Economic slowdown doesn't dampen India's appeal in Davos

World Economic Forum in Davos on January 20, 2025.

Fabrice Coferini | AFP | Getty Images

This report comes from this week's CNBC "Inside India" newsletter, which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big players behind its meteoric rise. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

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Seven years ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke in Davos about India's ambition to become a $5 trillion economy by 2025.

"India's people and youth are now ready to contribute to the creation of a $5 trillion economy by 2025," he outlined in his speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2018.

Modi added: "Not only that, when innovation and entrepreneurship... help individuals transform from job seekers to job providers, then one can only imagine the number of avenues that will open up for their country and for your business."

To be fair, achieving this has proven difficult.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that the size of India's economy this year will be about US$4.27 trillion, which is US$0.73 trillion less than Modi's target.

The economic slowdown has raised questions about the country's lofty growth goals. Market observers believe that India is currently in the midst of a cyclical slowdown.

But interestingly, the Indian story and its growth potential continue to capture the attention of investors in India, Davos and beyond.

India is among the top five regions where global CEOs want to invest in the next 12 months, according to a survey by consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). Among 4,700 CEOs in 109 countries, other regions making the top 5 include the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and mainland China.

Optimism about India is spreading amid ongoing discussions in Davos.

Khaldoon Al Mubarak, managing director and group CEO of Mubadala Investment Company, described India as "a very, very interesting country (and) a very interesting market" in an interview with CNBC on the sidelines of this year's World Economic Forum.

In his view, one of the most salient indicators of India's potential is its large and young population. Mubarak said there are approximately 480 million Indians under the age of 18, a number greater than the combined population of the United States, Europe, the Middle East and South America.

"We have been investing in India for many years... We remain committed to building our portfolio in India and really getting into the wave that has started," he said.

He added that this cycle "is, in my opinion, going to continue."

Mubadala's investments in India include Tata Group's Tata Power Renewables and Reliance Industries-Supported by technology giant Jio Platforms.

Prosus is another investment firm looking to cash in on India's growth potential, particularly in the country's technology sector.

Fabricio Bloisi, the company's chief executive, told CNBC on the sidelines of the summit: "You see the impact of technology in India... They say 'we are ready for the next step'."

"Prosus is ready to invest more, more in India. We have invested about $8 billion in India over the past few years and we will invest more," he added.

Prosus has invested in Indian startups including food delivery company Swiggy, edtech company BYJU's, agritech company Dehaat and e-commerce platform Meesho.

Vigorously develop science and technology

Interest in India - particularly its opportunities in the tech and startup sectors - is consistent with the government's broader focus on growing the sector.

One of the key priorities for the Indian delegation to Davos this year is to deepen its foothold in the semiconductor industry through government incentives and targets.

This includes exploring the development of its own graphics processing units (GPUs) in the next three to five years, Minister of Railways, Information Technology and Information Broadcasting Ashwini Vaishnaw told CNBC-TV18 on the sidelines of the WEF meeting.

Other projects he revealed include India's plans to develop 25 indigenous chipsets designed and manufactured in the country. It is expected to launch the first chip in September and the first fab in 2026.

Vaishnaw also outlined the government's goal to provide underlying computing power through 1,000 GPUs, especially for the benefit of startups who lack access.

This is part of the government's focus this year on developing talent and using data to create powerful datasets to train artificial intelligence models, he added.

According to reports, Vishno led India's largest delegation at Davos this year, consisting of representatives from eight states: Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, each state is vying for investments for upcoming schemes.

For example, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu reportedly showcased the state's business-friendly policies in the hope of attracting multinational companies such as Unilever, PepsiGoogle Cloud and AstraZeneca.

Meanwhile, its neighboring state Telangana has showcased its expertise in electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. According to reports, Maharashtra claims to be the industrial powerhouse of India.

The heavy presence of Indian officials in Davos may be an acknowledgment of the fact that businesses, especially those that are only a few years old, need more capital than they can raise at home.

Foreign investment into the country is "drying up" due to economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, said Dhiraj Neeam, currency strategist and economist at ANZ.

One way forward, he suggested, is for the Indian government to "increase confidence by reducing political and regulatory costs and making it easier to do business in India."

"There is a lot that India can do even if global variables are out of control. India plans to become a developed country by 2047, so we need stronger growth than the 6-7 per cent we are used to. And growth will come through increased investment and improved labor productivity and technical capabilities to make it happen,” Nim added.

How India plans to continue growing at a sustainable rate while providing jobs and increasing productivity is a top concern for the Indian government. In Davos, India's Minister of Railways, Electronics and Information Broadcasting, Ashwini Vaishnaw, sat down for a discussion with a group of global executives, investors and Indian entrepreneurs. Brunswick Group and CNBC organized a breakfast on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum where executives and investors could ask questions of the minister and discuss India's investment climate.

need to know

India may lower disinvestment target for FY25. According to the Economic Times, citing people familiar with the matter, the country’s government plans to cut the disinvestment and asset monetization target by 40% for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, from 500 billion rupees to less than 300 billion rupees (approximately 3.47 billion rupees). Dollar). discuss. Regulatory hurdles and valuation difficulties have proven to be obstacles, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has still sold more stakes in state-owned companies than previous administrations.

The Quad met and reaffirmed their partnership. Foreign ministers from the group, which includes the United States, Australia, India and Japan, met on Tuesday to stress the importance of maintaining a free Indo-Pacific, according to a joint statement issued after talks in Washington. Analysts said the meeting, hosted by U.S. Secretary of State Rubio on his first day in office, was aimed at making it clear that confronting China was the top priority of the Trump administration.

Oil prices in India may rise. The United States imposed new sanctions on Russian oil on January 10. With India importing about 40% of its oil from Russia, New Delhi could face a sudden supply crunch, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler. Viktor Kurilov, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, told CNBC that supply disruptions in India could be as high as 500,000 barrels per day. To mitigate potential oil shocks, Indian importers are looking to source oil from Middle Eastern suppliers.

What happened to the market?

Indian stocks have been mixed this week. this nifty 50 The index fell 0.03% this week to close at 23,205.35 points.

India's 10-year benchmark bond yield remains flat at 6.78%

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This week, BNP Paribas India analyst Kumar Rakesh expressed optimism about the Indian auto industry on CNBC television. Rakesh said India's exports of passenger cars and motorcycles have been growing at a fairly strong pace in recent years, especially in markets in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Additionally, Indian automakers are able to enjoy greater profitability as their domestic production costs are among the lowest in the world.

Meanwhile, Jose Rasco, chief information officer for the Americas at HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth Management, acknowledged that the Indian market is not cheap, but that is because investors are "paying for quality." Some of the features of India that attract investors are its young and diversified economy, good legal system, and rising productivity in recent years.

What happens next week?

Central bank meetings and earnings reports from big tech companies will be in focus next week. Meanwhile, water management and infrastructure company Denta Water and Infra Solutions listed on the Indian market.

January 24: India January HSBC PMI Preview, Bank of Japan meeting, Japan December inflation rate, UK January S&P PMI preview

January 29: Fed meetingDenta Water and Infra Solutions IPOs, Meta Platform, Microsoft and Tesla earnings

January 30: U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product, ECB meeting, Apple and Intel earnings reports