On April 9, 2009, the flags of the United States and China were located behind the microphone of the Beijing Embassy of the United States.
Frederick J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images
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There is an effective U.S.-China trade embargo, which has no way back after Monday's breakthrough in reducing tariffs. China now has “mutual respect”, which has long been longing for
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC's Joe Kernen that there was a "feeling of mutual respect" in the negotiations, which U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also emphasized in his speech to the media on Monday.
This began to contrast with the first high-level bilateral meeting under the Biden administration and the insult exchange between Alaska, followed by a "balloon incident" that delayed the first visit of then-U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China in months.
Rarely, on Monday, the United States and China issued a joint statement - neither side has made a statement on climate cooperation in the "Sunnylands" since November 2023.
Looking ahead, it is crucial to see if a joint statement will be issued after the conference or the separate readings will be restored, senior advisers to world governments and business leaders who have regular conversations with senior officials in both countries, he told CNBC. Due to the sensitivity of the conversation, the source requested anonymity.
Sources expect volatility could revolve around tariffs, an important flexibility for Trump as a tool to manage relations with major powers. The source added that possible solutions could involve large purchases from China to create jobs in the U.S., while Beijing has gained the core of concessions.
While the high tariffs didn’t last long, the trauma was real. Businesses now know they need to mitigate tariff uncertainty.
"Once the post-World War II trade framework that was stable expectations; it was not even possible to restore the rollback of tariffs," Jianwei Xu, a senior economist at Natixis, said in a LinkedIn Post on Monday.
Xu added that large enterprises will continue to diversify supply chains, but small enterprises may stop production - because overall confidence is gradually disappearing with the US dollar as the ultimate global reserve currency.
In a more than expected result, the U.S. and China on Monday agreed to reduce most new tariffs on each other's goods for a total of 90 days, while both sides negotiate economic and trade policies.
That comes after China, the second largest supplier of the United States last year, the only country and territory in the United States to be attacked by "mutual" U.S. tariffs.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has returned to levels seen before trade tensions escalated in early April, while the S&P 500 has returned to positive areas of the year.
"This may just be the beginning of an inevitable collision between the two largest economies," Nomura chief Chinese economist Ting Lu said in a report on Monday.
Within half an hour of the release of the Chinese version of the United States Joint Trade Agreement on Monday, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that several ministries and provinces held a meeting to strengthen export controls on key minerals, another area in which China dominated the supply chain.
China's top executive also published a white paper on national security on Monday, first citing the Opium War, which marked the beginning of a traumatic period of China's "humiliation century" and fell into national consciousness. The white paper also has a similar narrative calling for self-reliance and playing a role as a stable force in global uncertainty.
However, according to the Business Association, China's emphasis on national security often comes at some cost.
U.S. - "Although welcomed, it still creates serious uncertainty for U.S. companies' business plans and costs, undermining their long-term global competitiveness," the China Business Council said in a statement on Monday.
But Beijing continued to slide thinly in the United States at a meeting Tuesday with leaders from Latin America and the Caribbean.
"Bullying and coercion only leads to isolation" without naming any country as listeners including the presidents of Colombia, Brazil and Chile.
Even if China's exports to the United States fell by more than 20% in April, trade data suggests that China has increased exports to Southeast Asia, the EU and Latin America.
"Despite temporary tariff probation, China continues to show that it is seeking to diversify from U.S. agricultural goods," CBA agricultural economist Dennis Voznesski said in a report Tuesday.
He warned that the seasonality and weather in South America would affect China's ability to reduce U.S. purchases.
But he noted that there were reports that China signed a letter of intent with an Argentina exporter on May 9, buying about $900 million in soybeans, corn and vegetable oil, while China resumed soybean imports from five Brazilian companies.
China's imports from Argentina rose 6.4% to $7.03 billion, according to official data access from financial data provider Feng Information.
The established trade routes cannot be easily unraveled overnight, Peking University professor Justin Yifu Lin told reporters last month that he did not expect a complete decoupling between the United States and China, mainly because of the United States' dependence on Chinese goods.
Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBC on Tuesday that U.S. products heading to China also saw tariff exemptions “very free and generously enforced.” The company helps foreign brands such as Vitamix and clinical sales online in China and other parts of Asia.
He said, like in Trump’s first administration, most of the products shipped to China end up exempting from tariffs, largely because these products have a large number of components made in China.
Looking ahead, he hopes tariffs will be cut and “the world’s largest trading relationship will continue.”
But for many companies that once rely solely on Chinese suppliers, the sudden increase in U.S. tariffs last month are just the latest reason for the expansion.
"Smarter importers have realized that when diversification, they are the safest, and therefore will continue to look for alternative sources," said Ash Monga, founder and CEO of IMEX Survice Services, supply chain management company Supply Chain Management. Last month, he launched a website called Tariff Help to find ways to diversify from Chinese suppliers.
- CNBC's Bernice OOI contributed to this report
The United States and China are talking about it. According to the Financial Times, the scene of the international conference held by Best and Chinese Finance Minister Lang Fu'an in Washington, D.C. late last month. Investment banks began to modify their growth forecasts for China after the two countries met in Switzerland over the weekend and reached an agreement.
China's real estate sector is close to stability. That's according to a Standard & Poor's report on Sunday that forecasts major household sales will drop to 2% this year, down from a 17% drop last year.
Nvidia still wants the Chinese market. Reuters reported on Friday that the U.S. chipmaker plans to release a downgraded version of its most powerful H20 artificial intelligence chip in the next two months after U.S. officials imposed export restrictions on the original models.
Shanghai's comprehensive performance last year.
Stocks in China and Hong Kong climbed Wednesday as investors continued to assess U.S.-China trade talks.
Mainland China's CSI 300 rose 1.15%, while Hong Kong's Han-Hong Kong index (including major Chinese companies) rose 1.73% as of 2 p.m. local time.
The benchmark 10-year yield on Chinese government bonds was 1.672%.
Offshore Chinese yuan weakened 0.22% of the Green Guard to 7.2114.
May 14: Tencent reports quarterly earnings after the end of the Chinese market
May 15: Alibaba reports quarterly earnings after China market ends
May 19: China reports April retail, industrial production and investment data
May 20: Chinese battery giant CATL is listed in Hong Kong; Chinese law supporting private sectors takes effect