Even at the best of times, long-term observation can be very fragile. It is difficult to convince the funding institutions to put money into long-term observations because by definition, they are ongoing. They have done it before. From scientific institutions to charitable organizations, most funding entities want to be associated with exciting, groundbreaking work and ongoing observations, which is too routine to start from scratch. (Dave Keeling's record in his autobiography, Rewards and penalties for monitoring the earthAt some point, the National Science Foundation Program Manager asked that in order to maintain funding, he made two discoveries from the record of carbon dioxide levels each year. )
Another vulnerability stems from the fact that researchers who perform continuous measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be less than 30. Patience and attention to detail are required, and it may take years to accumulate enough data to answer key questions or make groundbreaking discoveries. Researchers must be very diligent and rigorous to ensure that the measured values in 1958 are comparable to those in today’s measurements. Calibration is endless trivial matters. This scientific pursuit is not suitable for everyone.
On the contrary, while the keel curve has reached its iconic global importance, it may actually hinder rather than help the funding situation. Environmental programs are often organized by geographic fields and disciplines, such as the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Program, the NSF’s Arctic Observation Network and the U.S. Forest Service. In these focused efforts, the overall situation may be lost. As the field of climate change develops, we find it difficult to find sponsors who assume the responsibility of measuring the entire planet’s vital signs.
The initial Mauna LOA measurement began in the International Geophysical Year 1957/1958. This is a huge, outstanding effort by the United States and 67 countries, whose goal is (simply) to measure every physical attribute possible on Earth within a year. It has led to many important scientific discoveries and has established many measurement programs worldwide. For example, it established the Antarctic Station, home to important climate research that is still underway today. It was a period of optimism, international cooperation (even at the height of the Cold War), huge dreams, global cooperation. The United States is proud to lead.
This effort continued until the 1970s, when conservative Republican President Richard Nixon established NOAA to better understand the ocean and atmosphere of the world. By the 1980s, NOAA grew into a thunder of global climate science in Scripps’ efforts. Now, just three months after the Trump administration, we are considering taking the U.S.-led leadership in marine and atmospheric science, as well as the largest and most critical observation networks of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and their calibration laboratories.
Our colleagues at NOAA are alive every day and are not sure if tomorrow will be their last job. We pray that common sense will prevail and that NOAA will survive the worst. Regardless of its fate, we will continue to fight to preserve the ability of the world to pass through any support we can call, a small fortress for the new dark age of climate science.