ESPN released its 2025 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and forecasts, which our college football journalists break down here.

For beginners, ratings include predictions of each team record, chances of winning conference titles, and of course, this is the possibility of expanding the 12 teams playoffs and winning national titles.

FPI is a power rating that tracks the strength of each team relative to the average FBS squad. The team is rated as offensive, defensive and special teams, with value representing scores per game.

You can read Neil Paine’s takeaway here and do our staff analysis below.

Which team has FPI underestimated?

right: Even though Kenny Dillingham recently said at the Big 12 Spring Meeting that it was considered one of the "less fun" favorites after being drafted in 2024, I still think the FPI slightly underestimated the Sun Demon at No. 24. Sure, they dropped Same the Same to Same the Sam Leavit quarterback in the NFL draft, but they can also return to Sam Leavitt (2 24.85 Y). Contenders, receiver Jordyn Tyson (1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns) and defensive back Xavion Alford, as well as several other starters and staunch men from last year's Cinderella season. Dillingham is not going to back down now, now considered a favorite to win conferences, and I think he will start a lot of fires and motivation. It didn't shock me to see them playoffs again.

Mark Schrabach: I think you can argue that Clemson is one of the two best teams in the FBS entering the season (with Penn State), which is undoubtedly one of the 10 best teams, so seeing them in our colleague Jordan Reid’s initial 2026 NFL NFL Mock. Klubnik is the right person for the job and is now considered one of the most polished passers in the sport, throwing 3,639 yards and 6 interceptions last season. The Tigers have the best defensive line in the FBS, while Reid also has Peter Woods and TJ Parker in the top ten. The Tigers played LSU at home and opened the season in the final South Carolina game, but I can't see many ACC teams beat them.

Bill Connery: We can choose from a lot of non-SEC teams, but I will choose from No. 39 Iowa. The Hawkeye man has more defensive capabilities than usual, but a) I can't even pretend to be aside from the top 10 or the first 15 years of defense until otherwise proved they would have anything else, b) b) The offense was significantly improved last year (although from horrible to mediocre, it could be improved by bringing cute QBs in South Dakota. Losing the damage from running back Kaleb Johnson, but it's like a top 25 team to me, and I believe there's a lot more than the FPI's Hawkeye team that's directly ahead.

Jake Trotter: Indiana is indeed quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has performed well in one season with the Hoosiers while pushing them to their first 10-win season in playoff and school history. However, Indiana returned several of the team's main players last year, including all-around ten receivers Elijah Sarratt, defensive end Mikail Kamara, guard Aiden Fisher and cornerback D'Angelo Ponds. Hoosiers also added Cal Transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who brought extensive experience (19 careers) to Bloomington. Curt Cignetti has proven that he can coach. And with no Ohio State or Michigan, it wouldn't be totally amazing if Indiana beats the playoff gate again.

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Which team has FPI overestimated?

Pig: So we do it again, right? Every preseason, Texas A&M will get the top ten hype. Every season, Aggies cannot achieve. Texas A&M achieved double-digit victory this century (Johnny’s Football Year 2012). However, as the No. 8 team, FPI once again brought them the benefits of doubt. Mike Elko is an amazing coach, and as always Aggies has talent, including attracting double threatening quarterback Marcel Reed, a sophomore. However, last year’s Aggies ranked 51st in the offensive EPA and 47th in the defensive EPA. It hardly screams the Big Ten teams. What does it mean to suggest how different Aggies will be from the past?

Connery: We can't be sure the FPI has exaggerated Texas because if Arch Manning complies with his hype, the Longhorns are indeed probably the best team in the country. But if he is just very good and not great, the holes elsewhere may become problematic. After all, it's a team that has lost four offensive starters, its top four defensive players and the best DB in the country for Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. Steve Sarkisian obviously recruits good recruits, and the replacements can be excellent, and Texas will be very good anyway. But if Arches were all Americans, they only ranked first. No pressure.

Object: I'm having a hard time with Miami all the way up at No. 9. I can see the case for it: They have a solid core of players returning throughout the roster and head coach Mario Cristobal and his staff were transfer portal merchants this offseason, bringing in several offensive weapons such as wideouts CJ Daniels (LSU), Keelan Marion (BYU) and Tony Johnson (Cincinnati) as well as some much needed help in the secondary cornerback Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and security Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State University). Of course, the crux of the hype surrounding the Hurricanes is up to their biggest portal quarterback, Carson Beck. After losing to Cameron Ward in the draft, Cristobal & Co., is the one who should lead Georgia to the national championship after losing to Cameron Ward in the draft. I'm several skeptics.

Schrabach: Given what happened in Tennessee in the spring, I'm not sure the volunteers are the top 25 teams of the season, let alone the 10th player. I don't rank by my latest top 25 volunteers. I can see that after a quarter, I can see two efforts. Aguilar and his teammates will rallies around him or August's leap from Appalachian State to the SEC is too high. In my opinion, Vols has faced a tough offense with three top receivers on the offense after the departure of SEC-leading stormtrooper Dylan Sampson.

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Which power conference team can be conducted outside the top 25 of FPI?

Pig: Texas Tech has entered the top transfer portal in the United States, forcing the team on both sides of the ball to a team that was 8-5 last season. Over his 24 careers behind him, quarterback Behren Morton should be better after throwing 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns last year. If the portal addition is excellent on defense, coupled with the arrival of new defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, could strengthen the unit that ranked only 108th in the EPA last year, the Red Raiders could threaten conference title and playoff spots, another wide big 12 giant.

Connery: What I want to say is that half of the Big 12 are able to top 15 or top 20 and win the conference title (and hence the CFP), but I'm particularly interested in the duo of the No. 32 TCU and No. 33 Baylor. Both won six games that ended the last seven seasons, and they both returned to excellent quarterbacks in Josh Hoover and Sawyer Robertson. I feel like I trust the returnees at TCU more, but Baylor's Dave Aranda is also very active in the transfer portal. Revival - Hey, it's a better name than the Bluebonnet Battle - on October 18, the winner could be the most serious 12 contender in November.

Object: Washington (No. 27) has been disappointing in its first 6-7 seasons in the first year of the top 10 under new coach Jedd Fisch. The Huskys ranked ninth in the conference and seemed quietly stumbled upon the shadow of their more successful Northwest neighbor Oregon. But, like he showed in Arizona, Fisch can build a successful team over time. Washington has received recruiting classes for the first 25 years in the past year and has added some much-needed defensive reinforcements to the portal. Last season's quarterback Demond Williams Jr. has shown some flashes and he may break through.

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By the end of the season, which team will prove to be correct in odd rankings?

Schrabach: There is an "odd" ranking smorgasbord to choose from. I think you can argue that Texas A&M ranked 8th, Auburn, Oklahoma No. 16 and 19 USC ranked too high, No. 12 LSU, No. 29 BYU, BYU, No. 31, Indiana and Texas No. 35 technology is too low. LSU may have the best quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, coach Brian Kelly hit the gold medal in the transfer portal, landing defense ended with Patrick Payton (Florida) and Jack Pyburn and Jack Pyburn (Florida), receivers Nick Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), Baremen Brown (Kentucky), offensive Mania and Josh Moore (Wirning) Moore (Virginia (Virinemen Moore)) (Virginia Tech). However, LSU's schedule is difficult, and road races in Clemson, Ole Missy, Alabama and Oklahoma, I'm not sure they'll be better than 9-3, which will make them right at No. 12.

Object: I will mention a team and focus on USC. At first glance, I was also surprised that FPI went all the way to No. 19, given the Trojans’ disappointing 7-6 debut season in the 7-6 debut in Big 10. But the Trojans have made great strides this offseason, not just as a plan to hire USC general manager Chad Bowden, but also to bring themselves to the 2025 Port fact. Jarrett (Georgia) and Keeshawn Silver (Kentucky). But the most exciting player on the team is probably freshman defensive winger Jahkeem Stewart, who will likely make an immediate impact. Many Trojans hope to ride on quarterback Jayden Maiava this season and how he performed throughout his first season as a starter. He finished last season with 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns and should serve him the second year in Lincoln Riley's offense. USC’s schedule starts slow, but when the real test of Trojans’ potential will be in the back end of their faces with Illinois, Michigan and Notre Dame, then ending the season with Oregon, Iowa and UCLA.