San Miguel Dunias of Guatemala - Guatemala president Bernardo Arévalo recently stood outside a large new avocado packaging plant and linked high demand fruit to rural development when the U.S. ambassador was attending, saying the facility marks a new chapter in the trajectory of cash crops.

But six months after the U.S. green light to Guatemala for imports of avocados, Central American countries have not sent any fruit to the north. Despite this, expectations are still high.

Mexico has been the main source of imports of avocados to the United States for decades, as well as small quantities from several South American countries. Guatemala hopes to start similarly, but wants to capture its proximity and export experience to Europe to expand rapidly and meet the growing demand of the United States.

"Currently, there are 17,300 acres (7,000 hectares) of fruit growing, but it could reach nearly 75,000 acres (30,000 hectares) over the next 10 years," said Francis Bruderer, president of the Guatemala Avocado Producers Association.

When the U.S. announced import permits last November, Guatemala's Department of Agriculture estimated that the country could initially send 1,700 tons to the U.S., but reach 15,000 tons by 2030 to 2030. It is unclear how these expectations are affected by the 10% tariff, which was announced by U.S. President Donald Trump this month, including Guatatemala, including Guatatemala, including Guatatemala.

Bruderer, standing in his own avocado orchard, with trees bagged separately to protect pests, said growing more and more avocado trees each year, and now only dropping rubber and African palm trees within land coverage.

The new avocado packaging facility comes with its own helicopter and is located at the end of a dirt road. When it opens in August, it is expected to employ hundreds of people in Barberena, about a 1½ hour drive south of the capital and surrounding areas.

It was built by one of the largest avocado suppliers in California.

“Guatemala is an emerging force in the international avocado industry, with mission products leading the region’s development in global avocado production,” said Juan Rodolfo Wiesner, president of Southern and Central America.

Steve Barnard, the company's executive director, said it was a "strategic investment" aimed at strengthening the company's position as a world leader in avocado.

In the dedication of the facility last week, Arévalo praised the quality of Guatemala avocados and said their output has already hired about 6,000 employees.

“For us, this is a concrete opportunity, which means promoting rural development and sustainable economic growth,” Arevalo said, pointing out the presence of the U.S. ambassador.

The Guatemala Ministry of Agriculture said that the still obstacle is the U.S. government approval of Guatemala's avocado export plan. Inspectors must make sure that avocados are shipped to the United States without pests.

Another challenge may be the U.S. tariffs on imports.

As Guatemala tries to enter the US market dominated by Mexico (exports of 1.4 million tons per year), Mexico's avocados do not currently face tariffs, putting Guatemala at a disadvantage.

"There is a lot of caution and fear among economic players because things are not clearly defined and they are waiting for government negotiations (with the United States)" said economist Ricardo Barrientos.

But Guatemala may have other advantages.

In recent years, the United States has temporarily suspended avocado imports from avocados after inspectors are threatened or attacked, and has conducted inspections in the Mioaacan state.

Long ago, profitable fruit attracted the attention of powerful organized crime groups in Mexico that ransomed avocado growers and packers. In September, the United States announced that it would pass the inspection duties through the Mexican government.

As the industry develops, these security threats may also occur in Guatemala. As forests are chopped to grow the water needed for avocado orchards and trees, the country must also closely monitor deforestation, both of which have become a sensitive issue in Mexico.

At present, there are no regulations on water for avocado orchards, but the Ministry of Agriculture said: “Big companies use drip irrigation to optimize water resources.”

“To produce and export avocados, good agricultural practices must be implemented to promote good fruit and environmental management,” the ministry said.

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