Bolsonaro's prosecution makes Brazil's tropical Trump stare at the prospect of prison | Jair Bolsonaro

Brazilian activists project their deepest desire to the Tower of London during Jair Bolsonaro's hay president, Guy Fawkes once fell into the trap after conspiring to bomb the parliament and assassinate the king Dilemma.

"Prison Bolsonaro," their word game reads.

This week, after the former Brazilian president was formally accused of taking control of his own murder plot - allegedly overthrowing the government and assassinating enemies with bullets and poison - his critics felt that the day was finally approaching.

“I would be very worried about whether I was wearing his shoes,” said Cesar Calejon, author of several key books on Bolsenro and his radical political project.

"I don't think this process is likely to go to jail in Jair Bolsonaro," Kalehon said.

Bolsonaro's political future has been bleaker even before the charges this week, something the former president denied. In 2023, a year after he lost his left-wing rival Luiz Inácio Lulada Silva, Bolsenro was banned from seeking for misinformation in Brazil's electronic voting system due to his involvement in the false information of his electronic voting system in Brazil. office. This decision by the election authorities scans Bolsonaro's revival plan for Donald Trump in the next presidential election in 2026 and has sparked a quarrel between right-wing pretenders to claim their own Slow-burning war between crowns.

Potential heirs include governments in two Brazilian states, Sao Paulo and Minas Glas, Tasio de Fretas and Romeo Zema; the country singer has 45 million followers on Instagram called Gusttavo Lima; and Bolsonaro's wife, photogenic evangelical Christian Michelle Bolsonaro.

Eduardo Bolsonaro, the son of politician who was recently called "the future president of Brazil", also put his hat on the ring.

Calejon believes that the allegations against Bolsonaro will accelerate this succession struggle as conservative voters and leaders accept that the future of Brazil's most influential right-wing leader is almost certain to lag behind prison. If convicted, the 69-year-old politician could face more than 40 years in prison.

Lawyer Aruda Botelho, former Brazilian attorney attorney, believes the allegations against the former president are "very powerful" and clearly put Bolsonaro in "leadership" "Leadership" to prevent Lula from launching a coup.

The Supreme Court will now consider whether to accept the allegations - widely considered a foregone conclusion - and whether a criminal lawsuit will be initiated, which will see the trial on Bolsonaro's position. Botelho said five Supreme Court judges may hear the case, although it is difficult to predict how long the entire process may take. "This is not going to end in the next few months ... In my experience, it's unlikely to be done in 2025," Botelho said.

How long does it take to go, there is a sharp contrast between Bolsonaro's tragic prospect and his ally Trump's victory political counterattack, who shrugged, shrugged, accused He conspired to overthrow the 2020 U.S. election and took power back last month.

Camila Rocha, a political scientist at the CEBRAP in the Brazilian Research Center, believes that part of this explanation is that their fate is that Brazil's judiciary "really achieves the defense of democracy," which is the pursuit of the Supreme Court. Democratic behavior. "The agency failed to stop a politician who openly supported the uprising from moving forward with his (presidential) candidacy," Rocha said in the United States.

Botelho believes that Brazil's judiciary shows that it is more "strong" and "reliable" than the American system, which is "political epochists are more susceptible to impact." "The Supreme Court (Brazil) has done a great job of trying to punish coup planners and defending democratic rule of law," he said.

As Trump returns to the White House, there are concerns that the U.S. president may seek to put pressure on Brazilian authorities. "I can't say exactly how or when. But, it's safe to say that Trumpism will try to push the situation backlash for Jair Bolsonaro."

On Wednesday morning, just hours after the allegations against Bolson Roe were announced, the revenge at the Trump camp was first suggested. The New York Times reported that the U.S. president's media company is suing Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes, one of the authorities in Pro-Bolsonaro Plotters, for alleged assassination - alleged toward right-wing social media Censorship behavior is conducted online.

Some wonder if the United States will offer a Bolson Roh sanctuary at its embassy in its capital Brasilia. Given Bolsenro's connection with Hungarian far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, others suspect that the former president may try to hide in Hungary's diplomatic compound in hopes of allies winning the 2026 election and offering him a campaign Prison cards are in the form of amnesty.

"Trump is so completely unpredictable, acting like a lunatic, I just don't know if he has the ability to provide asylum to someone who is formally accused of crime," Calejon said.

Now it's certain: Bolsonaro has taken an important step towards prison. "What happened is totally historic and has the potential to be a watershed in Brazilian politics," Carleson said.

Other reports from Tiago Rogero