When Donald Trump completes his once-unimaginable return to the White House, he will face a more violent and volatile world than when he reluctantly relinquished power four years ago.
And his presence behind the Resolute desk feels destined to further destabilize the desk.
Trump has laid out mysterious plans to quickly end the raging wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. He made enemies of his allies and considered returning to the days of American imperialism, when the United States could simply seize the territory it wanted. He and his advisers have threatened trade wars and aligned themselves with movements that erode democracy and support rising autocrats.
Trump is once again poised to pursue an “America first” foreign policy — inward-looking and transactional — at a time when a lack of superpower leadership could embolden China to take action against Taiwan or lead to renewed conflict in the Middle East, as it did here The region appears to be on the verge of its biggest transformation in generations.
"Trump's performance this time is less surprising, but it will be a test. The international system has shown that Trump is not an instinctive alliance supporter and will be erratic," said James, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. Stavridis told me. "Allies and adversaries alike will know that nothing is free; everything is negotiated."
Biden officials privately lamented the powerful power Trump would inherit. He will preside over a healthy economy and will be the first U.S. president in decades to take office without a major military deployment in an overseas war zone. The raging conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza - which Trump has called for an immediate end - appear to be at an inflection point, with both war-weary sides showing a willingness to talk.
The president-elect has said that if Hamas does not release the hostages it holds when it takes office on October 7, 2023, "the Middle East will pay a heavy price." After months of negotiations by President Joe Biden's team, a breakthrough to halt the fighting and release some hostages appears imminent.
The moment arrived in the final days of the current president's term, but Trump was quick to take credit - the deal was struck with input from his Middle East envoy - even though a permanent solution to the conflict remains elusive Sure. And his intervention did seem to play a key role in achieving the breakthrough. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems eager to start Trump's second term on the bright side of the incoming president-elect, and Hamas may be intimidated by his rhetoric. But as a ceasefire slowly unfolds in the coming weeks, Trump's explosive behavior could easily jeopardize the fragile agreement.
During his re-election campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed that he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine "within 24 hours," but he later softened that claim. Indeed, nowhere was his swearing-in more nervous than in Kiev. Trump, of course, has long derided the NATO alliance that underpins Ukraine. Despite the Biden administration's last-ditch efforts to protect Ukraine, Moscow has made some progress. The president-elect hopes to negotiate a swift end to the conflict, which seems likely to ratify some of the territory acquired by Russia.
A Trump-led White House and a Make America Great Again-oriented House of Representatives have shown no interest in providing substantial aid or military equipment to the front lines, and while Europe will valiantly try to remedy this shortcoming, without U.S. support Ukraine’s self-defense Efforts will suffer. Russia's advantage in manpower - bolstered by the North Korean military it uses as cannon fodder - will only widen, and Russian President Vladimir Putin may become more confident that he can simply win a war. A war of attrition.
A senior U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the incoming administration said Trump's longstanding respect for Putin is a serious concern, especially if Russian aggression triggers NATO's mutual defense treaty. “If Trump gives in to Putin an inch, he will give in a mile,” the official told me. "If he completely turns his back and encourages him to walk out of Ukraine, think of what the cost would be if Article 5 were triggered. Then we have American skin involved."
Already, divisions have emerged in Trump’s circle about the best approach toward Ukraine and beyond. Steve Bannon, the right-wing firebrand and Trump’s first aide, has always opposed globalism. Tech billionaire Elon Musk has emerged as Trump's most influential informal adviser, using his wealth and social media influence to support right-wingers in Britain and Germany eager to leave Kyiv. This echoes the approach of incoming vice president JD Vance.
But not all members of Trump's team are in lockstep. Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio has been a defender of NATO, while Trump's incoming national security adviser Mike Walz has strongly advocated tougher sanctions on Moscow's energy sector to strangle Putin's government economically.
These divisions feel familiar. Trump’s first-term foreign and national security teams—all initially Republican stalwarts whose views were closer to Republican orthodoxy than those espoused by Make America Great Again—often found themselves at odds with themselves . Both camps are often frustrated by a president with few consistent aspirations beyond his need for adulation.
The result is a disjointed foreign policy. North Korea's Kim Jong Un was initially the recipient of "fire and fury" but later received what Trump called "beautiful letters." China went from enemy to friend and back again. Even as his administration imposed tough sanctions on Russia, Trump continued to court Putin, siding with the dictator over U.S. intelligence agencies in Helsinki.
His new crop of advisers believe that unpredictability, which has brought chaos before, could give Trump an advantage on the world stage this time. If foreign adversaries cannot predict Trump's response, will they dare to test him? Trump himself leaned toward the idea in October, when he told wall street journalThe editorial board said he didn't have to use force to stop Beijing from blocking Taiwan because Chinese President Xi Jinping "respects me and he knows I'm crazy."
It's far less well thought out than Richard Nixon's "madman" theory of the case and stems more from Trump's own whims and self-awareness, but his advisers believe the end result could be the same.
This was on full display during the transition, to put it mildly.
The map shows the familiar landscape of the Western Hemisphere, but with the U.S. borders cartoonishly expanded and has become a popular right-wing meme. Suddenly, Greenland became part of the United States. Look closely, the same goes for the Panama Canal. Canada—our friendly, polite neighbor to the north—is now the 51st state.
Even in Trumpland, there's debate over the extent of these territorial advances, with everyone agreeing that Trump sent Donald Trump Jr. to Greenland or called Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "governor" ”, which involves reasonable malicious attacks. ”. But foreign capital has long since learned to take the elder Trump literally and seriously.
Trump's desire for Greenland - based on its strategic location and rich resources - has unsettled not only Denmark, the island's ruler, but also other NATO members who have rejected the incoming U.S. president Shocked by the ruling out the use of force to seize the island. Likewise, Trump's threats to Panama and bullying of Canada, including warnings of sweeping tariffs, have once again sent a clear message to the world: Under the 47th president, the United States cannot be expected to enforce a rules-based order without This order defines America. Postwar Era.
Spokespeople for the Trump transition did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
In the Middle East, Israel's response to the events of October 7 created a humanitarian crisis in Gaza but also destroyed the Iranian proxies that had served as a buffer against Tehran for decades, leaving the regime vulnerable again.
"Iran is now at its weakest since 1979," Joe Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday. "Lebanon has a ceasefire and a new president has the potential to create a new political future. Russia and Iran in Syria The lackey (Bashar al-Assad) is gone.”
During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear agreement with Iran, implemented "maximum pressure" sanctions, and brokered the Abraham Accords to further isolate Tehran. He authorized the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the general who commanded Iran's militias and proxy forces across the Middle East. His cabinet is now filled with Iran hawks, including Walz, which could put him at odds with Gulf allies who appear more inclined to try to thaw relations with Tehran.
The only certainty is more uncertainty. The president-elect was quick to embrace the confusion when asked by a reporter at a news conference last month about his plans for Iran.
"How can I tell you something like this now? It's just... you don't talk about this until something may or may not happen," Trump said. "I don't want to insult you. I just don't think I would answer something that has to do with there or anywhere else in the world."