Elon Musk tweets so much that people bet more than $1 million a week on guessing how many tweets there are

Will Elon Musk tweet more than 400 times this week? More than 800? Calculate it correctly, and if you back up your thesis by buying "shares" on Polymarket, you could end up with a nice chunk of cash.

The sometimes controversial Polymarket is one of the Internet's "prediction markets." When you feel the urge to express your opinion on the internet, it's a peculiar and rather sophisticated way of keeping your word. Even if your point of view is "I bet Musk will tweet over 400 times this week."

In fact, Musk's "market" tweet on the site was so active that it was given a top-level website link and repeated weekly. This week's market ended on January 17 with trading volume exceeding $1.9 million and typically exceeding $1 million. That’s not to say you’re going to win that much money. If your tweet count guess holds true, your payout will depend on how many shares you buy. (Polymarket did not respond to our request for comment on how much the market has paid.)

Polymarket Elon Tweet Prediction Market January 14 — Polymarket’s Elon Tweet Prediction Market

Field records show it has been held weekly since at least June. In the second option, users can bet on a number of tweets ranging from 300 to 550 more, in increments of 25 tweets.

Chatter in the market also turned serious, sounding a bit like racetrack punters talking about their picks of ponies. For example, on Tuesday, user "Rogu" analyzed, "The current number of tweets per day is 50 and is expected to reach 350. To reach more than 400, he would need to average more than 65 tweets per day for the remaining time." While that number is a bit more, it's not "that much." With Starship test flights looming, he'll likely be tweeting more than he has in the past few days. "

Rogu was referring to SpaceX's Starship Flight 7, which is scheduled to launch on January 15.

Polymarket Elon Musk Twitter Market — Polymarket Elon Musk tweets the market volume for a given week.

Polymarket's main competitor, Kalshi, also has a top link to Elon Musk, but it links to a variety of bets on Musk, from his possible role in the new administration to expectations for his future. Net worth speculation. (No doubt people can bet on these things or buy shares on Polymarket as well.)

But the amount of time Musk spends on his favorite personal social media sites has always been a favorite. This has got to be one of the silliest yet funniest ways people spend money on the internet.