Donald Trump's tariffs aren't China's only problem
U.S. President Donald Trump, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping greet attendees waving U.S. and Chinese flags during a welcome ceremony outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, Thursday, Nov. 9, 2017Getty Images

Trump says he has been talking to China's Xi Jinping through aides since election

Beijing announced on Friday that China's economy will grow by 5% by 2024, one of the slowest growth rates in decades.

The country has been struggling to emerge from a protracted housing crisis, high local government debt and youth unemployment.

Beijing has set an annual growth target of "around 5%," and President Xi Jinping said last month that the world's second-largest economy was on track to achieve that target.

"As always, we grow in the wind and rain, grow in the difficulties, and we must be confident." He said.

Experts generally agree - the World Bank has said lower borrowing costs and growing exports mean China can achieve annual growth of 4.9%.

However, investors are bracing for the looming threat of President-elect Donald Trump imposing tariffs on $500bn (£409bn) worth of Chinese goods.

However, this is not all that will help China achieve its growth target next year.

Business and consumer confidence are low, and the yuan will continue to weaken as Beijing cuts interest rates to boost economic growth.

Here are three reasons why Xi Jinping faces a bigger challenge Trump's tariffs:

1. Tariffs have hurt China’s exports

There is a growing chorus of warnings that China's economy will slow down in 2025. A key driver of last year's growth is now at risk: exports.

China has been relying on manufacturing to help emerge from the economic slowdown - as a result, it has been exporting record numbers of electric cars, 3D printers and industrial robots.

The United States, Canada and the European Union accuse China of producing too many goods and have imposed tariffs on Chinese imports to protect domestic jobs and businesses.

Experts say Chinese exporters may now focus on other parts of the world. But these countries may be in emerging markets where demand levels are not as high as in North America and Europe.

That could hit energy and raw material suppliers by affecting Chinese companies looking to expand.

Xi Jinping hopes to transform China from the world's cheap goods factory into a high-tech powerhouse by 2035, but it's unclear how manufacturing can continue to be such a huge growth driver amid rising tariffs.

2. People aren’t spending enough

In China, household wealth is mainly invested in the real estate market. Before the housing crisis, it accounted for almost a third of China's economy - employing millions of people, from builders and developers to cement producers and interior designers.

Beijing has implemented a series of policies to stabilize the property market, and financial markets regulator the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has said it will strongly support the reforms.

But there are still too many vacant homes and commercial properties, and oversupply continues to drive down prices.

Pedestrians walk past a shopping mall decorated with red lanterns and signs reading Getty Images

Deep-seated problems in China's economy need to be addressed with stimulus spending, experts say

The downturn in the property market is expected to bottom out this year, but Wall Street banking giant Goldman Sachs said the downturn will be a "multi-year drag" on China's economic growth.

This has already dealt a heavy blow to spending - in the last three months of 2024, household consumption contributed only 29% to China's economic activity, down from 59% before the epidemic.

This is one of the reasons why Beijing has stepped up its export efforts. It hopes to help offset sluggish domestic spending on new cars, luxury goods and just about everything else.

The government has even introduced policies such as Consumer goods trade-inwhere people can replace washing machines, microwave ovens and rice cookers.

But experts wonder whether these measures alone will be enough without addressing deeper problems in the economy.

They say people will need more money in their pockets to get a return on their spending before reaching pre-pandemic levels.

"China needs to restore people's animal spirits, but we are still far from this goal," said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank.

"If the private sector starts investing and innovating, which can increase incomes and job prospects, people will be more confident to spend."

Heavy public debt and unemployment have also affected savings and spending.

Official data shows youth unemployment rate Still high compared with before the pandemic, and wage growth has stalled.

3. Businesses no longer flock to China as before

President Xi Jinping has pledged to invest in cutting-edge industries that the government calls "new productive forces."

So far, this has helped China become a leader in renewable energy products such as solar panels and electric vehicle batteries.

Last year, China also surpassed Japan to become the world's largest automobile exporter.

A clean energy vehicle ro-ro ship Getty Images

Electric vehicle exports a huge growth driver for China

But sluggish economic conditions, uncertainty over tariffs and other geopolitical uncertainties mean foreign interest in investing in China has been dampened.

Stephanie Leung of wealth management platform StashAway said it's not about foreign or domestic investment, but that companies don't see a bright future.

“They want to see a more diverse pool of investors come in.”

For all these reasons, experts believe that measures to support the economy will only partially mitigate the potential impact. New U.S. tariffs.

Shan Hui, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a recent report that Beijing must either take large, bold measures or accept that the economy will not grow as fast, adding: "We expect they will choose former."

"China needs to stabilize the property market and create enough jobs to ensure social stability," said Standard Chartered's Mr Ding.

According to researcher China Dissent Monitor, More than 900 protests took place in China The period from June to September 2024 is dominated by workers and owners - a 27% increase compared to the same period last year.

Such social pressures due to economic dissatisfaction and loss of wealth will be a concern for the Chinese Communist Party.

After all, explosive growth has turned China into a global power, and the promise of rising prosperity has largely helped its leaders keep a tight lid on dissent.