Pakistan's military vowed that India would "high salary" die in Pakistan after Wednesday's air strike and occupied Kashmir in Pakistan, raising concerns about a full-scale war between nuclear-weapon neighbors.
India said at least 16 Indian civilians, including three women and five children, have been reported since Pakistan began shelling at the de facto borders of two South Asian countries in Kashmir on Wednesday. Direct fire exchanges across borders also emerged overnight.
Even as hostilities spread to Thursday, both India and Pakistan stressed that they had been bound to the action and that security officials in both countries had begun to open communication. However, in order to cancel the escalation, the two countries need international mediation and a way to declare victory.
New Delhi launched a strike in response to the April 22 terrorist attack in India managing Kashmir, where 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were killed by Indian militants and expressed support from Pakistan.
Pakistan, which denies participating in the attack, claims to have partially won the Indian attack, saying it shot down five Indian fighters and 25 Indian drone. India has not confirmed these reports.
Military spokesman Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said on Thursday: “Indian drones continue to be sent into Pakistani airspace.
U.S. consulate personnel in the Pakistani city of Lahore were told Thursday to arrive asylum due to drone explosions, landed drones and possible airspace invasions in the area.
Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said New Delhi has no intention of escalating further, but if Pakistan launches a retaliatory strike, they will be encountered "very, very, very firmly" reply.
President Donald Trump, who has not yet nominated the U.S. ambassador to India or Pakistan, said Wednesday that he wants to "see them solve the problem."
"They've gone to Tat's tits and hope they can stop now," he said.
Experts say whether the conflict between India and India-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan spirals has been determined by whether Pakistan can respond adequately to it and find a political outer guardrail.
“Pakistan’s view is enough,” said Moeed Yusuf, who served as Pakistan’s national security adviser from 2021 to 2022.
“Pakistan has a real anger, a nuclear state stands up and says there has been a terrorist attack, not even providing a lot of evidence to link it with Pakistan and still keep moving forward and using military power,” said Yusuf, a senior researcher at Harvard Center for Science and International Affairs.
The attacks in Kashmir last month were fully advocated and partially controlled by India and Pakistan, the worst of the Indian civilians in two decades. India and Pakistan fought three wars in Kashmir, the only Muslim majority in India, and thousands were killed in a long separatist insurgency.
India, which has long accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, said it had “reliable evidence” that Pakistan’s involvement in Kashmir attacks and intelligence suggests that more attacks are coming without revealing details publicly.
Islamabad denied the allegations and called on India to provide evidence.
"The ball is in the Pakistani court," said Lieutenant General Deependra Singh Hooda, former head of the Indian Army Northern Command.
“The Indian view is, ‘Look, we’re tired of it.’
“We know that penetration is happening, the entire infrastructure has been around for years, so do we really need to provide exact evidence?” he said.
Yusuf and others say the international community must play an active role in resolving the situation. However, it has become even more difficult since the U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan in 2021, and its existence has been a deterrent to Indian-Pakistan violence in the past.
Trump also seems to be fully focused on securing a trade deal, "this gives India and Pakistan time to attack and fight back."
Yusuf said in Pakistan, in Pakistan, whether it should be satisfied with the landing of Indian military aircraft or the deeper shelling of Indian-managed Kashmir.
"Pakistan will not provide a rescuer for India like it would in 2019 when it voluntarily handed over captured pilots," Yusuf said, referring to the fatal attacks on Kashmir Indian security forces between the two countries, which also raised concerns about all wars between the two countries.
Donty said the bet is now higher than ever.
"It only takes a wrong calculation or error, and we know both institutions are under pressure to retaliate," he said.
He said that even if the two countries want to escalate quickly, the violence this week will have long-term effects, uniting Pakistan's "anti-Indian militants" together Increased the possibility of further attacks in India.
India said clearly: “We are willing to raise the ante.”
"If Pakistan wants to upgrade further, whatever the reason, we must wait and see."