On Friday, a better-than-expected December jobs report spooked markets and sparked talk of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates at all or possibly raising rates at some point.
To a large extent, economists believe the employment data heightened concerns about whether inflation will start to show signs of softening, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025. Early evidence of this trend came from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday.
On a "core" basis that excludes volatile food and gas costs, prices rose 3.2% compared with the previous year. This marked the first time core CPI fell since July.
While economists don't expect the data to prompt a rate cut at the Fed's January meeting, some do see a path to a rate cut later in 2025.
Citi economist Veronica Clark wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday that markets "overestimated the stickiness of inflation."
"Details in December's data should also encourage the Fed to ease monetary policy further, with many factors broadly in line with expectations and in line with pre-pandemic standards," Clark wrote.
“Weaker inflation should give the Fed more confidence that the recent acceleration was just a shock,” Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote. “This print is consistent with our March rate cut. The appeal is unanimous.”