Just as President Donald Trump’s tariffs were bitten a lot from manufacturing in North America and Asia, the trade armistice arrived, and April’s purchases retreated sharply after rushing to hoard supply, according to the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index.

"The pause in tariffs is a major relief for U.S. and Chinese manufacturers," said John Piatek, vice president of GEP Consulting. "Our supply chain volatility index shows that manufacturing demand in China is falling sharply, and U.S. manufacturers are actively storing key inputs to reduce tariffs."

But according to Piatek, the trade deal won’t quickly expose U.S. manufacturers about how to reduce risks associated with China. “When they manipulate to reduce risks and limit exposure to China, the rapidly changing landscape and uncertainty are making manufacturers’ outlook and suppressing their capital investments and supply chain curbs,” he said.

The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses, tracking demand conditions, shortages, shipping costs, lists and backlogs.

"The first hit of the tariff war has fallen on global manufacturers," Piatke said. Supply chain volatility data should warn that if the United States and China are not permanently extended after the 90-day pause and the trade war re-estimation.

According to Piatek, data showed that in April the “Hockey Stick” (Hockey Stick), North American companies actively stocked their inventory with what he called “interest rates.” Meanwhile, “the first signs of manufacturers with slower demand and shortage of supply are expected to appear,” he said.

Asian manufacturers have been at the weakest purchasing activity since December 2023.

A highlight in Europe is offsetting one of the highlights of manufacturing where the industrial recession is coming to an end. The UK is the first country to sign a preliminary trade deal with the United States, and according to data from the past two decades, supplier activity has dropped to record lows and supplier activity has dropped to record lows. But the supply chain capacity of Germany and France, which has been underutilized over the past year, reflects growth. Piatek warned that this could be reversed if global trade conditions worsen.

GEP data also showed increased backup capacity for Asian supply chains led by China, Taiwan and South Korea in April.

Virginia Port CEO Stephen Edwards told CNBC in an interview this week that if supply chains have fewer futures, and more and more in South Asia, South Asia and Europe, U.S. ports can be positioned for this growth.

“Our fastest growth in the last four years is the Indian subcontinent, then Vietnam, then Europe,” Edwards said.

Trade from China has been in Port Virginia for the past four years.

"This is our second largest trading group after the EU. So, it's still a big obstacle," he said. "But if this will migrate over time, no matter the new trade environment is an opportunity. We haven't seen a trade agreement yet, but we think it will be less of China and more from Southeast Asia and Europe. I think we're in a good position," Edwards said.