South Asia Editor
If there was one thing in the Indian Foreign Ministry for decades, it was third-party mediation - especially in a long-standing dispute with Pakistan in Kashmir.
Well, those who know are not surprised that US President Donald Trump, known for his unorthodox diplomacy, touched the original nerve in Delhi.
On Saturday, he went on social media to announce that India and Pakistan (after four days of cross-border conflict, India and Pakistan) have agreed to the "full and immediate ceasefire" facilitated by the United States.
Later, he said in another post: “I will work with you both to see if a solution in Kashmir can be reached in a thousand years.”
The Kashmir dispute dates back to 1947, when India gained independence from British rule and was classified as making Pakistan. Both neighbors claim to require Kashmir in general but only partially managed.
Over the past few decades, several rounds of bilateral negotiations have proposed no solution. India regards Kashmir as an integral part of its territory and excludes any negotiations, especially through third parties.
The latest outbreak began with an air strike on the so-called terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan, killing 26 people, mainly tourists, after the attack on Indian-managed Kashmir tourists last month.
India accused Pakistan of being involved in the incident, an allegation denied by Islamabad.
Trump's intervention was as the battle between two nuclear-weapon competitors threatened a spiral mature conflict.
Both sides use fighter jets, missiles and drones and say they target each other's military devices, mainly in border areas.
Although U.S. mediators, together with diplomatic post-channels, prevented the bigger fire, President Trump's proposal put Delhi on the scene.
Former Indian Foreign Minister Shyam Saran told the BBC that India is not popular with India.
Delhi's position in Kashmir has become stronger, especially after the withdrawal of special status in Chamu and Kashmir in 2019, sparking widespread protests in Kashmir.
President Trump's recent remarks have angered many Indians, who see it as an attempt to "internationalize" the Kashmir dispute.
The main opposition Congress party hopes for an explanation of the government and a whole party meeting, "first is the ceasefire announcement in Washington, DC."
"Did we open the door to third-party mediation? The National Congress wants to ask if diplomatic channels between India and Pakistan are reopening," said Congress party spokesman Jairam Ramesh.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a ceasefire and said the two countries also agreed to "begin negotiations on a wide range of issues at neutral locations." This surprised the Indians.
Delhi refused to discuss with Islamabad, accusing its neighbors of supporting so-called cross-border terrorism.
Historically, India opposes any third-party mediation, citing an agreement signed in 1972 after a war between the two countries broke out a year ago. According to the SIMLA agreement signed by the country's leaders, they are "decided to resolve their differences through peaceful means through bilateral negotiations".
Indian officials also argued that even if they reached an understanding with Pakistan’s civilian government, the country’s powerful military operations undermined the deals. They pointed to the 1999 Kagir War, when another conflict between the two countries occurred when a group of militants supported by Pakistan occupied the strategic area of Kashmir managed by India.
The conflict occurred when the then Prime Minister of India and Pakistan agreed to resolve the issue through bilateral negotiations and avoid interference in each other's internal affairs.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration has not formally responded to President Trump's proposal to mediate.
But Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said: "India has always maintained a firm and uncompromising position in all forms and forms of expression. It will continue to do so."
This is believed to indicate that India may not resume bilateral talks anytime soon.
The scenery in Pakistan is different.
"Pakistan has always wanted to conduct third-party mediation in Kashmir," Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Islamabad Research and Security Research Centre, told the BBC.
"Now, the superpowers are willing to stick their necks out. Pakistan will be a moral victory," Gur said.
Pakistani strategic experts such as Syed Muhammad Ali believe that this is because India has consistently refused to interact with Pakistan and the international community should intervene to avoid any future conflict.
"Kashmir is one of the most critical issues for the international community. The recent rapid escalation proves that Sabray's messy efforts may be out of control," Ali said.
India's confident diplomacy, especially since Modi took over in 2014, has been seen as a sign of rising global economic power.
However, it will have to achieve tough balancing behaviors to avoid Trump's progress.
In recent years, the United States has been a bastion of China, which has increasingly believed in it. India, along with the United States, Australia and Japan, are key members of the Quad Security Dialogue Group (Quad) to oppose the formation of Chinese expansionism in the Indo-Pacific region.
In recent decades, Washington has also sold modern transport aircraft, helicopters and other military equipment to Delhi, which is keen to modernize its 1.4 million military force, which relies heavily on Russian weapons.
The former U.S. governments realized India's sensitivity to the Kashmir issue and were largely away from interference. But with Trump, it is a question mark whether the position still exists.
The United States is India's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching approximately US$130 billion (£98 billion) in 2024. The Modi government is currently conducting a trade agreement with Washington to avoid tariffs.
Delhi will have to walk a thin line. Reluctant to accept Trump’s mediation or see a ceasefire or “understand” what it says, which would not object to this being unwilling, which is beyond the current military tensions. But this also desires to establish a good deal relationship with the United States.
Any attempt to expand negotiations - attempts to address controversial bilateral issues such as the currently suspended river water treaty or Kashmir's status - will cause strong criticism at home, a pitfall Modi is well aware of.