Official data shows that China's economy will grow by 5% in 2024, in line with the government's goals, but the growth rate will be the lowest since 1990, excluding the new crown epidemic.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing showed that economic growth accelerated throughout the year, with growth of 5.4% in the final quarter, up from 4.6% in the third quarter.

The bureau's report said it was "making progress while maintaining stability" but pointed out that "external pressure and internal difficulties are increasing, and the situation is complex and severe."

The National Bureau of Statistics said the economy would "recover significantly" in the second half of 2024 after the government announced a series of stimulus measures. These include interest rate cuts, trade-in programs for consumer goods and tax incentives for home purchases.

For the full year of 2024, industrial output grew by 5.8%, driven by strong performance in manufacturing, but retail sales rose by only 3.5% despite the introduction of policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand.

Beijing has been trying to rebalance growth away from heavy reliance on exports and toward domestic consumption. However, the sluggish real estate market and the after-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic appear to continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Lynn Song, China economist at ING, said: “The key question is whether we can see consumer confidence bottom out and start a meaningful recovery. The pessimism has become quite entrenched recently and it will take some effort. It takes a lot of effort to get out of the slump.”

Some commentators have expressed concerns about the accuracy of China's economic data, given the political nature of how statistics are reported.

China is expected to be hit hardest by Donald Trump's threats to impose tariffs. The US president, who is about to take office on Monday, said he may impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports.

Some U.S. companies have been increasing imports from China in recent months in an attempt to evade tariffs — although it's unclear whether Trump's plan will be implemented immediately.

Sam Jochim, an economist at EFG Asset Management, said: “Exports grew strongly in the fourth quarter, reflecting orders brought forward by the United States in response to Trump’s tariffs.

"Manufacturing output has increased, but it is clear that these growth drivers will be difficult to sustain in 2025 if other conditions remain unchanged."