Despite increased uncertainty about tariffs, trade policies and the economy, most major railway companies are persevering in their 2025 outlook – in contrast to a wave of guidance from other industries.
Among the five publicly traded Class I railroads, guidance from Canada, South Norfolk and United Pacific maintained full guidance, while Pacific Kansas City and CSX adjusted for first-quarter earnings over the past three weeks.
This guide is a key barometer of executive confidence in market conditions.
CPKC (NYSE:CP) maintains its forecast for mid-digit growth, but trims its revenue guidance slightly, citing the impact of the stronger Canadian dollar. (The company reported in Canadian dollars.)
"There is no doubt that we started a strong start in 2025 and we also had a strong start in the second quarter," said CEO Keith Creel. "With that being said, there is certainly an undeniable macroeconomic uncertainty, uncertainty in trade policy and currency uncertainty. So, based on what we know today, we do think it is prudent and responsible to adjust our guidance at the moment."
Despite its cross-border network related tax risks, CPKC still expects the number of mergers-related growth this year. It also aims to develop new transportation connecting Canada and Mexico as the United States raises trade barriers.
"We stepped into this trade storm, that is, we are becoming market makers. We see opportunities for new trade flows between Canada and Mexico," Crier said, which includes southbound goods of refined fuels, LPG, plastics and grains, and northbound movements of electrical appliances, furniture, food, finished vehicles and auto parts.
Similarly, CSX (NASDAQ:CSX) still expects to see full-year growth for the whole year, but withdraws previous guidance, bringing traffic growth to a range of 2% to 5%. Chief Business Officer Kevin Boone said freight demand remains strong despite the economic uncertainty of the trade war. Railways are also relying on automotive growth as new customer facilities open and enhanced production this year.
CPKC and CSX are far from alone, as many large companies reduce financial guidance or directly withdraw it when they announce first-quarter earnings. Among the companies that suspend or reduce their prospects, General Managers, Stellantis, UPS, JetBlue, Delta Air Lines and Harley-Davidson.
CN (NYSE:CNI) forecasts revenue ton-mile growth this year. Its forecasts depend heavily on the support of new customer facilities online this year and are easy to compare compared to the cumbersomeness of last year’s workforce turmoil in the dent of railways and Canadian ports.
"There is no doubt that uncertainty has increased over the past few months and we have seen a rise in recession risk in Canada and the United States," said Tracy Robinson, CEO of CN. "It's hard to say what's going on from here right now. While we're optimistic that the U.S. will eventually reach trade agreements with Canada, China and other countries, we don't know what these deals will look like and won't happen. We do know, what we know is that CN has a full attitude to enable global trade, regardless of the trade pattern that may change."
NS (NYSE:NSC) sticks with its revenue growth for the year 3%, and its operating ratio of 1.5 points. "At present, there is no clear information on how tariffs affect our ultimate market and revenue," said CEO Mark George.
About 75% of traffic in southern Norfolk is domestic business. "How tariffs will work will be hard to say, but I don't think it will make as meaningful as we risk the broader economy," George said.
After stumbled upon the operation for more than a year after the derailment of hazardous materials in East Palestine, Ohio in February 2023, NS is now operating smoothly and has resumed highway and rival CSX.
"Our strong focus on the regained market share gives us confidence that we have a good place to alleviate some of the uncertain market conditions we are seeing," Chief Business Officer Eggins said.
"It's likely to be bumpy," Chief Financial Officer Jennifer Hamann said in confirming the prospects for the Pacific League (NYSE:UNP).
But CEO Jim Vena said there is no reason to go back and predict, especially because the railroads run well and handle products that consumers and the industry use every day. "It was simple things that were originally coming this morning, just say, listen, we're attracting our guidance," Vena said. "But we have a job to do, and our job is to react to everything that United Pacific throws at us."
Traffic volume continued in the second quarter, and veins showed that trade policy would be resolved sooner or later. “I never intended to be against the American economy or the United States in general,” he said. “So, at the end of the day, I think we end up in a good place, whether it’s in a few weeks or six months.”
The BNSF rail is owned by conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, who will report its first-quarter earnings with the parent company over the weekend.
Although trade uncertainty first appeared on FreightWaves, Class I railroads remained optimistic.