As Frodo said after destroying the Ring while sitting on a boulder surrounded by a river of lava in The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King: All is done.

After two postponements due to the devastating Los Angeles wildfires, the nomination voting period for the 97th Academy Awards has officially ended. While the Producers Guild of America, the Writers Guild of America and other major associations have provided some insight into which films may dominate this year's Oscars, one thing remains certain: The Oscars are almost certain to bring surprises.

For seasoned awards experts, predicting the Oscars always involves careful calculations, spirited debate and private, off-the-record conversations with Oscar voters. These conversations are usually filled with insider insights and candid opinions, but this year took on a different tone. After wildfires broke out in parts of Los Angeles, many experts were hesitant to help. Amazingly, voters reached out and made compassionate inquiries about the well-being of journalists and their families — a touching reminder that even in Hollywood, humanity transcends glitz.

After pleasantries were exchanged, the conversation naturally turned to movies, which provided a welcome distraction from the chaos. For voters, discussing movies became a source of comfort during challenging times. During these exchanges, trends and insights about this year’s competition began to form. From potential Best Picture front-runners to unexpected snubs, here are seven key takeaways from our conversations with Academy members, as well as some burning questions as we prepare for the nominations announcement on January 23.

Have voters finished watching The Fauves?

Brady Corbet's The Beast is a strong contender in this year's competition with a Golden Globe win. However, some voters admitted they "didn't finish it" or "didn't finish it", citing its demanding running time and intense subject matter. While this likely won't hurt the film's chances of nominations — many expect it to receive at least eight nods — it could explain why supporting actress hopeful Felicity Jones won't be available until the second half of the year , and her key role didn’t appear until the second half of the year. t gained more attention.

A Ballon d'Or win still matters.

While debate continues about the relevance of the Golden Globes, wins at the awards show are undoubtedly significant. Some voters admitted the Golden Globes influenced their viewing lists, thrusting films like Fernanda Torres' "I'm Still Here" and Kieran Culkin's "True Pain" into the spotlight. Meanwhile, high-profile contenders such as Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez” and Edward Berger’s “Conclave” have made their mark on certain A win in the category, solidifying their status as a must-see. For a film that's teetering on voters' radar, this recognition could mean the difference between a nomination and not.

Critics and Audiences ≠ Academy Voters

This year, the divide between critics, audiences, and Academy members has been particularly stark. For example, critical darlings like RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys” and Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths” have struggled to turn their momentum around Enthusiasm for voters. Emilia Perez, on the other hand, has lukewarm Rotten Tomatoes scores (76% critics, 40% audiences) and is widely expected to dominate the nominations, potentially becoming The most nominated non-English language film in Oscar history.

Likewise, James Mangold's Bob Dylan biopic "Total Unknown" (79% on Rotten Tomatoes) received enthusiastic support among Academy members, despite mixed reception elsewhere Mixed. These cases highlight that Academy voters operate on their own wavelength, driven by personal taste, nostalgia and cinematic resonance rather than external indicators.

The strange case of “category fraud” and possible shifts in action

"Category fraud" has become a buzzword this awards season, with social media and voters alike calling out seemingly leading performances in favor of increasing their chances of winning. Zoe Saldana in "Emilia Perez," Kieran Culkin in "True Pain," and Ariana Grande in "Wicked" are just the ones discussed There are several examples of performances that appear where they are billed as supporting roles despite their considerable screen time.

"I love them, but honestly, she's a leader," one acting branch member said, referring to Saldanha. These dynamics could lead to unexpected results, split votes or unexpected rankings, echoing past Oscar shocks.

This leads me to offer some scenarios (not predictions yet?) about what nominations morning might look like. Please bear with me; I'm a journalist and try to explain things mathematically (not my strong suit).

The first is business as usual for "Emilia Pérez," with Carla Sofia Gascon becoming the first openly transgender actress to be nominated for a starring role, while Saldana continues her lead in supporting roles .

But what if there’s a twist?

If we see the latest Kate Winslet ("The Reader") category switch, in which Saldana's performance is listed as the lead role alongside her co-stars, it will be the first to follow Geena Davis and Susan ·Sarandon's "Thelma and Louise" (1991).

Another result was that Gascogne was left off the list entirely, leaving Saldana to represent the film alone as a supporting actress. According to Academy regulations, if a performance is in the top five for both lead and support in the same performance, the performance with the most votes will be nominated. With the competition for Best Actress so tight, it will be interesting to see how the votes are divided among all the contenders.

The final scene, which coincidentally seems the most far-fetched of all these hypotheses, but also the most likely, is a shocking retelling of Judas and the Black Messiah (2021), which has always featured the lead Identity's LaKieth Stanfield, a season-long cast member, surprisingly appeared alongside his eventual Oscar-winning co-star Daniel Kaluuya. Following the 2021 nominations, I explained why this happened.

In a conversation with an acting branch member, when I asked them if they voted for Gascón, they responded, "Oh, yeah, yes, right?"

When told that Gascón was leading and Saldanha was supporting, they quickly yelled, "Yes?!" I don't know where they ended up voting, but it set off a potential alarm. How will this change the campaign and who will be eliminated? I couldn't even wrap my head around that.

Will women and POC be excluded from best director?

The best director award has long been a challenging space for women and people of color, and this year is no different. Although Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Rummel Roth (Nickelodeon), Coralee Farget (Materials) and Payal Kapadia ( The Light We Imagine) was critically acclaimed, but none of it was considered a lock. Jacques Audiard, Brady Corbet, Edward Berger and Sean Baker appear to be firmly in the race and the final spot seems destined It would go to someone like James Mangold or Denis Villeneuve — safer, more traditional picks — or a potential wildcard.

Can Clint Eastwood's "Juror No. 2" deliver the ultimate shock?

Among the surprises of the season, Clint Eastwood's "Juror 2" was mentioned by voters far more than I expected, and has the potential to become the last and greatest movie we're all trying to figure out. A strong contender for best film. The film, rumored to be Eastwood's final film, won the admiration of producers and directors voters, many of whom saw their votes as a symbolic gesture to the legendary filmmaker. Also a "middle finger" to Warner Bros. Limited edition. Just its inclusion would be shocking, but it's enough. On top of that, this could be the film's only nomination, which would be its first since Oxbow (1943) received a single nomination for Best Picture. This may be crazy enough, but it also makes sense.

Jamie Lee Curtis is the best Oscar contender alive.

If there was an Oscar for Best Campaign, Jamie Lee Curtis would win in a landslide. The veteran actress won her first Oscar for "Every Moment" and has been working tirelessly to promote her co-star Pamela Anderson and her film "The Last Showgirl." Curtis' genuine enthusiasm and tireless support did not go unnoticed, with voters praising her charisma. After receiving nominations from both the Screen Actors Guild and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, Curtis is poised for a second Oscar nomination. The studio needs to get her a role in what you consider to be a Best Picture front-runner. She'll help you get to the finish line.

Voters love challengers, but are there enough of them?

Luca Guadagnino's steamy tennis drama "Challengers," starring Zendaya, has quietly built a passionate fan base among voters. The film's blend of sports and sexual tension resonated with young Academy members. However, its chances of receiving attention remain uncertain after being dropped by BAFTA, PGA and SAG. Its best moments seem to belong to the original screenplay and score (it won at the Golden Globes), and maybe even Best Picture. But it’s hard to make phone calls.

Voters have always supported watching "feel-good" movies.

One thing is clear from these conversations: Voters are looking for movies that provide a sense of joy, escapism and uplift. After a week of non-stop bad news about wildfires, especially for those who live in Los Angeles, many people who have the energy to watch a few more movies are being drawn to films they consider "easy to watch." These include the folk-era nostalgia of "A Complete Unknown" and the green-and-pink musicality of "Wicked."

My theory is that this feeling may have profoundly influenced some international characteristics. Many of the 15 shortlisted candidates were considered "frustrating" by multiple voters. Still, it's worth noting that this might affect a film like Germany's "The Seed of the Sacred Fig," which, at 2 hours and 40 minutes long and admittedly grim (albeit brilliant), might not be the ticket for voters Things to prioritize when casting. vote.

The final forecast is due to drop next week. Until then, happy predictions.