Eli Lilly (LLY) fell more than 6% after its fourth-quarter 2024 revenue guidance on Tuesday fell short of Wall Street expectations.

Eli Lilly cut its revenue guidance 5% to $13.5 billion, $500 million below the $14 billion consensus. But the guidance is still up 45% from the same quarter in 2023. Eli Lilly previously provided guidance ranging from $13.9 billion to $14.5 billion. The company also provided full-year 2024 guidance of $45 billion, a 32% increase from 2023.

"While the U.S. incretin (hormone that helps regulate post-meal blood sugar levels) market grew 45% compared with the same period last year, our previous guidance expected faster growth this quarter. Beyond that, - Anticipated channel inventory at the end of the year contributed to our fourth quarter results, and we continue to make progress with our manufacturing buildout, with all doses of tilsiparatide available in the U.S. throughout the fourth quarter," said David Eli Lilly and Company CEO. Ricks said. A statement.

The stock's move surprised some experts and analysts, as the market had expected a softer fourth quarter.

Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger wrote in a note to clients: "While this is the second consecutive quarter of disappointing results, we expect financial results and pipeline news flow beyond 2025 (particularly oral GLP -1 or forglipron Ph3 results) would be encouraging."

JPMorgan analyst Chris Short agrees. "Overall, while Q4 dynamics represent a loose end of the story, we expect the focus of the story to shift to RX's continued growth, newly released 2025 guidance, and a number of upcoming catalysts."

Eli Lilly expects its most talked-about blockbuster products, its GLP-1 tezepatide products Mounjaro and Zepbound, to also fall short of consensus.

Diabetes drug Mounjaro is guiding for $3.5 billion in revenue, while weight-loss drug Zepbound is expected to do $1.9 billion in the quarter.

Zepbound's average weekly prescription volume increased 241% year over year in the quarter, while Mounjaro's increased 51%, according to JPMorgan's latest weekly prescription tracking, based on data from pharmaceutical data firm IQVIA.

Anjali Kemlani is a senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all things pharmaceutical, insurance, nursing care, digital health, PBM, and health policy and politics. Of course, this includes GLP-1. Follow Anjalee on social media platforms X, LinkedIn and Bluesky @AnjKhem.

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