Canada's Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has in some way caused an extraordinary comeback in a fourth term in a row, winning the national election in its fourth term.

Carney defeated opposition Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre after a mid-2018 vote on that interim election dominated by big issues on Monday: Which candidate can handle Trump better, and who intends to tariffs and threaten to annex Canada?

This is a careful study of the outcome of the Canadian federal election and what happens next.

Who won the election?

Shortly after EDT on Tuesday at 22:00 (02:00 on Wednesday), National Broadcasting Corporation CBC expects the Liberal Party to win a majority in the House of Commons to form a government.

The House of Commons of 343 people - the House of Commons held a vote. A party must win 172 seats (also known as federal cycling) to form a government.

Now say whether the Liberals will surpass the majority.

How are the performance of each party?

These are seating forecasts for major Canadian political parties:

• The liberals won 168 seats.
• Conservatives won 144 seats.
• The Quebecois, led by Yves-Francois Blanchet, won the Quebec Regional Party, winning 23 seats.
• The left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, won seven seats.
• The Greens won a seat.

How did the results compare with previous years?

• In the last federal election in 2021, the Liberal Party won 160 seats. The party won 157 seats in the 2019 federal election.
• The Conservatives won 119 seats in 2021 and 121 seats in 2019.
• The Quebec group won 32 seats in 2021 and 32 seats in 2019.
• The New Democrats won 25 seats in 2021 and 24 seats in 2019.
• The Greens won two seats in 2021 and three in 2019.

What is the problem that defines this election?

Experts say Trump's threat to tariffs and annexation are key issues in this election.

Trump believes that Canada is not playing a role in preventing irregular immigration and drug trafficking to the United States, so he imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian products and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy.

The U.S. president also threatens to annex Canada. "I think it would be better for Canada to be the 51st state," Trump said in a February interview with Fox News.

"The most important factor in Canadian politics is Donald Trump," said Daniel Beland, a professor at McGill University in Montreal and director of the McGill Institute in Canada, and Daniel Beland, director of the Canadian Institute in Canada, to AL Jazeera in February.

Other issues include affordability for groceries and housing. Canada's living crisis costs have exacerbated the tenure of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, due to inflation during the league's 19th pandemic. Trudeau has been prime minister since 2015 and resigned a few months after resigning on March 9 this year.

Inflation in June 2022 was 8.1% higher than the previous year, the biggest change since 1983, according to Statistics Canada. Some Canadians accused Trudeau of soaring due to his pro-transfer agenda. Last year, Poilievre posted a comment, attacking “large uncontrolled population growth under Trudeau, which puts pressure on our housing market, health care and job markets”.

Since then, inflation has dropped to 2.3%. However, the price is much higher than the price in 2020.

Why do liberals win?

Conservative leader Poilievre received unanimous approval ratings throughout 2024, but liberals unexpectedly jumped in polls that began in February this year due to Trump’s irony about Canada.

Philippe J Fournier, analyst and creator and website 338Canada told AL Jazeera that in March, at least in Canada's voting history, at least in this century, was the first time I've seen this.

Fournier said at the time that the popularity of the Liberal Party could be explained by Trudeau's resignation, Trump's threat and Canadians' decision to "discomfort" with Poilievre.

"Poilievre uses the same style and the same language and the same strategy as Trump," Fournier said, explaining that Trump's threat to Canada has lifted swing voters from conservative leaders.

Carney has pledged to repeal some of Trudeau's unpopular policies, including carbon pricing plans, as Canadians face a crisis of cost of living.

During the campaign, Carney promised to respond to the crisis, deal with tariffs, protect workers and take over Trump directly. "I'm ready, over the years, I've dealt with the crisis... We're going to fight back against the anti-sponsors, we're going to protect our workers. We can give ourselves far more than what Donald Trump can take away."

Trump is "the elephant in the room" and Canadians need a new candidate to deal with U.S. President Bob Richardson.

"We need someone with experience. We need someone with financial experience, which (Carney) has a ton, is already the governor of the Bank of Canada and the governor of the Bank of England... He is more of a person who can handle the situation Canada has to face in the next two or three years," Richardson said.

Tari Ajadi, an assistant professor in McGill University’s Department of Political Science, told Al Jazeera that Carney “has encountered the ability and qualification to lead Canada during this uncertain time. Even though he was a rookie politician, he was able to run a good campaign”.

He explained that another major factor in the victory of liberalism was the collapse of the New Democratic Party. “A lot of these votes ended up winning the Liberals.”

What are outstanding victory, loss and surprises?

Poilievre expects to lose his ride

Conservative leaders have been behind liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy in the Carlton seat in Ontario and are expected to lose. Poilievre was first elected Carleton Riding in 2004.

NDP's Jagmeet Singh loses his ride

NDP is expected to win seven seats so far, accounting for 6.3% of the voting share. This means that the party has a less than 12% of its formal party status, which is required by parliamentary privileges (such as research funding).

Jagmeet Singh, 46, announced that he will resign as the leader of the New Democratic Party on Monday. He admitted that his party was not doing well.

Singh didn't win the ride either. He failed in the constituency of Burnaby Center in British Columbia, according to reports received by Al Jazeera.

"We are only defeated when we believe in the people who tell us that we can never dream of Canada, the more fair Canada, the more compassionate Canada," Singh said.

"These results are surprising and point to Canadians' competitive priorities: important factions that Canadians want to change, but are also afraid of threats from the United States," said Ajadi of McGill University.

"This led to votes in the center and on the left, at the expense of the NDP and the Greens," he said.

Ahadi said the election saw the Conservative Party strengthening on the right, pointing out that the party's voting share was the highest since 1998.

He said the results meant a "shy conservative" vote, which gave the Conservatives a huge seat but did not get enough seats to win the parliamentary minority.

How do party leaders react?

Carney declared his victory at a rally in Ottawa, Canada. In his speech, he promised to build a strong front in the face of Trump’s threat.

"We have built a country under harsh conditions despite having a sometimes hostile neighbor. Yes, they have formed Americans," he said.

His speech also mentioned improving housing and energy. Canadian leaders said: "We are masters in our own home. We will build millions of housing units. We will become an energy superpower. We will provide a good career in skilled industries and an economy.

Poilievre acknowledged the victory, “I would like to congratulate Prime Minister Carney on leading this minority government.

"My fellow Conservatives, we have a lot of celebrations tonight. We have won over 20 seats. Our party has received the highest voting share since 1988," he said at the election night headquarters in Ottawa.

Poilievre promises to work with liberals to deal with Trump's tariffs and annexation threat.

“Conservatives will work with the Prime Minister and all parties with a shared goal of defending Canada’s interests and obtaining a new trade agreement to protect our sovereignty while putting these tariffs behind us,” he said.

What will happen next?

After leading the liberals to victory, Carney will continue to serve as prime minister and form a new government and cabinet. After Trudeau resigned on March 9, he was sworn in.

If liberals win a majority, Carney will assemble a cabinet and develop a budget plan before reconvening the House on May 26.

If the liberals are less than the majority, they will have to work with other parties to pass the legislation of the parliament and survive without trust. In the past, the NDP became a natural companion to liberals.

The Conservative Party will form a formal opposition in parliament.

Ajadi of McGill University said Carney needs to contact other party leaders to make some kind of deal because the next government may be a minority. "The loss of confidence in the House of Commons will prompt another election," Ajadi said.

“He can rule without a partner, but that means the government always has a risk of losing confidence in the home, which is unsustainable given the wider geopolitical climate we live in.”