Consumer prices rose in December, a sign that President-elect Donald Trump will inherit the inflation problems that have plagued the Biden administration when he returns to the White House next week.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that annual inflation, which measures prices compared with a year earlier, climbed to 2.9% from 2.7% in November.
On a monthly basis, the rate rose to 0.4% from 0.3% a month ago, higher than expected.
The data is further evidence that progress in lowering inflation may be stalling.
On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. added 256,000 jobs last month, significantly exceeding expectations and indicating that U.S. economic growth has not only remained stable but is likely to heat up.
Trump was re-elected in part to maintain the economic momentum that took root during the Biden administration. The evidence is in the form of GDP numbers that continue to beat expectations and stock prices that are soaring to record highs.
But that growth comes at the cost of several years of soaring inflation, not to mention higher U.S. borrowing costs and rising consumer interest rates.
If these conditions persist, they could upend Trump's economic policy agenda, and many mainstream economists say it could lead to further price increases.
"Markets initially celebrated the election results, but the party atmosphere was not as good as in 2016-17," BCA Research said in a note to clients on Monday. "The macro backdrop is no longer as forgiving of deportations, inflation, and inflation as it was eight years ago." inflation and tariffs, the incoming administration may face a tougher situation than the first round."
Markets respond to the threat of further price increases by punishing stock and bond investors. The initial surge in stock prices following Trump's election in November has all but disappeared.
Meanwhile, U.S. borrowing costs, already under pressure from a surge in debt issuance, have reached new highs, while the Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to keep key interest rates high to counter the threat of further price increases.
Trump's tariff threats in particular have fueled concerns - some analysts say many consumers may have raised prices by buying in advance in anticipation of trade taxes.
"Recent economic strength coupled with the rising threat of tariffs has increased upside inflation risks," Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Asset Management Financial Group, said in a note on Tuesday.
Not all sectors of the economy are showing strong momentum. White-collar industries, reflected in the business and professional services portion of the labor force survey, have added few net jobs over the past 18 months. Wage growth in manufacturing has also stalled.
Not all economists express strong concerns that Trump's planned policies will cause prices to rise again, or that they will cause the Federal Reserve to unexpectedly raise interest rates.
"We do not expect changes in fiscal or immigration policy to significantly push inflation higher, and we find it difficult to imagine a scenario in which tariffs would cause inflation to rise enough to justify a rate hike, and not as it did in 2019," said Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a recent report.
But overall sentiment remains cautious as hopes for more "deflation" -- or a slowdown in price increases, Trump's most desired condition -- hang in the balance.
"Deflation will be more gradual from here on out," Bank of America analysts said in a note to clients this week.