EU officials and senior diplomats say Donald Trump's return to the White House is restoring a stagnant plan to build a strategic partnership between the EU and major Indo-Pacific trading groups.
Brussels’ plan to build stronger ties with the comprehensive and progressive agreement of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (12 countries including Canada, Japan and Mexico) has gained momentum after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in April.
While “still early,” the two sides “moved into a space where we were willing to engage in some kind of structured cooperation with the CPTPP,” an EU Commission official said.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told FT in April that the two sides wanted to cooperate on the rules “about how fair trade around the world works better”.
Von der Leyen said both groups wanted to use the current turmoil to study what the World Trade Organization must improve “and how we work together to achieve this.”
Brussels’ new openness with the partnership, which may include closer ties in digital and commodity trade, marks the highest level of attitude change in the EU.
Officials on both sides said the idea would umbrella the national economy of about 30% of global GDP and would send a signal that most global trading systems are committed to protecting rules-based orders now threatened by Trump’s tariffs.
Previous attempts to deepen ties in 2023 did not gain diplomatic appeal, but at the time the Swedish National Trade Commission reported an independent government agency that believed that the agreement between the group might make them "a center of world trade."
CPTPP was founded in 2018 and includes Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United Kingdom and Vietnam. It provides equal treatment for investors and deeper commodity trade. The EU has reached bilateral deals with nine CPTPP members.
Among CPTPP countries, the biggest support for closer EU ties comes from New Zealand, Canada and Singapore, but diplomats say Japan also quietly supports it.
The Canadian Foreign Ministry said the country is committed to strengthening trade relations with Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, although a spokesperson insisted that “no decision or agreement was made.”
The Prime Ministers of New Zealand and Singapore also recognized the idea of deeper collaboration between the two groups in recent weeks.
Diplomats say a mechanism for turning this passionate sentiment into a formal dialogue process has not been established, partly because Australia currently holds the rotational presidency of the CPTPP and holds a general election this weekend.
EU diplomats say the establishment of the new Australian government is expected to lead to the recovery of stagnant EU-Australia bilateral trade agreement negotiations, which could also provide a political forum to open up the broader EU-CPTPP dialogue.
Another CPTPP diplomat said the mechanisms for EU cooperation could be improved at the Trade Ministers' Meeting held at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in South Korea this month.
Supporters of a fast deal include Cecilia Malmström, a former EU trade commissioner at the Peterson Institute for Peterson Institute of International Economics, who said there is clearly “momentum” behind the idea.
"If that happens, it needs to happen very quickly - this year," she added. "The EU is a slow animal, but just look at the past three months and really trying to defend the urgency of rules-based trade."
Any arrangement parameters are still to be agreed upon. Von der Leyen said there is no plan for the EU to join the CPTPP.
A CPTPP official said the possible framework could involve a “dual track” process that included a “new code of conduct” in which ministers jointly confirmed their commitment to WTO rules, as well as separate dialogues to discuss coordinated rules in key areas such as digital trade and sustainability.
Meanwhile, in order to appear as an anti-U.S. group, and acknowledge that some trade complaints in Washington are justified, agree that they may also wish to reform with the WTO.
The most ambitious proposal to reach a deal between the two groups also raises the possibility of the parties agreeing to “accumulate” the so-called rules of origin that are used in free trade agreements to determine whether the product has enough local content to qualify for the preferential Lower Tariff access to the market.
Proponents of the idea say this will make it easier for EU and CPTPP companies to integrate their supply chains and make it easier for them to import goods to each other’s countries.
The idea was proposed by the Trade Commission in Sweden, which was reiterated in a recent report by the Bruger think tank in Brussels, but it was clear to the Commission officials that it is not the EU's choice at the moment.
Other reports in Sydney and Tokyo Lewis NIC Filmes