Eli Lilly announced it is lowering its 2024 revenue forecast by $400 million, a 3% decrease from October 2024 guidance.
The revised outlook discussed at the 2025 J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 14 attributed the diabetes glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) market to inventory levels and fourth-quarter 2024 Unexpected market dynamics.
Eli Lilly currently expects global revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 to be approximately $13.5 billion, an increase of 45% from the fourth quarter of 2023. The growth was driven by strong performance from its incretin drugs, including diabetes treatment Mounjaro (tezepatide), which had 2024 revenue of $3.5 billion. sales, as well as the obesity drug Zepbound (tirsiparatide), which had sales of $1.9 billion. Additionally, the company reported 20% revenue growth for non-incretin products in oncology, immunology and neuroscience. Despite these gains, overall revenue forecasts are still lower than initially forecast.
Following the announcement on January 14, the company's shares fell 7% before recovering slightly, closing 5% below the opening price.
Eli Lilly and Company CEO Dave Ricks acknowledged the challenges of forecasting growth in the rapidly expanding GLP-1RA market.
In a conference speech, he said: "It's always disappointing to miss your own expectations. The business we're dealing with is unprecedented in our industry in terms of size, scale and growth rate."
Mounjaro and Zepbound faced significant disruption last year due to shortages of their active ingredient, tirzepatide, as demand outstripped supply. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced the end of the shortage in December 2024 after Eli Lilly made significant manufacturing investments. These shortages have prompted some patients to seek alternatives from compounding pharmacies, hurting sales momentum.
Eli Lilly and Co. has asked to join a rival lawsuit filed by compounding pharmacies against the FDA after the agency decided that the company's blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes drugs were no longer in short supply. Eli Lilly said it cannot rely on the FDA to fully defend its interests.
The court case will determine whether compounding pharmacies and facilities can continue to sell cheaper versions of the company's tezepatide-based drug, as they were allowed to do during the shortage.
To meet growing demand, Ricks said Eli Lilly plans to "increase marketable incretin production by at least 60% in the first half of this year compared to the first half of 2024." The company's investments in manufacturing infrastructure underscore its growing importance. GLP-1RA treats diabetes, obesity, and related conditions such as sleep apnea and heart failure.
Eli Lilly's revised 2024 guidance highlights fierce competition in the GLP-1RA market dominated by Novo Nordisk and other emerging players. Both companies are vying for a share of the booming diabetes and weight-loss drug industry, which is expected to generate billions of dollars in revenue over the next decade.
In addition to Mounjaro and Zepbound, Eli Lilly has launched an oral obesity drug to advance its portfolio. Ricks said the pill's convenience and scalability could further solidify Eli Lilly's position in the market because "there is a significant segment of the population that prefers oral medications."
Despite recent adjustments, Eli Lilly remains optimistic about its long-term growth. The company expects sales to be between $58 billion and $61 billion in 2025, and GlobalData expects annual sales for Zepbound and Mounjaro to reach $27.6 billion and $35 billion, respectively, by 2030.
GlobalData’s parent company is Pharmaceutical technology.
Eli Lilly is committed to expanding access to obesity treatments while leveraging new treatment indications and ensuring pricing stability for its portfolio. In addition to incretin-based drugs, the company is driving growth in oncology, immunology and neuroscience, demonstrating the diversification of its revenue streams. The company plans to release full fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 6, 2025.
Elsewhere at the conference, Amgen announced it hopes to become a major market player in obesity with its therapy MariTide. The company hopes the drug's once-monthly dosing regimen and the company's manufacturing capabilities will make it a major player in the field.
"JP Morgan 2025: Eli Lilly misses 2024 revenue forecast of $400 million" was originally created and published by Pharmaceutical Technology, a brand of GlobalData.
The information on this website is included in good faith and for general information purposes only. It does not constitute advice on which you should rely and we make no representations, warranties or guarantees, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or expert advice before taking, or refraining from, any action based on the content on our website.