In the years leading up to the 2024 election, the traditional idea about Donald Trump in the democratic world was him'High floor, but low ceiling': An unshakable foundation for support, but not much development potential. A new, in-depth study of voter data in 2024 (the most detailed autopsy of the November election results) reveals the concept once and for all.
Every four years since 2016, Progressive Data Corporation Catalyst has done the hard work to compile voting history and census data for every region of the United States to understand who votes for who, who stays at home and how these voting patterns have changed over time.
The “What Happened in 2024” report confirmed that the 30 million voters who participated in the polls in 2024 failed to achieve this. It's a big number, which is back to the highest number of voters in 2012, when 27 million voters failed to return to the polls. The difference is that in 2012 (from 2024 to 2024, every election) every election was overwhelmingly biased toward Democrats, replaced by new voters, who were overwhelmingly biased toward Democrats.
In 2016, 24 million voters (57% of whom voted for the Democratic Party) were replaced by 33 million new voters (55.3% of whom were Democratic). In 2020, 21 million voters (54.9% of Democratic Party) were replaced by 40 million new voters (55.3% of Democratic Party).
In 2024, for the first time since the catalyst began its post-election analysis, not only are there fewer new voters (26 million) than voters (30 million) (30 million), but in the deadly case, these new voters are not primarily Democrats. In 2024, only 48.5% of new voters support Kamala Harris. Trump, it turns out Have done it There is room for growth.
The Catalyst chemist’s “What Happens in the 2024 Report” is a sober document for Democrats: It not only demonstrates Trump’s ability to convince new voters, but also shows that Harris has lost his stance in almost every demographic group compared to Joe Biden’s performance in 2020, including groups that have historically been very loyal to Democrats.
The biggest losses for the Democrats in 2024 are Latino men (who support fell 12 points from 2020), blacks (who support fell 7 points) and young voters. Between 2020 and 2024, support for Democrats aged 18 to 29 totaled as much as 6 points, even as younger voters grew into voter share.
The report shows that only Harris performs well, Joe Biden, is a white, married woman, and that is a percentage point improvement. Meanwhile, support for Democrats among Latino women fell (down 7 points), while AAPI women (down 4 points) meant that the female candidate for the second female president lost support among women (down 1 point) compared to her predecessor.
One of the few highlights of Democrats in the report is that Harris has performed better among the most attractive voters – voters who have appeared in the last four presidential elections than any of the last two Democratic candidates. At the same time, these voters are called "super voters" in the catalyst report, which is more than their share since 2016.
Unfortunately for Democrats, Trump has outperformed new and sporadic voters, i.e. those who voted in the past four elections, two or three elections.
The catalytic report appears in a fierce party debate, as far as exactly what happened in 2024. The report and its thousands of different data points will be used to justify different arguments and agendas. At the end of the day, progressive campaign strategist Anat Shenker-Osorio said: “The main point is that the source of the loss is /and: both are on the Democratic side and on the vote conversion.”