important when considering waiver options. Will their defense leak points like a broken faucet? Is it against a team that ups the tempo, meaning extra possessions for everyone involved? These are all legitimate questions to consider when evaluating which players to stream.
Avoid putting someone against a top defender or a slower team that will make the game difficult. No one wants to watch their player end the dribble, take a questionable step-back, and have their fantasy score stay at "3" for half the game.
Don't get hung up on names. Just because a former All-Star doesn't mean they're going to actually help you. Use logic, not nostalgia.
Stay active. The success of a waiver wire transfer depends on speed. It's Week 13, stop "waiting and seeing," you need to act like your league is the NBA trade deadline.
Take risks. Some pickups will fail. move on.
Remember, the waiver wire can make or break your season. You won’t draft a perfect team, but stay informed, observe trends, and make informed choices. This will take you from a mid-level player to a contender.