According to Apollo Global Management, the economic impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will soon be obvious to everyday Americans and lead to a recession this summer.

Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok is providing clients with a timeline that shows when the impact of the tariffs announced by Donald Trump could hit the U.S. economy. According to the speech, U.S. consumers may start noting trade-related shortages in local stores next month, based on the shipping time required for Chinese goods.

"The result will be empty shelves in the U.S. stores in a few weeks, similar to a common shortage for consumers and companies that use Chinese products as intermediate goods," Slok wrote in a note to customers on Friday.

• April 2: Tariffs are announced, containers depart from China to us to slow down
• May to the middle: Container ships at U.S. ports cease
• May to May: Truck transport demand ceases, resulting in empty shelves and lower company sales
• Late May to early June: Layouts in trucking and retail industries
• Summer 2025: Recession

Source: Apollo Global Management

To support the idea that the U.S. economy is on the brink of a recession, the introduction also includes data showing new orders for the business, earnings outlook and capital expenditure plans, which have dropped sharply in recent weeks.

The Trump administration announced some tariffs on April 2, but has a higher responsibility in China. Finance Minister Scott Bessent admitted on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday that the current tariff standoff with Beijing is "unsustainable". Now, the tax rate for goods from China is 145%.

China is not the only source of consumer goods, but it does play an important role in the U.S. economy. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the United States imported $438.9 billion in goods from China, lagging it behind the list of trading partners above Mexico and Canada.

While many on Wall Street now say the U.S. recession may be in 2025, Sloch's prediction is a more pessimistic side. Bessent said the government expects the economy to have a "detox period" due to trade negotiations, but it is not necessarily a recession.

There is also some evidence that there is “hot” in orders before the tariff announcement, which can make the goods last longer on the shelves than the Apollo schedule.

"Don't expect empty shelves - (so far) stocks are still increasing and demand is slowing," Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman said in a note to clients on Monday.

- Michael Bloom of CNBC contributed the report.