A few days before Sunday’s Polish presidential election, a Polish friend of mine received unexpected messages from someone she had never seen in 20 years. The woman found my friend on Facebook and noticed that she was supporting the election of the liberalist Rafał Trzaskowski (Mayor of Warsaw), and begged her to change her mind. She asked her to vote for what he called the "noble battle", former boxer Karol Nawrocki. She sent my friend a copy of an anonymous appeal that appeared elsewhere on social media, but seemed to be one of many similar warnings that were widely circulated via email. It starts like this:

Because I married Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, and since he was a presidential candidate in the past, I have read a lot of things like this before (of course, of course, hereby declared the promulgation of interests). Nevertheless, the attraction my friend received seemed to me to be a particularly striking, almost paradigm invocation of blood and soil nationalism, part of Polish politics, American politics and European politics.

The news lists all crimes committed by a series of Polish central right and left governments, distorting records and rewriting the past 30 years of history, becoming trauma and victimized stories. A statement accused Trzaskowski and his countrymen of “allowing foreigners to rob Poland and humiliate us, forcing young people to immigrate in exchange for bread.” In fact, Poland has been a major beneficiary of foreign investment and EU funds, and has been growing for 30 years and is now one of Europe’s fastest economies. The level of social expenditure is also growing.

The appeal did not introduce these details. Instead, it warns against treason: "Wake up from your lethargy! Look at how Poland, your homeland, external and internal forces tear apart. Don't let her abuse, don't let her face be as sad as the soil of the cemetery."

Trzaskowski's campaign is very different from the language his supporters use. The mayor of Warsaw wrote the day after the election that he wanted to build a "strong, safe, honest and understanding Poland. A modern Poland where everyone can achieve their goals and desires." It is an optimistic message, but it is also a message, at least in most of the population, unable to compete with blood, cemeteries, humiliation and treason. The election was so close that the exit poll predicted that Trzaskowski won a narrow victory on Sunday night. But by Monday morning, most swept the opposite. Nawrocki won with 50.89% of the vote, winning 49.11% of Trzaskowski.

Poland's constitution has certain special characteristics, so its impact on policy and politics is not simple. Trzaskowski belongs to the Citizens Party now part of the government as a central tripartite alliance, left and right in the middle. The coalition won parliamentary elections in October 2023 after eight years of government leadership led by the Law and Justice Party, which nominated Navoloki. During its two term, law and justice politicized the Polish court system as well as civil servants and public media; it created a series of taxpayer-funded foundations designed to support the party and enrich some of its members. The current government cannot reverse all of these policies, as President Andrzej Duda, also aligns with the previous regime, has rejected or threatened to reject all changes.

Navoroki's election will not change Poland's foreign policy. The Polish Prime Minister, rather than the President, will continue to control domestic policies, budgets and trade. But because the president can veto legislation and pardon offenders, Navoloki's election may mean that the court cannot fix it, and those who violate the law or steal it from the state will have no consequences. It is frustrating, even devastating, for those who have tried to repair the Polish judicial system and protect Polish democracy over the past decade, followed by the same kind of condemnation and anger that echoed around Poland in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

But there is a bigger lesson for anyone else fighting spreading authoritarianism: the language of blood and soil is once again at the heart of public debate in many democracies, which is very powerful. It can help many people explain a complex world. It cannot be easily defeated or fired during an election cycle. In 2023, a victorious election in a centrist coalition did not remove it from Polish politics, just as Joe Biden's election in 2020 did not weaken his power in the United States

Meanwhile, the Nawrocki election does not mean that many people will now write that nationalism in Poland or Europe is "rising". In fact, the results of this Blade Edge election in Poland are almost exactly the same as those of the Blade Edge in the country’s presidential election five years ago.

If Trzaskowski wins another 0.9% of the vote, there will be no final defeat against authoritarian populism. Nor are other narrow victories elsewhere. When a centrist candidate beat Romanian authoritarian populists a few weeks ago, some viewed it as a possible start to the trend. However, during the next election, the same challenge will be seen in Romania and will once again become the decisive argument for the campaign.

That's what all elections look like, for a long time. Although many hope otherwise, we don't seem to go back to a world where the left and central right wing compete for tax rates or budgets. Economic and policy arguments do not matter to people’s current impact on these deeper cultural divides. That's why all elections are now there: a minority of voters wield one way or the next one will determine the nature of the state, the future of democracy, the independence of the courts.

Every time we participate in a poll, politicians say that every election is important and every vote is important. They will be right.